A Double Dip of Olympic Gold? Which Men Can Get Second Scoop

Ryan Murphy won both the 100 and 200 backstroke gold medals in Rio. Does he have a chance to repeat in Tokyo? Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Who is the most likely to repeat Olympic gold in men’s swimming in Tokyo?

As we enter the summer months of 2020, a summer that was supposed to be celebrating the culminations of hard work and dedication into the Olympic Games, Swimming World wanted to give readers a glimpse of what they can keep an eye on for next year during the Tokyo Olympic Games. As of this writing, there are 409 days until the Tokyo Olympics, as it will be the end of a long five-year wait after the 2016 Rio Games concluded.

Moving forward to next year, we wanted to take a look at which gold medal winners from Rio have the best shot at repeating golds in Tokyo. Starting with the men’s events, there are a couple that are definitely not going to happen: Michael Phelps has retired and Sun Yang is suspended. Other than those two, all the other reigning gold medalists from Rio on the men’s side are still active. Below, we have divided everyone else into three categories: Locks, Real Possibilities, and Going to be Difficult, in their quests for repeat gold in Tokyo.

A Lock

Adam Peaty – 100 Breaststroke

Adam Peaty – Olympic immortality in 57.13sec – Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: It is difficult to say any swimmer is a definite lock to win an Olympic gold medal, but Great Britain’s Adam Peaty is about as good as it gets. Peaty has not been beaten in the 100 breaststroke at a major long course meet in six years. He is the only man to break 57 or 58 seconds. That kind of dominance over 100 meters is rarely seen, but Peaty is a rare specimen. It will be truly shocking if he isn’t singing God Save The Queen on the podium next summer with another gold medal draped around his neck.

Repeat gold medal winners: Kosuke Kitajima, JPN (2004, 2008)

Definitely a Real Possibility

Mack Horton – 400 Freestyle

mack-horton-2016-rio-olympics-celebrate-gold-sit-laneline

Mack Horton – Rio victory – Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: With Sun Yang out of the picture, the road to back to back gold in the 400 has become even clearer for Australia’s Mack Horton. Since winning gold in Rio, he has been ranked number two in the world each of the last three years behind Sun. With Sun now serving an eight year ban, Horton, who was one of Sun’s most outspoken critics, is now the man to beat and will have a lot of eyes on him to see if he can win the gold medal without Sun in the field. Australia has a rich history in distance swimming as the only two men to win back to back golds in the 400 free at the Games are from the land down under.

Repeat Winners: Murray Rose (1956, 1960); Ian Thorpe (2000, 2004)

Ryan Murphy – 100 & 200 Backstroke

ryan-murphy-celebrate-100bk-gold-olympic-record-rio

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Ryan Murphy continued the United States’ winning streak in both the 100 & 200 backstroke in Rio by claiming the country’s sixth straight Olympic gold medal in both events in Rio. Murphy has since been upended at the last two World Championships by Russia’s Evgeny Rylov in the 200 and China’s Xu Jiayu in the 100. Murphy did have the top time in the world in the 100 in 2018, and has been a consistent performer internationally. One thing that we have come to know over the years about Murphy is that he can step up at any challenge and rise to the occasion. Even though he hasn’t beat Rylov or Xu head to head at the last two Worlds, he is still considered a favorite for Tokyo in both backstroke events.

Repeat Winners (100) Warren Kealoha (1920, 1924); Roland Matthes (1968, 1972); Aaron Peirsol (2004, 2008)

Repeat Winners (200) none

Kyle Chalmers – 100 Freestyle

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Kyle Chalmers had the fastest time in the world in the early days of 2020 with a 47.9 in January. He had an unexpected gold medal when he won the blue ribband event at age 18. He has had some health problems in the last couple of years but was the silver medalist at last year’s Worlds and was the Pan Pac champion the year prior. Chalmers’ main threat comes from Caeleb Dressel, who won the last two world titles and was sixth in Rio. It is a budding matchup that will only intensify as we get closer to the Games. Dressel is still the favorite but Chalmers will be hot on his heels.

