Who Is Going Back to Back? Which Women Can Defend Their Olympic Crowns

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Photo Courtesy: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

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Who Is Going Back to Back? Which Women Can Defend Their Olympic Crowns

As we enter the summer months of 2020, a summer that was supposed to be celebrating the culminations of hard work and dedication into the Olympic Games, Swimming World wanted to give readers a glimpse of what they can keep an eye on for next year during the Tokyo Olympic Games. As of this writing, there are 408 days until the Tokyo Olympics, as it will be the end of a long five-year wait after the 2016 Rio Games concluded.

Moving forward to next year, we wanted to take a look at which gold medal winners from Rio have the best shot at repeating golds in Tokyo. We highlighted the men’s events earlier this week, and now we are analyzing the women’s events. It is extremely difficult to win an individual Olympic gold medal, but to do it twice in the same event is even harder. Those that can repeat in Tokyo will add their names to a short list of swimmers that have been able to successfully defend their golds from four years prior. For example to see how hard and rare it is – only Katie Ledecky successfully defended her individual gold medal on the women’s side from 2012 in 2016, when she dominated the 800 freestyle final. There are two swimmers who won gold in Rio that have since retired – Maya DiRado and Rie Kaneto, so their title defenses are out of the question.

We have separated the women below into four categories: more than likely (would be extremely surprising if they lost), favorite (the #1 choice for gold), dark horse (not the number one choice, but it’s doable), and retirees (swimmers that are no longer competing).

More Than Likely

Katie Ledecky – 800 Freestyle

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Photo Courtesy: USA TODAY Sports-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Even though Ledecky had to eek out a victory last summer at the World Championships against Simona Quadarella, Ledecky is still the odds on favorite to win her third straight 800 free gold medal, which would make her just the fourth swimmer to achieve such a feat in any event. Last December Ledecky swam an 8:14, which was quicker than Quadarella’s silver medal winning time from Worlds. Much like Adam Peaty in the 100 breaststroke, Ledecky has staked her dominance on the 800 freestyle and she really has no peers. It is hard to see her relinquishing this gold medal, and if she can win a third straight gold, then perhaps she would cement her legacy as the greatest female swimmer of all-time.

Repeat Winners: Janet Evans (1988, 1992); Brooke Bennett (1996, 2000); Katie Ledecky (2012, 2016)

Katinka Hosszu – 200 & 400 IM

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Photo Courtesy: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Despite a blip in 2018 when Hosszu was off her game, the Hungarian has been untouchable in the 200 & 400 IM since winning the gold medals at the 2013 Worlds. She is the only female swimmer to win the same event at the World Championships (400 IM) five times, and has seemingly perfected the strength and endurance it takes to be world class in the 200 & 400 IM. Much like the rest of the women on this list, Hosszu is an incredible racer and always steps up to the occasion. She swims so many events during the year that when it is time for her to race at the end of the year, she is hardly fazed. This makes it difficult to catch her off her game, and it doesn’t look like someone has the recipe to take her down in either the 200 or 400 IM. Only one woman has won back to back Olympic gold medals in either the 200 or 400 IM, and Hosszu would join an elite list if she can do the double again in Tokyo.

Repeat Winners (200) Yana Klochkova (2000, 2004)

Repeat Winners (400) Yana Klochkova (2000, 2004)

Lilly King – 100 Breaststroke

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Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: King’s chances of defending will be dependent on whether Russia’s Yulia Efimova will be cleared to swim under a neutral flag after the Russian Federation was banned from international competition in December. Efimova right now is the only woman in the world who can compete with King in a 100 breaststroke, and if she is not there then it could be clear sailing for King in the 100 breast final. But if Efimova is allowed to compete, then it will be a heavily anticipated rematch after the famous Rio fight when King made international headlines after calling out her Russian rival for her past doping offenses. It all just depends on who will be lining up against King in the final, but no matter who is there, she will be considered a heavy favorite – King has not lost a major 100 breaststroke final in five years.

Repeat Winners: none

Katie Ledecky – 400 & 200 Freestyle

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Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Ledecky took silver in the 400 freestyle at last year’s World Championships in a stunning loss to Australia’s Ariarne Titmus, a rising teenager from the land down under. But Ledecky was sick at those championships, and in March of this year, swam within just a couple tenths of her Worlds time with a 3:59.66. That loss in the 400 free really seemed to fuel Ledecky as she was looking stronger than ever in the early days of 2020. But in pursuit of winning her three best events in Tokyo next year, the 200 & 400 are definitely going to be the most challenging for her. The 200 is stacked with huge players like world record holder Federica Pellegrini and the aforementioned Titmus. And now that the 1500 is an Olympic event, perhaps Ledecky may drop the 200 from her program altogether. But Ledecky, like the aforementioned Hosszu and King, is an incredible racer and just knows how to get her hand on the wall in an Olympic final. Calling Ledecky anything other than a favorite in a 200 or 400 freestyle is preposterous.

Repeat Winners (200) none

Repeat Winners (400) Martha Norelius (1924, 1928)

Favorites

Simone Manuel – 100 Freestyle

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Photo Courtesy: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Manuel made history in Rio by becoming the first American woman to win the 100 free at the Olympics since 1984, breaking the longest gold medal drought the Americans had in any event. And not only that, she became the first black woman to win an individual gold medal in swimming. Even with all the attention on world record holder Cate Campbell in Rio, Manuel was able to win the race on the day. And at the last two world championships, with all the attention on Campbell and Sarah Sjostrom, Manuel out-raced both of them to win gold medals in 2017 and 2019, proving that she should never be counted out. Manuel is one of the best racers in the world, and many have learned their lessons to not bet against her when she has a lane in the final. But a gold medal will not come easy for her – yes, Manuel is ranked third all-time in the 100 freestyle, but she sits behind Sjostrom and Campbell on the all-time list, who will be wanting that gold medal just as much as she will.

