Morning Splash: Struggling Australians Look to Mitch Larkin and Cate Campbell

Photo Courtesy: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

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By David Rieder.

Four years after a disastrous performance in the pool at the Olympic Games, the Australians arrived in Rio with high expectations, perhaps even to capture double-digit gold medals.

On night one, they lived up to the hype. Mack Horton held off Sun Yang to win gold in the men’s 400 free before the tandem of Bronte and Cate Campbell pushed the women’s 400 free relay squad past Australia and onto the top of the podium.

Emma McKeon also qualified second behind Sarah Sjostrom headed into the final of the women’s 100 fly, so it appeared the Aussies had a chance to open day two with another podium finish. But McKeon bombed in the final, adding two tenths of a second, and in a tight field, she fell to seventh place.

An hour and a half later, the men’s 400 free relay squad finished a disappointing third when James Roberts and James Magnussen could not keep pace with the Americans and the French.

They could not rebound on day three. Promising breaststroker Georgia Bohl didn’t even make the semifinals of the women’s 100 breast, and Thomas Fraser-Holmes just missed out on the top-eight in the men’s 200 free. Surely, though, the dependable backstrokers—Emily Seebohm and Mitch Larkin had both swept the 100 and 200 back at the 2015 World Championships—would come through for at least a podium finish.

That did not happen. Seebohm led the 100 back final at the halfway point but fell all the way to seventh, ahead of only her teammate Madison Wilson—herself the silver medalist in the event at Worlds last year. Larkin, too, took the race out hard and led the way at the 50, but Ryan Murphy pulled away to win gold, and Larkin fell behind Xu Jiayu and David Plummer to finish three one-hundredths off the podium.

The Aussies did break the 0’fer on day four when Emma McKeon won a bronze in the 200 free, but the men’s 800 free relay squad missed out on a podium finish. So halfway through the competition, the Aussies have accumulated four total medals, two gold and two bronze. In comparison, the U.S. has seven golds and 18 total medals, and four other countries have won as many as the Aussies.

If Australia has hopes of a rebound, it has to start this morning. In Swimming World’s official Olympic predictions, we picked gold medals for the Aussies in two of the events on tap, the women’s 100 free and men’s 200 back.

The man front and center in the 200 back is none other than Larkin, trying to recover from his first major setback since he broke out with two gold medals at the World Championships last summer. It’s not that his 52.43 was a bad swim by any means—it was only three tenths off his best time—but without a doubt, his fourth-place finish upped the stakes for the 200 back.

But there will be obstacles in his way—Radoslaw Kawecki and Evgeny Rylov both won medals in the event at the World Championships last year, and Rylov has already swum well in Rio with an impressive 52.74 in the 100 back that placed him sixth.

But then there’s Murphy, who long ago proved he talent and Monday night delivered the best swim of his career in the biggest moment. His winning time of 51.97 was an Olympic record and the second-fastest time in history, just three one-hundredths shy of Aaron Peirsol’s seven-year-old world mark.

Murphy knows how to swim the 200 back almost as well, having posted a 1:53.95 at U.S. Olympic Trials last month. But if Larkin slips up at all—he enters seeded first at 1:53.17—that will be another Australian favorite upset.

Then there’s Cate Campbell, back in the water for the first time since the big relay win Saturday night and heavily favored in the 100 free. She set the world record in the event last month at 52.06, and she was the only swimmer to split under 52 in the entire relay field.

Thankfully for Australia, Cate’s biggest threat for gold might be her sister, Bronte, who was the World Champion last summer in both the 50 and 100 free. Bronte’s 52.15 relay split was second-best, and both sisters have had three days of recovery time to prepare for the individual race.

That said, Sarah Sjostrom still figures to be tough after she won gold in the 100 fly in world record-time and finished second behind Katie Ledecky in the 200 free. And then there’s Ranomi Kromowidjojo, who surely has big plans to defend her gold medal from four years ago.

Sure, the Aussies have other chances for gold medals this week, including in tonight’s finals with Madeline Groves seeded first heading into the women’s 200 fly final and both McEvoy and Chalmers in prime position for the men’s 100 free. The Campbell sisters will also have the 50 free coming up this weekend, and the Australian women’s 400 medley relay squad still figures to be formidable.

But if Cate Campbell swims like she has all year in the 100 free, she won’t be beat. In a week full of big disappointments for the Australian squad, missing out on a gold medal in the women’s 100 free might top all.

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