A Year Out: 5 Stacked Men’s Races at the 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials

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Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

It is officially June 2020, and this month was supposed to be the final march to the U.S. Olympic Trials in Omaha, Nebraska. With COVID-19 pushing the Olympics and all the qualifying meets back to 2021, the US Trials will take place June 13 – 20, 2021. Now all the athletes will have an extra year to prepare themselves to chase their dreams and vie for spots on the plane to Tokyo.

As we enter a month without an Olympic Trials, we wanted to take a look at some of the most anticipated men’s races had we still had a Trials coming up. Of course a lot can change in 12 months, and we will have a clearer picture of what each event will look like once swimmers get back into normal training environments and are able to perform in meets again. But for now in a time without sports, we wanted to paint a picture of which men’s events we will be most looking forward to come Olympic Trials.

The Women’s Races

100 Free

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Nathan Adrian at the US Olympic Trials in 2016. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

There really does not seem to be a deeper event on the men’s side than the 100 freestyle. In 2019 alone, six Americans ranked in the top 10 in the world in this event, led by two-time reigning world champion Caeleb Dressel. Just getting out of the heats and the semifinals at the U.S. Olympic Trials will be a challenge, as a lot more than just the six in the top 10 in the world will have a legitimate chance to make the team for the 4×100 free relay.

Ryan Held won a gold medal in Rio by swimming the third leg on the 4×100 free relay, but has not been on a Worlds or Pan Pacs team since. He did however swim the third fastest time in the world in 2019 in winning the national title in Dressel’s absence. He won ahead of Maxime Rooney, who was ranked fifth in the world as both guys swam quicker than the bronze medal winner at the World Championships.

Blake Pieroni was fourth in that final in Gwangju, just six hundredths away from the podium. It was a big moment for Pieroni in his first individual final at Worlds, but he will be challenged by the rise of Rooney, Held and fellow Indiana teammate Zach Apple, who came up big on a number of relays for the Americans last summer. Both Pieroni and Apple have been big relay contributors the last few years, and will definitely be in the mix in the 100 and 200 free.

Not to be forgotten is Nathan Adrian. The 31-year-old spent the majority of 2019 fighting testicular cancer, and still came back to anchor the U.S. to gold in the 4×100 free relay at World Championships. What can a fully healthy Adrian do with an extra year of preparation for Olympic Trials? As this event has gotten deeper and deeper, Adrian always seems to pull out a top two finish at nationals, and it will be silly if anyone counts him out come Omaha next year.

100 Back

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Matt Grevers stretches at the US Olympic Trials in 2016. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

35-year-old Matt Grevers missed the 2016 Olympic team by just a few tenths four years ago, but has since responded by making the last three major U.S. teams in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Grevers’ comeback story would certainly make for an exciting plot come Omaha, and he definitely has a chance to make the team. But he will have his hands full, not only with reigning Olympic champ and world record holder Ryan Murphy, but with rising Texas A&M star Shaine Casas.

Murphy had the top time in the world in the early days of 2020, while Grevers sat fourth. Those two have been the American representatives the last three years, but Casas had a big 2019, putting himself fifth in the world rankings at U.S. Nationals. Casas was unable to perform at NCAAs this year in his sophomore year to really show how much of a threat he could be, but there is no denying this guy’s talent. Casas has a chance to make some serious noise in Omaha next summer, but the only problem is only two can go to Tokyo. It seems to be the theme at every U.S. Olympic Trials and will be no different next year. The U.S. has perhaps three guys that could contend for a medal in Tokyo, but only two of them will get to go.

100 Fly

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Jack Conger. Photo Courtesy: Connor Trimble

Four Americans were ranked in the top 10 in the world this year, led by world record holder Caeleb Dressel (50.92). The second spot the last two years went to Jack Conger, who has a chance to make his second Olympic Team in Tokyo after he swam on the 4×200 free relay in Rio. Conger missed the final at the World Championships in this event, placing 11th, and has since been ranked eighth in the world in the early days of 2020.

Behind Dressel, the second spot at the U.S. Olympic Trials is really up for grabs, and like the 100 free, it could be a war zone in the semifinals just to get through to the final. Michael Andrew has the second fastest time in the world this year (51.33) with his swim from the TYR Pro Swim Series, and has a chance in a multitude of events to make his first Olympic team. Andrew has had a lot of hype around him in his career, breaking a plethora of national age group records, and he has transitioned nicely to the senior ranks the last few years. But Andrew’s best events all fall around the back end of the meet – the 200 IM is on day six, the 100 fly is on day seven, and the 50 free is on day eight. If he chooses to do all three, it could jeopardize one race over the other, so he may have to pick and choose which ones he swims, and the 100 fly may or may not be out of the question.

