3 Questions to Answer in Swimming’s New Year (Part I)
With a New Year upon us, it is natural to gaze ahead and consider some of the plotlines within the sport. So, as part of a multi-piece series, Swimming World will pose some leading questions that figure to be answered over the next 12 months. We open the series with the following three questions:
Is a Sub-57 Women’s 100 Backstroke on the Horizon?
With the United States’ Regan Smith owning the world record at 57.13 and Australian Kaylee McKeown possessing a best of 57.16, the women’s 100-meter backstroke seems poised to visit 56-second territory in the near future. Smith and McKeown have produced the 24-fastest performances in history, and 28 of the 29-fastest marks of all-time, so it would be surprising to see another athlete go 56-point ahead of the American or Aussie.
Smith and McKeown share one of the top rivalries in the sport and have undoubtedly pushed one another to their current heights, whether in the 100 backstroke or 200 backstroke, or in the long-course and short-course pools. Smith and McKeown will likely face off at this summer’s Pan Pacific Championships in Southern California, which could be the site of a barrier-breaking moment in the 100 back.
Can the United States Men Locate a Top-Tier 100 Backstroker?
It’s not often that Team USA is faced with uncertainty in the 100 backstroke, but that scenario has arisen. Last year, the top-ranked American in the 100 backstroke was Will Modglin, whose clocking of 52.54 from the World University Games slotted him 11th for the 2025 season. In an era where sub-52 is becoming more commonplace, the U.S. will need something faster, particularly for its 400 medley relay.
Modglin is the best bet to fill the void left by Ryan Murphy, the future Hall of Famer who took a well-deserved break following the 2024 Olympic Games. Whether or not Murphy returns to international waters, the U.S. needs someone to step up, and Modglin is positioned to be the answer. Not only did he take a major step forward with his performance at the World University Games, Modglin set an American record in the 100-yard backstroke. Since Modglin has excelled in both long course and short course, he can be expected to take further strides in the big pool.
But depth and competition are also needed in the event, so it will be interesting to see who else is capable of becoming stalwart. Daniel Diehl (52.94) joined Modglin in sub-53 territory last year and Tommy Janton checked in with a best of 53.00. While both have potential, they’ll need significant drops to become players on the global scene. At last year’s World Champs, it took sub-52 to make the podium and 52.57 to make the final of the 100 backstroke.
Will Kyle Chalmers Join the 46 Club in the 100 Freestyle?
Australian Kyle Chalmers is one of the greatest 100 freestylers in history, having captured an Olympic title in 2016 to go with a pair of silver medals in Tokyo and Paris. The 27-year-old is also a world champion in the event and has fueled Australian relays on numerous occasions. The only missing bullet point on his resume? A sub-47 performance.
Chalmers owns 14 of the 20-fastest 100 freestyles in Australian history, including a pair of 47.08 markers that rank him as the No. 3 Aussie performer of all-time. In a year that will feature opportunities at the Commonwealth Games and Pan Pacific Championships (if he opts for both), Chalmers could tick off that 46-point effort. As one of the best closers in the sport, the talent is clearly there to join a club that currently has six members.
As the sport continues to get faster, visiting the 46-second realm might be required of Chalmers in order to reach the podium in upcoming international competitions. Chinese Olympic champ Pan Zhanle has shown his ability with a world record of 46.40 while Romanian David Popovici has routinely gone sub-47, including a best of 46.51 that delivered last year’s world title. Meanwhile, American Jack Alexy packaged a quartet of 46-second marks in 2025, and is staring at his best days.