A Year Out: 5 of the Most-Anticipated Women’s Races at 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials

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Olivia Smoliga and Kathleen Baker celebrate at the 2016 US Olympic Trials. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

It is officially June 2020, and this month was supposed to be the final march to the U.S. Olympic Trials in Omaha, Nebraska. With COVID-19 pushing the Olympics and all the qualifying meets back to 2021, the U.S. Trials will take place June 13 – 20, 2021. Now all the athletes will have an extra year to prepare themselves to chase their dreams and vie for spots on the plane to Tokyo.

As we enter a month without an Olympic Trials, we wanted to take a look at some of the most anticipated women’s races had we still had a Trials coming up. Of course a lot can change in 12 months, and we will have a clearer picture of what each event will look like once swimmers get back into normal training environments and are able to perform in meets again. But for now in a time without sports, we wanted to paint a picture of which women’s events we will be most looking forward to come Olympic Trials.

100 Back

Kathleen Baker. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

In the early days of 2020, half of the top ten in the world rankings were American – including the top four spots. That deep dominance would certainly leave some big names off the team in June. World record holder Regan Smith had the top time in the world this year (58.18) while former world record holder Kathleen Baker (58.56) was second. Phoebe Bacon (58.86) and Olivia Smoliga (59.25) were within striking distance of those top two swimmers, and Ali DeLoof (1:00.10) was also ranked in the top ten.

Smith had a huge 2019, breaking world records in both the 100 and 200 back, while Smoliga won her first individual medal with a bronze in the 100 at Worlds. Baker was also in that final in Gwangju but had some injuries last year that put her off her best. She quickly put her name back in the mix in March when she swam a 58.5 at the TYR Pro Swim Series, proving she has a chance to upgrade her silver from Rio in 2016 into a gold.

Bacon is a huge dark horse; she was the gold medalist at the Pan American Games last summer and actually touched ahead of Regan Smith at the US Open in December, scoring an all-time best of 58.63. Two months later in January, Bacon swam a 58.8 at the Pro Swim Series in Knoxville to prove that swim was not a fluke. As is the theme in a lot of these events, the 100 back will require no room for error as this could be the most competitive race at the US Trials.

200 Breast

Lilly King. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Although the United States did not have a finalist in the 200 breaststroke at the World Championships, this event is one of the can’t-miss races at next year’s Olympic Trials. In 2019, four Americans were ranked in the top ten in the world in this event, and this year the Americans have the top three spots led by breakout star Annie Lazor.

Lazor won the gold medal at the Pan American Games last summer in a 1-2 finish with Bethany Galat, who finished second in this event at the 2017 and 2018 U.S. Nationals, and was within a couple tenths of making the Olympic team in 2016 with a third place finish. She was ranked sixth in the world last year and seventh this year.

Lilly King is among the favorites to win this event in Tokyo due to her tenacity and competitiveness, making her a lot of people’s penciled in picks for this event at Trials. King was disqualified in the 200 breast heats at Worlds, so she was unable to race against Yulia Efimova in the final, in which the Russian won handily. King was ranked second in the world in the early days of 2020, while Emily Escobedo was ranked third.

Although Lazor and King are over a second quicker than Escobedo, if either of those two Indiana based swimmers slip up, that could leave the door open for someone like Escobedo or Galat to slip in to second. There have been some wild races at the Olympic Trials – that’s what that meet is for, and this race definitely has the recipe for an exciting finish.

200 IM

Madisyn Cox. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Americans had the top three spots in the world rankings in the early days of 2020 in the 200 IM, led by Kathleen Baker (2:08.75), who dropped this event from her program at the 2019 Worlds. Baker was on a roll this year and if she does decide to do this event, then she should be considered a favorite. The only issue for her is the fact that the 200 IM semifinal is on the same night as the 100 back final. Both events are equally stacked, but Baker has serious chances in both.

Behind Baker in the world rankings is Melanie Margalis, who has been a mainstay on the U.S. team in the 200 IM, finishing fourth at Worlds. Margalis made the team in Rio in this event, and like Baker, has a conflict of events with the 200 free final falling on the same night as the 200 IM.

