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Olympic Swimming Betting: Top Odds for Gold Medalists in Tokyo
If you’re interested in using your swimming expertise to try to make some money through sports betting during the Olympic swimming competition, the betting website Pinnacle has provided odds for each individual race for the Olympics. This is not about simply guessing the winners, since each swimmer has certain odds attached to their name for a particular event. For instance, the men’s 100 breaststroke lists Adam Peaty at 1.037, meaning that every dollar bet on Peaty would result in a payout of $1.04. However, correctly selecting a gold medalist with odds around 4 or 5 would lead to a payout many times larger.
So in order to help you be smart with where you spend your money, we are going to make some suggestions for great value bets based on the listed odds. In certain cases, that might even mean betting against the certain swimmer you think will win Olympic gold with hopes of a higher payout. Here at Swimming World, you already know the favorites and contenders in the women’s events, in the men’s events and on the relays, so use that knowledge to decide which would be the smartest bets for the upcoming eight days of Olympic swimming in Tokyo. So we will give you some smart bets on favorites, good value bets on contenders to win Olympic gold and some bold longshot picks.
Bets on Favorites
Men’s 200 Individual Medley: Michael Andrew may not win Olympic gold in the 200 IM, but he’s certainly the favorite on paper based on his times from this year. He needs to clean up his freestyle leg (29.9 and 30.0 won’t cut it). No one will argue with that. But odds of 2.050 on the consensus gold-medal pick? Go right ahead.
Women’s 200 Individual Medley: Kaylee McKeown is probably the gold-medal favorite in the 200 IM after she swam a 2:08.19 at Australia’s Olympic Trials, more than a half-second ahead of anyone else in the Tokyo field and well ahead of Katinka Hosszu’s top 2021 time of 2:10.12. McKeown is listed at 2.260, compared to Hosszu at 1.854. Take a chance with McKeown on this one.
Men’s 800 Freestyle Relay: In general, staying away from relays is a good bet right now (a lot can change at the Olympics in these events), but Great Britain is the clear favorite for gold in the 800 free relay while holding the second-highest odds at 3.280. If you can get a gold-medal favorite at that number, take it.
Value Bets on Contenders
Chase Kalisz would be a good bet for Olympic gold in the men’s 400 IM — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Men’s 400 Individual Medley: Daiya Seto is the favorite for Olympic gold, but he has not broken 4:09 this year and only ranks slightly ahead of Chase Kalisz in the world rankings. Kalisz is listed at 3.350, so give this one a shot. During his career, Kalisz has come through in big moments, and he could reward that faith with a nice payout.
Women’s 100 Butterfly: While Torri Huske, Zhang Yufei and Emma McKeon have all swum 55s this year in the 100 fly, 2019 world champion Maggie MacNeil has flown under the radar. After posting the fastest 100-yard fly ever in March, she swam a 56.19 at Canada’s Olympic Trials. She has the third-best odds here at 4.520, an amazing value, and if you like McKeon in this race, take those odds at 7.330.
Women’s 100 Backstroke: McKeown broke the world record in June with her 57.45, and she is the favorite, but former world-record holder Regan Smith and two-time world champion Kylie Masse have both been 57s this year and could certainly win this race. Would that really be a shocker? Smith (3.110) and Masse (3.670) each have good odds. If you’re looking for a big longshot, check out Kathleen Dawson at 12.450.
Men’s 100 Backstroke: You can get good odds here for any of the four favorites: Evgeny Rylov (2.660), Kliment Kolesnikov (2.860), Xu Jiayu (3.710) and Ryan Murphy (4.160). After Murphy cruised through Olympic Trials with seemingly more in the tank than his 52.22 100 back performance, he is an excellent value pick.
Boglarka Kapas is the reigning world champion in the women’s 200 fly — Photo Courtesy: Patrick B. Kraemer
Women’s 200 Butterfly: Hali Flickinger posted the world’s fastest time in 2019, and now she’s one of two swimmers who have swum under 2:06 this year. With odds of 3.380, that’s worth a few bucks. Or if you prefer, reigning world champion Boglarka Kapas has the fourth-best odds at 7.980.
Women’s 200 Breaststroke: This is another event considered wide open, and two really strong American contenders have great odds. Annie Lazor is at 5.730, and Lilly King gets 8.680 odds. Without any obvious favorites here (and two-time world champion Yuliya Efimova out of the event), take the money on either of them.
A Longshot?
Men’s 200 Freestyle: In a wide-open field, why not take a gamble on the swimmer with the fourth-highest odds if that swimmer is racing in his home country? Katsuhiro Matsumoto is ranked third in the world at 1:44.65, and he has the fourth-highest odds (behind Danas Rapsys, Duncan Scott and Tom Dean). At 5.880, that’s worth the risk.
Races to Avoid
Don’t waste your money betting on the heavy favorites in the Olympic swimming competition. The odds on Peaty in the 100 breast, Kristof Milak in the 200 fly and Caeleb Dressel in the 50 free and 100 fly are all 1.5 or lower. Ditto King in the women’s 100 breast. Dressel in the 100 free is at 1.833 since he will have challengers, and that is slightly more acceptable to take. And the men’s 200 breast will feature three favorites (Russia’s Anton Chupkov, Australia’s Zac Stubblety-Cook and Japan’s Shoma Sato), and it’s way too close to lean one way or the other with money. The women’s sprint freestyles are also very unpredictable events for Tokyo. Australians Emma McKeon and Cate Campbell have the best odds in both events, but it’s tough to feel good enough about any contender to spend money here.
Speaking of the men’s 200 breast, Japan’s Ippei Watanabe has the fourth-best odds at 7.490. Definitely don’t take that since Watanabe did not qualify to swim the event at the Olympics. Efimova is also listed in the women’s 200 breast (3.240), and she won’t be in that event in Tokyo. China’s Ye Shiwen is listed in both IM events, and she won’t be in Tokyo at all.
Check out all of the betting lines from Pinnacle: women’s and men’s.
