Is Michael Phelps Right? A Statistical Nerd’s Analysis

May 15, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Michael Phelps speaks with the media after the finals at the Mecklenburg County Aquatic Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Photo Courtesy: Jeremy Brevard - USA TODAY Sports Images

By Patrick Murphy, Swimming World Intern

At the Charlotte Arena Pro Series, Michael Phelps swam his first 200 fly in years. He was asked about the status of the 200 fly.

“It’s interesting watching the world in this event. If you look at what Malchow won in 2000, still what everyone is going nowadays. It’s really not that fast of an event. We would do a thing where we would count how many times Malchow would go 1:55. It was something like 25 times. There aren’t that many people in the world that can break 1:55.”

This got me thinking: Is Michael Phelps right? Has the 200 fly not progressed since Tom Malchow? Which events have improved? Which ones have barely improved? Below is my best attempt to answer these questions. The answers may not be what you expect, because I definitely anticipated different results.

I will analyze event progression two different ways over the past 11 years.

First, I will find the top two times in the US in a given year. Note: this is not necessarily the two Olympic qualifiers or World Champ qualifiers, but rather the fastest two swims in the calendar year. This will be my method of determining the progression of the superstars in the US.

Then I will examine the top six times in the US in a given year. Again, this is not necessarily the National Team qualifying time, but rather the six fastest times from the year.

Top Two Superstar Analysis

What events have improved the most for the top two in the country?

200 IM– This makes sense, because since 2004, the top two in this event have been Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte with the exception of 2009 (because Phelps elected not to swim it). That explains why the top level has dropped the most percentage time since 2004. One thing to note though is that since 2007, this event has not dropped much time, and it shows a steady ascent since 2011. Again, this makes sense since Phelps and Lochte have moved further away from their prime each season. Look for this event to fall back in terms of percentage improvement once Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte hang up the goggles.

Photo Courtesy: Richard Lautens

100 Back– The fact that the US has gone one-two in the 100 Back in the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, and this event has improved the second most percentage-wise since 2004 makes this without a doubt the best event for the US men right now. In 2004, there was 21-year-old Aaron Peirsol and the world record holder Lenny Krayzelburg at the back end of his career. In 2008, Aaron Peirsol and Matt Grevers dominated.

In 2012, Matt Grevers and Nick Thoman successfully continued the streak. Now, we have Grevers, David Plummer, and Ryan Murphy. Based on Murphy’s youth and the potential of Jacob Pebley, Jack Conger, and other youngsters, this event looks to be in good hands moving forward. One thing to note is that top two in the 100 Back is slower now that it was in 2007, but our US times still rank top in the world, so that is okay.

200 Fly- The first two events were expected, but the 200 fly is a bit of a surprise just based on Michael Phelps’ comments. In 2004, Michael Phelps and Tom Malchow were dominant in the 200 fly. Now, the US doesn’t seem to have any 200 flyers that dominate in the world.

Yes, Tom Shields had a nice drop last summer, but he and the rest of the US need to improve to compete with the world’s bests. While the progression looks good on paper, it pales in comparison to the rest of the world. If Michael Phelps decides to swim the 200 fly this summer, the 200 fly percentage will improve.

What events have improved the least for the top two in the country?

200/ 400 Free– This should come as no surprise to anyone. Mid-distance freestyle is the single biggest hole for the United States men right now. With Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte focusing elsewhere, the 200 free is the weakest it has been since the pre-Phelps era. In fact, many people believe the US is in danger of losing the 800 free relay this summer in Kazan.

The US has had a stranglehold on this event ever since I became interested in swimming (and by stranglehold, I mean complete domination). Like the 200 free, the 400 free is slower now than it was in 2004. The difference here though is that Conor Jaeger, Conor Dwyer, and Michael McBroom have showed the potential to take over this event and be superstars. In the 200 free, other than Conor Dwyer and Reed Malone, who is the future of this race?

200 Back– While the 200 and 400 free serve as no surprise, the 200 back comes as a huge shock. Also, while Americans should be concerned about the 200 and 400 free, they shouldn’t be worried about the future of the 200 back. In 2012 and 2013, the 200 back was significantly faster than in 2004. The event is simply going through a transition period from Ryan Lochte to younger guys like Ryan Murphy. Look for the top 2 in the 200 back to improve drastically in coming years as the young stallions reach their potential.

Depth Analysis: Top Six

Now that we analyzed which events have improved the most and least for the US superstars over the past decade, we will investigate US depth. The first thing you will notice in the graph below is that the 6^th fastest time in every single event is faster now than it was in 2004.

That is a testament to the overall improvement of USA Swimming at all levels: college, club, age group, summer league, etc. In the early 2000s, we had a few great swimmers who dominated the world, but now we have ten guys in some events ranked in the top 50 in the world. Now, that is depth.

Which events have developed the most depth?

100 Fly– While the 100 fly lacked superstar improvement over the past 10 years due to the dominance of Michael Phelps and Ian Crocker in 2004, the depth has improved more than any other event. This makes sense and confirms the Phelps effect. In 2004, the US had the two best butterflyers in the world in Michael Phelps and Ian Crocker. That gave the rest of the world and the country people to chase. Because Phelps and Crocker were so far ahead back in 2004, the top level has not gotten any faster (evidenced in previous section). In fact, it has actually gotten a bit slower, but the overall depth in the event now is unbelievable compared to eleven years ago. As a result of Michael Phelps’ dominance, this event has improved drastically (Phelps Effect).

