How Many World Records Could Fall at the Pan Pacs?

by Andy Ross

08 August 2018, 11:40am

By Andy Ross

2018 has been a fast year in the sport of swimming. Six world records have already fallen in long course meters with Katie Ledecky, Andrii Govorov, Kathleen Baker, Adam Peaty and Kliment Kolesnikov, as well as Australia’s 4×100 free relay all setting world records this year.

It doesn’t feel like the world records will stop either. The European Championships have already seen two world records go down with Kolesnikov and Peaty putting up the world’s fastest times, and the meet isn’t over yet. The Pan Pacific Championships in Japan start Thursday morning local time (Wednesday night in the United States) and could be the fastest meet in the world for 2018.

Katie Ledecky broke two world records at the last Pan Pacs in Australia in the 400 and 1500 free events. Other than those swims, it was a relatively slow meet due to bad weather and uncontrollable factors, but this year’s meet should be much quicker. So how many world records could fall in Tokyo?

PAN PACS PSYCH SHEET

Potential World Records

Anything Katie Ledecky Swims

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Katie Ledecky has already broken one world record this year, why not two? Why not three? The sky is the limit for this 21-year-old and it’s almost more likely she is going to break a world record than her to not. As for which event is under threat, who really knows? She swam the second fastest time ever in the 400 free earlier this year at the Indianapolis Pro Swim Series and she swam the third fastest in the 800 at the same meet. It will be interesting what she can do on a full rest.

Women’s 100 Free

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

The reigning Olympic gold medalist and Simone Manuel and the former world record holder Cate Campbell will be facing each other for the first time since the Rio Olympics. Campbell and Manuel currently sit second and third in the world rankings for 2018 as the duo sit behind Bronte Campbell of Australia, who will not be swimming in the meet.

The world record is a blistering 51.71 by Sweden’s Sarah Sjostrom but Campbell split a 51.00 on the end of Australia’s world record relay at the Commonwealth Games earlier this year. Manuel has been a 52.54 this year while Campbell has been slightly faster with a 52.37. It could take under 52 seconds to win the gold medal in Tokyo and that means that Sjostrom’s world record is certainly under threat.

Women’s 100 Back

Photo Courtesy: Ian MacNicol

Kathleen Baker already broke the world record this year with her 58.00 from US Nationals in Irvine. The record used to belong to Canada’s Kylie Masse at 58.10 from last year’s World Championships. Earlier in the year, Masse won the Commonwealth Games title in a 58.63, ahead of Australia’s Emily Seebohm in 58.66.

Throw in Americans Olivia Smoliga (58.75) and Regan Smith (58.83) as well as Canada’s Taylor Ruck (58.97), and the top six swimmers in the world are all competing at the Pan Pacs in Japan. It could take a 57 to win the gold medal and there may very well be two or even three swimmers under that 58.

Women’s 4×200 Free Relay

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

The United States has been knocking on the door in this event for a long, long time. The record is a 7:42.08 by China from 2009, with the United States getting as close to it as a 7:42.92 at the 2012 Olympics. Surely this is the time? Any relay with Katie Ledecky on the end is bound to be stellar, it’s just a matter of who the United States puts in the other three spots.

Based on the top four fastest swimmers this year, Ledecky (1:54.56), Allison Schmitt (1:55.82), Gabby DeLoof (1:56.55) and Leah Smith (1:56.78) aggregate up to a 7:43.71. There has to be room somewhere in there to improve because they are capable of going a 7:41.

Men’s 200 Breast

Photo Courtesy: Jason Getz/USA TODAY Sports

The men’s 200 breast world record seems to be always under threat at every major meet. The record is a 2:06.67 from January 2017 by Japan’s Ippei Watanabe and he is currently third in the world rankings with a 2:07.56 from the Mare Nostrum. Watanabe sits behind American Josh Prenot (2:07.28) who seems to be back to his 2016 form after a rough 2017.

Prenot is the Olympic silver medalist but will have his hands full with the Japanese duo of Watanabe and Yasuhiro Koseki in their home country. Koseki has only managed a 2:08.45 this year but will certainly be a threat as his 100 has gotten a lot better in 2018. Another potential medal winner is Australia’s Matthew Wilson who has consistently improved and flown under the radar to sit fifth in the world rankings.