Repeat Winners: Dawn Fraser (1956, 1960, 1964)

Sarah Sjostrom – 100 Butterfly

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Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Sjostrom would have been considered a virtual lock to win the 100 butterfly gold in Tokyo until she was beat at the 2019 World Championships by rising star Maggie MacNeil. Sjostrom is still the world record holder, but the gap between her and the rest of the world is thinning. In the early days of 2020, Sjostrom had the fastest time in the world, proving that one loss at World Championships wasn’t going to faze her moving forward. When she won in Rio, she was the first Swedish woman to win a gold medal in swimming at the Olympics, and she won two other individual medals in Brazil. She is regarded as one of the best sprinters in history and if she wins gold in Tokyo, she will be the first woman to successfully defend the 100 butterfly gold medal at the Olympics. It’s still difficult to see her taking a silver in this event again, but MacNeil has been on fire the last 12 months and will not make it easy for the world record holder.

Repeat Winners: none

Dark Horses

Pernille Blume – 50 Freestyle

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Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: The women’s sprint events are as stacked as they had ever been. Among the ten women to break 24 seconds all-time, five of them are still active, including Blume, who is third all-time. Blume, despite being the Olympic champion, has often been overshadowed the last few years by Sarah SjostromCate Campbell and Simone Manuel, finishing fourth at the last two World Championships behind that trio. It’s a 50 freestyle, so anything can happen. Blume’s gold medal in Rio was particularly surprising since she had never medaled individually before that at the global level, and in a race with so little margin for error, Blume definitely has a shot to repeat gold in the 50 free if given a lane in the final.

Repeat Winners: Inge de Bruijn (2000, 2004)

Penny Oleksiak – 100 Freestyle

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Photo Courtesy: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Oleksiak made history in Rio by becoming the first Canadian woman to win an Olympic gold medal in swimming since 1984. It was truly a historic swim when she tied Simone Manuel for the gold medal in the 100 freestyle. Since then, Oleksiak hasn’t medaled at a major international meet in the event. But in 2019, Oleksiak showed a glimpse of her 2016 form when she won three medals on relays at the World Championships. In the early days of 2020, she had the third fastest time in the world in the 100 freestyle, putting herself as a medal favorite in Tokyo. Oleksiak is a great racer, and if given a lane in the 100 free final, will have as great of a chance as anybody in the field. But like mentioned earlier, the trio of Manuel, Campbell, Sjostrom will be extremely tough to beat. Oleksiak did it once in Rio, so no reason why she can’t do it again.

Repeat Winners: Dawn Fraser (1956, 1960, 1964)

Mireia Belmonte – 200 Butterfly

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Mireia Belmonte – Photo Courtesy: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Belmonte was a little off her game the last two years, sitting out the 2018 Europeans for an injury and not winning an individual medal at the 2019 Worlds. But Belmonte has had injury problems in the past, most notably sitting out the 2015 Worlds and coming back to win two medals at the 2016 Olympics. Belmonte did show glimpses of her 2017 form when she had a big swim for the London Roar at the ISL Finale in the 200 butterfly, putting herself eighth in the world for 2019. American Hali Flickinger has been tabbed as the front runner in the 200 butterfly at Tokyo but one cannot sleep on Belmonte as the defending champion, who always steps up at the Games. No woman has ever won back to back golds in this event, and Belmonte could very much change that with an extra year to prepare for Tokyo.

Repeat Winners: none

Katinka Hosszu – 100 Backstroke

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Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Hosszu has scratched out of the last two World Championships in this event, and although has put up impressive times in the last few years since winning gold in Rio, her chances of repeating in Tokyo in the 100 back are smaller than her chances in both IM’s. But Hosszu is a racer, and always steps up to the occasion, no matter what event she is swimming. So if she does decide to end up swimming the 100 backstroke, then a medal is certainly not out of the question.

Repeat Winners: Natalie Coughlin (2004, 2008)

Retirees

Maya DiRado – 200 Backstroke

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Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Maya DiRado retired after Rio, ending her career on the best possible note – with an unexpected Olympic gold medal in the 200 backstroke after a silver in the 400 IM and bronze in the 200. DiRado won the second straight gold for the US team which could extend through 2020 with numerous American women posing as gold medal threats.

Repeat Winners: Krisztina Egerszegi (1988, 1992, 1996); Kirsty Coventry (2004, 2008)

Rie Kaneto – 200 Breaststroke

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Photo Courtesy: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

Kaneto retired from swimming in 2018, riding off into the sunset as the first Japanese woman to win an Olympic gold medal in swimming since 1992. She was one of two of Japan’s gold medal winners in swimming four years ago, as the Japanese team will hoping to win more in front of the home Tokyo crowd.

Repeat Winners: Rebecca Soni (2008, 2012)

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Troyy
Troyy
3 years ago

Ledecky is less likely to defend the 200 than 400 with the 200 being wide open and the 400 only Titmus as a competitor at this point. No way Hosszu defends the 100 back and I doubt she’ll even swim it.

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