200 Breast– This is the first time a rule change has impacted the statistical improvement. Who remembers when Kosuke Kitajima cheated won in the 100 breaststroke at the 2004 Olympics? Anyone remember his illegal fly kick? I sure do.

Well, following the 2004 Olympics, it became legal for breaststroke underwater pulls to include a butterfly kick. That has drastically improved breaststroke times around the world. So while the 200 breast depth in the US has improved quite a bit, if not for the rule change, it probably would not be sitting second.

200 Fly– Here is the second instance of the Phelps effect causing improvement. It makes sense, right? If you watch the best 200 flyer in history dominate for so long, people are eventually going to learn from him. That has happened in the 200 fly. In 2004, there was not much depth in this event, but now the US has many guys who swim in the 1:56 range, like Phelps said above.

Jun 21, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Michael Phelps (USA) won the Men's 200IM championship in a time of 1:59.39 during the Championship Finals of day four at the George F. Haines International Swim Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Photo Courtesy: Robert Stanton/USA Today Sports Images

Which events have developed the least from a depth perspective?

100 Free– This should be extremely concerning for Americans. Not only is the 100 free far and away the event with the least improvement in depth since 2004, this is one of two events where top six depth actually matters for relay purposes. I wish I had good news for American swim fans, but other than the suit era in 2008 and 2009, top six in the US men’s 100 freestyle has been incredibly stagnant.

Look at the chart below. The sixth time dropped to 48.8 in 2012 and 2013 but regressed slightly last year. Hopefully, some veterans have great years next year (i.e. Cullen Jones and Anthony Ervin) and some young guns realize their potential in this event (i.e. Seth Stubblefield and Caeleb Dressel) or else we are in trouble heading to Rio.

200 Back– This is misleading. In 2014, the 200 back had its slowest sixth ranked time since 2006. 2014 was not a pretty year for the 200 back, but this year should be a lot better. In 2013, it took 1:56 to be ranked in the top six in the country, but in 2014, it took a 1:58 high. A possible explanation for this is simply that some top backstrokers, Jack Conger and Drew Teduits, performed slower in 2014 compared to 2013. If I use times from 2013 instead of 2014, the event improvement is 2.63 percent, which ranks the 200 back with the likes of the 100 breast and 100 back. Look for this event’s depth to show in the next couple of years.

400 Free– The depth is coming in this event. Slowly but surely, the 400 free is improving in the US. Like I said in the previous section, we still don’t have dominant stars in this event, but it is getting deeper every season. The lower percentage improvement in this event is more a testament to how deep the US was in this in 2004. Think Peter Vanderkaay, Klete Keller, Erik Vendt, Larsen Jensen, and Fran Crippen. Being compared to those studs makes this event’s depth look worse than it is in reality.

It is interesting to look at event improvement over time. Of course, the past decade has a huge asterisk due to the suit era in 2008 and 2009, but what better way to analyze the current status of US men’s swimming than compare it to the past?

In this imperfect system, sometimes the stature of the swimmers in 2004 was so impressive that it negatively affected the improvement rate in 2014. So based on that, what events do you think are going to improve the most in the next ten years at both the superstar level and from a depth perspective?

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Bill Bell

8 years ago

To say the 200 fly has been stagnant since London is an understatement.

Nobody has broken 1:54.0 in three years since Le Clos won last Olympics iwith his Commonwealth Record 1:52.96. Phelps was next in 1:53.01 and Japan’s Takeshi Matsuda was third [1:53.21].

Phelps OWNS this race.

He has Top 3 performances all-time, 5 of the Top 10 and 13 of Top 25. He’s ONLY man sub-1:52.0 and has three sub other sub 1:53.0 clockings. Nobody else has more than one and of the three men other than Phelps to go sub 1:53.0 two (Hungary’s Laszlo Cseh, Matsuda) both did it @ Beijing in shiny suits. Le Clos did his time @ London but he was competing in the “Greatest Show on Earth.”

Ten U.S . men have gone 1:55.99 or faster all-time but only five are currently active and as noted above Tom Shields is fastest among those swimmers. (Tyler Clary is faster than Shields but his focus is the 200 back.) There are 423 performances all-time sub-1:56.0 and while I didn’t count Phelps’ total I’d put money he has most of anyone!

The only currently active flyers who’ve been sub-1:54.0 NOT named Phelps/Le Clos are Poland’s Pawwel Korzeniowski and Brazil’s Kaio Almeida, both of whom are getting a bit long in the tooth. Matsuda’s a great swimmer but not in the same class as the Big 2.

So…come back, Mikey, a nation turns its lonely eyes to thee!

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Patrick Murphy

8 years ago

Reply to Bill Bell

Bill,
Thanks for the comment and great information! It’s true. I really think Phelps can put himself in position this summer to be the favorite in the 2 fly, or at least the co-favorite with Le Clos