Probably Not But Will Be World’s Fastest Time

Women’s 200 Free

Photo Courtesy: Ian MacNicol

Katie Ledecky will have her first chance to race head to head with Canadian teenage sensation Taylor Ruck. Ruck will be joining Ledecky on campus in Palo Alto later this year but this week in Tokyo they will be fierce rivals in the pool. Ledecky currently has the world’s number one time from the Santa Clara Pro Swim Series with her 1:54.56. Ruck is currently second at 1:54.81 and Australia’s rising teen Ariarne Titmus is third at 1:54.85.

All three will likely lock horns in the 200 free in Tokyo unless Ledecky or Titmus decides to scratch to focus on the 800 later in the session. Throw in Japan’s Rikako Ikee and you have one of the can’t miss races of the meet.

Women’s 400 IM

Photo Courtesy: Scott Grant

No Katinka Hosszu. No Mireia Belmonte. That leaves the door wide open for someone like Canada’s Sydney Pickrem or Japan’s Yui Ohashi in the 400 IM to put up the world’s number one time. Pickrem was bronze medalist in Budapest last summer at the World Championships behind Hosszu and Belmonte.

The number one time in 2018 has been a 4:34.65 by Italy’s Ilaria Cusinato from the Sette Colli, a time that would not have medaled last year at the World Championships.

Pickrem will have her hands full with the home favorite Ohashi as well as whichever two Americans can make it through to the final.

Men’s 400 IM

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

This has to be the most hyped race for the 2018 Pan Pacs. All three medalists from the 2016 Olympics are set to compete with home favorites Kosuke Hagino and Daiya Seto set to give the Tokyo crowd something to cheer about. But standing in their way is the heir to American IM domination in 24-year-old Chase Kalisz.

Kalisz (4:08.25) and Seto (4:08.98) are already first and second in the world rankings this year. Hagino has been a 4:10.69 already this year, sitting fourth behind American Jay Litherland.

All three guys will come to Tokyo on night one ready to play. Whoever comes out first will easily have the world’s number one time. But that 4:03.84 by Michael Phelps is out of reach for right now, but may be up for grabs by the time we hit the final in two years at the Olympics.

Men’s 100 Free

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

The 2016 Olympic gold medalist Kyle Chalmers and the 2017 World Champion Caeleb Dressel could potentially face each other in the final for the first since the 2016 Olympics. Chalmers had a pretty solid Commonwealth Games earlier in the year where he won gold in the 200 free and silver in the 100.

The number one time for 2018 is a 47.75 by Russia’s Vladimir Morozov. Oddly enough the highest ranked Pan Pacs swimmer on the list is Japan’s Katsumi Nakamura (47.87), who could play spoiler and upset everybody in the final. After Nakamura, it’s the Brazilian duo of Pedro Spajari (47.95) and Gabriel Santos (47.98).

American Nathan Adrian and Australian Jack Cartwright are also capable of going a 47-high and it could be anyone’s race to win the gold medal.

It’s very likely that the winner will be around a 47-mid, it’s just a matter of who that person is going to be to touch the wall first.

Women’s 100 Fly

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Japan’s Rikako Ikee already is first in the world rankings, tied with Sweden’s Sarah Sjostrom at 56.23. Sjostrom already won the European title so it is up to Ikee if she can swim faster and become just the third swimmer to go a 55 in the 100 fly. Ikee will have her hands full though as Emma McKeon (56.61) and Kelsi Dahlia (56.83) are third and fourth in the world rankings.

Both McKeon and Dahlia swam their times at the selection meets for the Pan Pacs, so both could swim faster with more fine-tuning. Either way, it wouldn’t necessarily be surprising if the winner breaks 56 seconds in the final.

Subscribe

Login

Notify of

new follow-up comments new replies to my comments

Label

{} [+]

Name*

Email*

Welcome to our community. We invite you to join our discussion. Our community guidelines are simple: be respectful and constructive, keep on topic, and support your fellow commenters. Commenting signifies that you agree to our Terms of Use

Label

{} [+]

Name*

Email*

Welcome to our community. We invite you to join our discussion. Our community guidelines are simple: be respectful and constructive, keep on topic, and support your fellow commenters. Commenting signifies that you agree to our Terms of Use

2 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Andrea McHugh

5 years ago

Pickrem scratched all her events

0

Reply

Author

Andy Ross

5 years ago

Reply to  Andrea McHugh

Hmm. It appears she has. I did not view the updated start lists in time it seems. Also noticed Emma McKeon dropped out of the 200 free.

0

Reply