Third in the world rankings is Madisyn Cox, who has had a rocky road the last few years. In 2018, she was hit with a doping suspension that left her out of contention for the World Championships and Pan American Games. Her suspension was eventually overturned and she was free to return to competition. 2020 was originally going to be the end of her career as she was set to start medical school in the fall after the Games whether she made it or not. With the Games pushed back, that caused some complications with her post-swimming plans, but for now she remains a favorite to make the Olympic team in the 200 IM and would be a feel-good comeback story.

Also not to be counted out is Ella Eastin, who won two NCAA titles in this event in her time at Stanford. Eastin was just outside of the final at the World Championships in finishing ninth. She is another popular redemption story – she finished second in the 400 IM at the 2017 U.S. Nationals, earning a spot on the Worlds team for the first time, but was disqualified. A year later, she contracted mononucleosis just before U.S. Nationals. She ultimately made the Pan Pacs team and the World Championships, but Eastin has been another popular pick over how many times she has been seemingly so close to breaking out.

Current high school senior Alex Walsh was ranked seventh in the world this year and has been steadily rising up the ranks. With an extra year to prepare for Omaha, she certainly will play a factor in this event at the Olympic Trials.

100 Fly

Katie McLaughlin. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Kelsi Dahlia has been the top 100 butterflyer in the United States since breaking out at the 2015 NCAAs by becoming the first woman to break 50 seconds in short course yards. Dahlia has since won the 2016 U.S. Trials, 2017 & 2018 U.S. Nationals, and has been the butterflyer on the medley relays the last three years. She was ranked second in the world this year and again will be tough to beat come Olympic Trials next summer. The battle behind her is what will be intriguing.

Katie McLaughlin swam for the United States in the 100 butterfly at the 2019 Worlds, finishing ninth. She was ranked just 27th in 2020 early on, but was still considered a favorite for that second spot based on what she did at Worlds. Behind Dahlia and McLaughlin, there is a plethora of teenagers waiting to make their mark.

Teenagers Claire Curzan and Torri Huske have been rising stars the last few years, and with an extra year of prep it could be beneficial for them.

The 100 butterfly field also has a lot of veterans that have yet to prove themselves and make their first Olympic team. Amanda Kendall will be 30 by the time Trials will roll around, and has been swimming the best times of her career in the last few years. Kendyl Stewart also has a chance, and so does Natalie Hinds, who initially retired in 2016 but came back and has been swimming lifetime bests as a postgrad at the University of Georgia.

Tennessee’s Erika Brown has been known as a strong short course swimmer but has only just recently begun putting out long course times on par with her yards times. She is someone that definitely has a chance to make an impact in multiple events.

1500 Free

Erica Sullivan. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

The 1500 free will certainly be interesting when it makes its debut at the Olympic Trials and later on at the Olympic Games. Katie Ledecky is clearly the front runner here and should win handily – it is the race for second that is intriguing. 19-year-old Erica Sullivan was second in the world rankings to start the year as she has been quietly lighting up the pool in distance free. In December, she was a 15:23 in the 1650 yards freestyle, putting her second all-time behind Ledecky. Sullivan had a lot of momentum moving forward to Olympic Trials, and if she can continue that another year then she should not be counted out in the 1500 final.

Sullivan has already represented the United States at the World Championships, when she finished fifth in the 25K this past summer. Her fellow open water teammate Ashley Twichell also swam open water at the Worlds, securing her spot on the 2021 Olympic Team in the 10K. As Twichell moves forward to Olympic Trials, the pressure will be less for her knowing she will still be going to Tokyo no matter how she does in the 1500. She finished fourth in the 1500 at Worlds last summer in a 15:54 – a lifetime best for her after a long week of open water racing the week prior.

The 1500 is a major game of tactics, and who can best manage endurance and speed will come out on top. Leah Smith, Ally McHugh and Haley Anderson are also strong contenders for the second 1500 spot behind Ledecky, and it will definitely be an interesting race to watch unfold in Omaha.

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