The Favorites for Gold in the Men’s Events at the Tokyo Olympics

by David Rieder - Senior Writer

09 July 2021, 08:17am

The Favorites for Gold in the Men’s Events at the Tokyo Olympics

After previously ranking the women’s events based on their favorite or favorites to win gold medals at the Tokyo Olympics in a week, it’s time to take a look at the 14 individual men’s events. Once again, there’s a wide range of event statuses, from the world-record holding, world champion superstars who cannot be touched in anyone’s wildest imaginations to events where almost anyone could come up with a different pick for gold medals. It’s worth mentioning that Sun Yang’s four-year doping suspension profoundly changed the landscape for two events, the 200 and 400 free, where Sun finished first at the last two World Championships.

The categories will include the same ones used in the women’s analysis: Heavy Favorites; Slight Favorites; Multiple Contenders; and Wide Open. We will also add a fifth category, Unproven Favorites. That’s because in two events, the favorite for Olympic gold is a man who has never competed in that particular event at a World Championships or Olympics.

Heavy Favorites

100 Breaststroke: Arno Kamminga has had a fine year by becoming just the second man to ever break 58 in the 100 breast. Michael Andrew is knocking on that door, too. But there’s no way anyone is beating Adam Peaty for Olympic gold in the 100 breast. He has been as fast as 57.39 this year, and it’s clear Peaty is pointing toward a massive swim at the Olympics. After winning Olympic gold in 2016, he made clear his goals of “Project 56,” and he completed that chase in 2019. His world record stands at 56.88, and expect that to go down at the Tokyo Olympics.

Kristof Milak — Photo Courtesy: Deepbluemedia/Insidefoto

200 Butterfly: The 200 fly has been stuck in neutral for years, except for Kristof Milak. At the 2019 World Championships, he pulled off a jaw-dropping performance when he lowered Michael Phelps’ decade-old world record in the 200 fly with his 1:50.73. This year, he has already beaten Phelps’ previous record twice and swum as quick as 1:51.10 at the European Championships. He currently ranks three seconds ahead of anyone else in the 2021 world rankings, and he could threaten the 1:50 barrier in Tokyo.

100 Butterfly: Caeleb Dressel has been absolutely dominant in the 100 fly over the past five years. He’s the only man to ever break 50 in a textile suit, and he’s done that on five occasions, including twice at the U.S. Olympic Trials last month. Like the previous two events, expect Dressel to lower his world record of 49.50 in Tokyo. But there was a very slight hesitation about placing him into the “heavy favorites” category here, only because Milak is really good in the 100 fly, too. He won the European championships in 50.18, and he could dip under 50 by the Olympics. But the guess is Dressel is too good for a serious challenge.

50 Freestyle: Different event, pretty much the same story with Dressel. The 50 free will be the third of his three individual events, and Dressel’s time from Olympic Trials (21.04, which tied his American record) is almost four tenths ahead of anyone else in the world rankings, a huge margin in the 50 free. Cesar Cielo’s world record has stood for 12 years at 20.91, and Dressel will be gunning for that mark. The 50 free can be unpredictable, but Dressel has not been seriously challenged in this event at either of the last two World Championships.

Slight Favorites

Daiya Seto after setting the world record in the 400 IM (SCM) at the 2019 ISL final in Las Vegas — Photo Courtesy: Gian Mattia D’Alberto/LaPresse

400 Individual Medley: For the fifth straight Games, the men’s 400 IM will open the swimming finals at the Tokyo Olympics, and Japan’s Daiya Seto will be aiming for the home country’s second straight Olympic gold in the event after Kosuke Hagino in 2016. Seto was the world champion in the event in 2019, and his best time of 4:06.09 ranks fifth all-time, but he has not been faster than 4:09.02 all year, leaving him vulnerable. American Chase Kalisz, the 2016 Olympic silver medalist and 2017 world champion, ranks second in the world this year in 4:09.09, and David Verraszto, Leon Marchand and Lewis Clareburt have all been under 4:10, with world junior record-holder Ilya Borodin and 2019 Worlds silver medalist Jay Litherland in striking distance. So Seto has his work cut out for him.

200 Breaststroke: This event could have gone into “Multiple Contenders” but Anton Chupkov deserves to be called favorite since he is the two-time world champion and world record-holder at 2:06.12. But Australia’s Zac Stubblety-Cook swam a 2:06.28 in June, and Japan’s Shoma Sato has a 2:06.40 to his credit this year. This event has improved so rapidly that these three men could push into the 2:05 range. Chupkov gets the nod as favorite due to his track record but just barely.

