3 Questions to Answer in Swimming’s New Year (Part II)
As we navigate through the early days of 2026, it is natural to look ahead and wonder about the months ahead. What types of performances will we see from veteran champions? Who will emerge as a breakout star? These are just two questions that can be asked about the New Year, and Swimming World is wondering about others as well in a multi-part series.
Here is Part II of Swimming World’s Questions for 2026.
Will Summer McIntosh Break the Longstanding World Record in the 200 Butterfly?
There was a time when the world record in the women’s 200 butterfly seemed untouchable. During the height of the 2008-2009 super-suit era, China’s Liu Zige clocked 2:01.81, a performance that until recently was more than a second faster than anyone in history. Now, however, the mark is under assault, and it’s not surprising that the athlete threatening the standard is Summer McIntosh.
On three occasions during 2025, McIntosh went sub-2:03 in the 200 butterfly, including a gold-medal winning effort of 2:01.99 at the World Championships in Singapore. That outing left the Canadian star just .18 shy of Liu’s record and fully altered the belief that 2:01.81 would be the event standard for years to come. Rather, that world record is on life support. McIntosh first put the record on notice with a 2:02.26 swim at the Canadian Trials for the World Champs. For a 2025 encore, she went 2:02.62 at last month’s U.S. Open.
McIntosh is already the world-record holder in the 400 freestyle, 200 individual medley and 400 IM and a fourth world mark is clearly a target in the 200 fly. Now training at the University of Texas, McIntosh’s best opportunities for Liu’s record figure to be Canadian Nationals in June or this summer’s Pan Pacific Championships in Irvine, California. Maybe she’ll make a run earlier, perhaps in Pro Series competition. Bottom line: McIntosh is stalking the 16-year-old record, and it won’t be able to run away for long.
How Close Can Kate Douglass Get to the World Record in the 100 Breaststroke?
We already know Kate Douglass as a multi-event star who earned an Olympic title in the 200 breaststroke. But the 2025 season saw Douglass venture into the 100 breaststroke and in impressive fashion, evident by the silver medal she earned at the World Championships. While the University of Virginia product has multiple options when it comes to her schedule at international meets, let’s hope the 100 breaststroke remains part of her program.
If Douglass follows through with the 100 breaststroke and contests the event at the Pan Pacific Championships, how close can she get to the world record of 1:04.13, held by Lilly King since 2017? Douglass owns a best mark of 1:05.27 in the 100 breast, so she remains a hefty margin shy of the global standard. However, she seems poised to go sub-1:05 and her combination of natural speed and closing power give her the tools necessary to produce a sizable jump in what is a relatively new event for the American star.
Which Version of Pan Zhanle Will We See?
Chinese freestyler Pan Zhanle is one of the most enigmatic athletes in the sport. While Pan ran away with the gold medal in the 100-meter freestyle at the 2024 Olympic Games, he failed to advance out of the semifinals in the event at last summer’s World Championships. On other occasions, he has been sharp in one discipline, but well off the mark in another. So, which version will we see in 2026?
Without a global-championship meet this year, Pan’s focus will likely be on the Asian Games, scheduled for the fall in Tokyo. Chinese swimmers have long placed significant emphasis on the Asian Games, often valuing the competition more than the World Championships. If Pan invests himself in the meet, we’re likely to see a swimmer similar to the one who clocked a world record of 46.40 in the 100 freestyle at the Olympics in Paris.