Maxime Rooney was second in the world rankings in 2019 as his nationals swim was quicker than the silver medalist at the World Championships. Moving to Texas last summer proved to be huge for him and his career to put himself in the top ten in the world in two events. Also in the mix is Andrew Seliskar, who is ranked seventh in the world for 2020, Coleman Stewart, who won bronze at the World University Games in this event, and Tom Shields, who won gold at the Pan American Games and also swam in the final in Rio in finishing seventh.

Dressel has reached Phelps status in that everyone is chasing for second behind him, and it should definitely be a great race in the 100 fly final.

200 IM

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Ryan Lochte. Photo Courtesy: Connor Trimble

The 200 IM is another one of those events at the U.S. Olympic Trials that seems to be, at the moment, a battle for second. Worlds bronze medalist Chase Kalisz was the front runner in the American rankings and has been the top IM’er since Michael Phelps retired. The battle behind him is certainly interesting. Abrahm DeVine has been the second representative the last three years in the 200 IM, but will have some major competition next year. He finished eighth at Worlds last year and is still among the top American swimmers in the event.

Michael Andrew had the top time in the US this year, but like mentioned earlier might have to make a few changes to his event lineup if he does not believe he should swim as many events. Andrew is the only swimmer to make a Worlds final in all four 50s in the same year so he does not have a weakness in terms of speed, it’s just that last 50 free always seems to be his kryptonite in this event, but as of late that has not been an issue for him. If Andrew is truly serious about the 200 IM, then he could be a threat.

Andrew Seliskar is another swimmer capable of making the U.S. Olympic team in the 200 IM, as he was ranked fifth in the world this year. The 2019 CSCAA swimmer of the year is versatile across a number of events, and many seemed to have forgotten his 200 IM long course speed. He is second all-time in the 200 IM SCY, it’s just a matter of translating that to long course, which Seliskar has done in the 200 free quite nicely the last couple years.

Carson Foster has also steadily risen up the ranks after having a great age group career. He will be a freshman at the University of Texas this fall and has been a popular upset pick by many to get the second IM spot for Tokyo in either the 200 or 400 behind Kalisz. He was seventh in the world rankings this year, and third in the U.S. last year with a 1:57.59. With an extra year to prepare, Foster may be at an advantage.

Then there is Ryan Lochte, who has represented the U.S. at the last four Olympics in this event. An Olympics without Mr. Lochte has not happened in 20 years, so it would be odd to picture an Olympic team without him. He was ranked 18th in the world this year, and he has always been known to step up fully rested at the end of the season. After all, Lochte is still the world record holder and has appeared in four Olympic Games, so he knows how to step up under pressure.

200 Breast

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Nic Fink at the US Olympic Trials in 2016. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

The 200 breaststroke has been one of the biggest tossups at U.S. Trials in the last few years. Josh Prenot was the top ranked American in this event in 2016 and 2018. In 2017, it was Kevin Cordes and in 2019 it was Andrew Wilson. And in early 2020, it was Nic Fink.

It has been hard to stay at the top in this event and in return, this has been one of the most unpredictable events and should stay that way ahead of U.S. Olympic Trials.

Fink was the top ranked American 200 breaststroker thus far this year, putting himself fifth in the world ahead of Will Licon in seventh. Both guys swam at the Pan American Games last summer, with Licon earning the gold and Fink with the silver, as both of their times would have put them in the World Championships final. Wilson swam for the U.S. in Gwangju, placing sixth in the final.

Fink has had a lot of momentum, winning the 50 & 200 breast at the ISL Grand Final in Las Vegas in December. Even though that was in short course meters, Fink had been swimming lights out and looked ready to peak at the Olympic Trials in June. An extra year shouldn’t derail him as the 26-year-old has aged like fine wine, getting better with age.

Licon has also been swimming well as of late. The three-time NCAA champ in this event missed making the Olympic team in 2016 by just a couple tenths, in a time that put him ninth in the world that year. Since, he has always seemed to be on the outside looking in but in 2019 he swam his best 200 breast to date, and he could carry that momentum into a spot in Tokyo.

It will be a tight race next summer, with added pressure from Olympic silver medalist Prenot, national champ Reece Whitley, and World University Games bronze medalist Daniel Roy. It is going to be a dog fight across four lengths of the pool next summer, and will definitely be a can’t-miss race at the U.S. Olympic Trials.

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