100 Freestyle: This is another Caeleb Dressel event, and while he’s surely most people’s pick for the gold medal, he will have numerous real challengers. Romania’s David Popovici is the fastest swimmer in the world after the 16-year-old swam a 47.30 world junior record at the European Junior Championships, and Russia’s Kliment Kolesnikov (47.31) is also ranked ahead of Dressel (47.39), with Italy’s Alessandro Miressi and Australia’s defending Olympic gold medalist Kyle Chalmers right behind. Chalmers, in particular, is a threat after he and Dressel raced to the wall at the 2019 World Championships in a race where both men swam their best times. Dressel will chase another Cesar Cielo world record (46.91), and he’s the favorite, but he is certainly beatable.

200 Backstroke: Evgeny Rylov has held off 2016 gold medalist Ryan Murphy to win gold at the last two World Championships, and that shapes up as the likely finish for the Tokyo Olympics. Earlier this year, Rylov swam a 1:53.23 to move to fifth all-time in the event, while Murphy’s best time this year is almost a second behind (1:54.20). Murphy is pointing toward some fast swims in Tokyo, and he has a track record of performing well at the Olympics, but that’s a pretty large gap to make up.

Multiple Contenders

Kliment Kolesnikov — Photo Courtesy: Mine Kasapoglu / ISL

100 Backstroke: Four men could win this race, and none of those outcomes would be surprising. Ryan Murphy is the defending Olympic gold medalist and world-record holder. Xu Jiayu is the two-time world champion and second-fastest man ever. Russians Kliment Kolesnikov and Evgeny Rylov are the top two swimmers in the world this year, with times of 52.09 and 52.12, respectively. Murphy swam a 52.22 at U.S. Olympic Trials, while Xu’s season best is just 52.88 with more certainly to come in Tokyo.

1500 Freestyle: The three favorites in this race were the top three finishers at the 2019 World Championships and the only men to break 14:40 since the Rio Olympics: Germany’s Florian Wellbrock, Ukraine’s Mykhailo Romanchuk and Italy’s Gregorio Paltrinieri. Paltrinieri is the defending Olympic gold medalist, and he posted one of the most impressive swims during the pandemic year 2020 with his 14:33.10 1500 free that was the second fastest time ever. But Paltrinieri has dealt with mononucleosis this year, while Wellbrock has the world’s top time (14:36.45) and Romanchuk was the European champion in May.

Unproven Favorites

Australia’s Elijah Winnington after qualifying for his first Olympic team — Photo Courtesy: Delly Carr/Swimming Australia

400 Freestyle: The men’s 400 free is the first of the events with an unproven favorite as 21-year-old Elijah Winnington competes at a World Championships or Olympics for the first time. Winnington won Australia’s Olympic Trials in 3:42.65, and the only other swimmers under 3:44 this year are fellow Australians Jack McLoughlin and Mack Horton, the reigning Olympic gold medalist locked off the team for Tokyo. Seven other men have been 3:44s this year, but this race is about the two Australians. McLoughlin has qualified for several international finals, but he has only won medals at the Commonwealth Games and Pan Pacific Championships. So yes, some very unproven favorites.

200 Individual Medley: Michael Andrew made history at the 2019 World Championships as the first man to qualify for the final in all four 50-meter events. He did not swim the 200 IM. But he broke out at U.S. Trials by swimming a 1:55.26, making him the fifth-fastest man in history and the gold medal favorite for the Tokyo Olympics. Only one other man (Duncan Scott) has broken 1:56 this year. Andrew should have a handful of significant challengers (Scott, Mitch Larkin, Daiya Seto and Chase Kalisz among them), and his freestyle is a major weakness, but it would be foolish to call anyone else the favorite.

Wide Open

Duncan Scott — Photo Courtesy: Georgie Kerr

200 Freestyle: This one could end up with a lot of different outcomes. After 1:44s were scarce for several years, five men (Duncan Scott, Tom Dean, Katsuhiro Matsumoto, Martin Malyutin and Hwang Sunwoo) have all been in that range this year, while Danas Rapsys, who was the first-place finisher at the World Championships before he was disqualified for a false start, has a season-best time of 1:45.72 that ranks 13th in the world. The winner could come from that bunch, or another swimmer who specializes in different events could end up making a run in the 200 free (Kristof Milak, perhaps).

800 Freestyle: In the Olympic debut of the men’s 800 free, a lot of swimmers could win the race or claim an Olympic medal. Gregorio Paltrinieri is the reigning world champion and top-ranked swimmer in the world, but he has been battling mononucleosis. Jack McLoughlin and Mykhailo Romanchuk have both been 7:42s this year. Henrik Christiansen and David Aubry won medals at the 2019 Worlds, Gabriele Detti has been strong in this event, Felix Aubock could make an impact and the fourth-ranked swimmer in the world in this event is Tunisia’s Ahmed Hafnaoui, a newcomer to the international scene.

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Benjamin Walsh

2 years ago

Hey coach david

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Dudley Ristow

2 years ago

The100m Free is going to sizzle.

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