Repeat Champions: Duke Kahanamoku (1912, 1920); Johnny Weissmuller (1924, 1928); Alexander Popov (1992, 1996); Pieter van den Hoogenband (2000, 2004)

*Gregorio Paltrinieri – 1500 Freestyle

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Paltrinieri was the 2017 world champion and ranked third in the world each of the last two years. But with an Olympic qualification already solidified in the 10K open water race, Paltrinieri has hinted at solely focusing on open water swimming, leaving long-time coach Stefano Morini last month. Nothing is official yet, and we will believe his departure from pool swimming when we see it. But if Paltrinieri has a lane in the 1500 free final, then he will be considered the favorite no matter who he is racing. He is a grinder in the pool, and if he gets a lead then he will keep it.

Repeat Champions: Mike Burton (1968, 1972); Vladimir Salnikov (1980, 1988); Kieren Perkins (1992, 1996); Grant Hackett (2000, 2004)

* Paltrinieri may not swim 1500 in Tokyo in favor of 10K

Going to be Difficult

Kosuke Hagino – 400 IM

kalisz-hagino-2016-rio-olympics-podium-400im

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Kosuke Hagino had some motivation issues after Rio, where he snapped the USA’s winning streak in the 400 IM dating back to 1996. Hagino was sixth at the 2017 World Championships and did not compete at the Worlds last year, as a lot of the Japanese attention shifted over to Daiya Seto. Hagino had returned to international competition at the World Cup last fall, but hasn’t dabbled in the 400 IM too much in the last 12 months. He has remained a big mystery due to his lack of competitive results, but with a lot of the attention around Seto and Chase Kalisz ahead of 2021, a lot of people have forgotten about Hagino. Perhaps an extra year of prep will help him get back in gold medal shape for the 400 IM.

Repeat Champions: Tamas Darnyi (1988, 1992); Tom Dolan (1996, 2000); Michael Phelps (2004, 2008)

Dmitriy Balandin – 200 Breaststroke

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Dmitriy Balandin won perhaps the most surprising gold medal in swimming at the Rio Olympics in 2016. Behind him with the bronze medal was 19-year-old Russian Anton Chupkov, who has been the number one ranked swimmer in the world each of the last three years. Chupkov has almost pulled the world record to the 2:05 range as he looks like the man to beat in Tokyo next year. Balandin was seventh at last year’s World Championships in the fastest field ever assembled, but had some motivation issues in the years after Rio and was considering retirement. It is going to be rather difficult to catch Chupkov next summer, but maybe Balandin has some more Olympic magic left in him.

Repeat Champions: Yoshiyuki Tsuruta (1928, 1932), Kosuke Kitajima (2004, 2008)

Joseph Schooling – 100 Butterfly

joseph-schooling-gold-medal-100-butterfly-singapore

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Caeleb Dressel has been so dominant the last few years in the 100 butterfly, winning the world title last year by over a second, that at the moment this event looks like his best shot at gold in Tokyo. Schooling was 25th in the world in 2019, and with an extra year to prepare he could get down to a 50 point again. If he does, he will be among the contenders for a medal. But catching his former Bolles club teammate looks like a daunting task for the first Singaporean gold medalist in history.

Repeat Champions: Michael Phelps (2004, 2008, 2012)

Anthony Ervin – 50 Freestyle

Photo Courtesy: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Anthony Ervin has not broken 22 seconds since winning gold in Rio, and it is going to be tough for him to get by gold medal favorites Caeleb Dressel and Florent Manaudou. Ervin remains the only swimmer to win gold at the Olympics in the same event 16 years apart, and at the age of 39, the task will be even more difficult. Ervin said back in 2018 that he was still swimming because he wanted to congratulate the men that made the team in the 50 free alongside him in the final.

Repeat Champions: Alexander Popov (1992, 1996); Gary Hall, Jr. (2000, 2004); Anthony Ervin (2000, 2016)

Out of the Question

Sun Yang – 200 Freestyle

Sun Yang; Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Sun Yang was handed an eight year doping suspension earlier this year, leaving him ineligible to win back to back in the 200 free. No man has ever successfully defended the 200 free at the Olympic Games and that streak will continue through until next year.

Michael Phelps – 200 IM & 200 Butterfly

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Michael Phelps officially retired from swimming after the 2016 Olympics after an illustrious career. After five trips to the Games and 28 trips to the podium, he decided enough was enough and hung up the goggles at the age of 31. With Phelps out of the picture, we will finally see a new 200 IM champion for the first time since 2000. And in the 200 butterfly, Chad Le Clos will be looking to win his gold medal back from 2012.

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