FINA World Championships Predictions: Men’s 400 Medley Relay

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Great Britain gave the American men a real scare in the men’s 400 medley relay at last year’s Olympics, and there’s reason to believe the Brits can do so again this year at the FINA World Championships.

The pieces are there: Backstroker Chris Walker-Hebborn is not the swimmer he once was, but world record-holder Adam Peaty is capable of a 56-mid breaststroke split like he posted at the Olympics last summer. Butterflyer James Guy, typically known as a mid-distance freestyler, and anchor Duncan Scott won’t give up much ground.

The American fortunes in this relay might depend on how close Ryan Murphy can get to his world record-setting form of last year on the backstroke leg. He gave breaststroker Cody Miller a 1.8-second advantage on Great Britain, and Peaty swam right by him.

Miller or Kevin Cordes will handle the breaststroke leg, and it seems most likely that Caeleb Dressel will swim the fly and Nathan Adrian will keep his typical anchor leg. The loss of Michael Phelps might not hurt so much here with Dressel having already posted a time of 50.87 in the 100 fly this year, faster than Phelps went all of last year.

Read below to see what Swimming World’s trio of experts think will happen in Budapest. David Rieder, John Lohn and Andy Ross will each offer their predictions for who will finish on the podium.

Men’s 400 Medley Relay

Current Records:

World Record: United States — Peirsol, Shanteau, Phelps, Walters (2009) — 3:27.28
Championship Record: United States — Peirsol, Shanteau, Phelps, Walters (2009) — 3:27.28
American Record: Peirsol, Shanteau, Phelps, Walters (2009) — 3:27.28

2015 World Champion: United States — Murphy, Cordes, Shields, Adrian — 3:29.93
2016 Olympic Gold Medalist: United States — Murphy, Miller, Phelps, Adrian — 3:27.95

Swimming World Predictions

David Rieder’s Picks:

Gold: Great Britain
Silver: United States
Bronze: Australia

John Lohn’s Picks:

Gold: United States
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: Australia

Andy Ross’ Picks:

Gold: United States
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: China

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commonwombat

6 years ago

Usual state of affairs in this one is that USA needs to self destruct NOT to win this but this year promises to be closer with GBR capable of mounting a legitimate threat.

Whilst GBR does possess the immense advantage of Peaty on BRS, this is will most likely be nullified by his need to regain ground lost by GBR’s weakest leg, Back. Whilst Scott can most likely close to, if not on, par with the US anchor; USA’s likely advantage (even if not overwhelming) on fly will most likely see him coming from behind. IF the GBR backstroker can swim anywhere near 53flat then they can most certainly render this a line-ball game but the odds are currently lying in USA favour.

Bronze ?? I’m tipping CHN who could actually be near the lead for at least 3 legs. They possess a legit gold contender in the 100back, a sub59 breastroker, a 100flyer who should final … at this point they don’t have someone in the top25 100free times for the year which may taken them out of the gold equation but should see them in clear water ahead of anyone else.

AUS ?? Just not going to happen this year, period !! Larkin at this best WOULD have AUS v close to the lead on the first leg but he hasn’t even threatened to break 53 this year. Even if he DID make a Lazarus like recovery over the next week or so, they will still be sunk by the stark reality that with Packard absent, they lack a 100 breakstroker who can break the minute. Add to that the reality that AUS male flyers remain off the pace and there’s just no coming back from deficits of 3-4sec even if McEvoy could produce a record breaking anchor split.

Rafael

6 years ago

Reply to commonwombat

There is a chance AUS might even be behind Russia, Brazil and Italy after the Breast/Fly Legs..
Probably: US, GBR, China (unless a bad leg happens) then Italy/Brazil/Russia, Germany/Australia

commonwombat

6 years ago

Reply to Rafael

If they aren’t careful and don’t swim their best team in the morning, they could find themselves missing the final.

That is the reality of how weak the AUS men’s team is at the moment. There will be more events on the men’s program where AUS is NOT represented in the final than events where they are. Larkin has looked poor and Horton & McEvoy can both be erratic performers but take them out of the equation and AUS men are a Third Division outfit.

Abderraouf Abdou

6 years ago

Gherghel Cristian

6 years ago

Gb usa