A Look at How the Relays Are Shaping Up for the Olympics (Time Comparisons)

mitch larkin, matt wilson, emma mckeon, cate campbell, 2019 fina world championships, olympics

Australia will be a significant factor in most relays at the Olympics -- Photo Courtesy: Becca Wyant

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A Look at How the Relays Are Shaping Up for the Olympics (Time Comparisons)

With just weeks remaining until the Tokyo Olympics swimming competition begins on July 24, it’s time to look at how the relay events stand for these Games. After the past six Olympics featured six total relays (women’s and men’s 400 free, 800 free and 400 medley relays), the 2021 edition will add the mixed 400 medley relay, consisting of two female and male swimmers, in whatever order a particular country decides to swim.

At the 2016 Olympics in Rio, the Americans won five of the six relays on the program, all except the women’s 400 free relay, where Australia took gold. This time, almost all the relays are shaping up to be extremely competitive battles, with only Australia looking significantly superior to its competition in the women’s freestyle relays.

Below, you will see composites of the top four flat-start times from each country for each relay event to see how the countries are stacking up in each event a few weeks out from Tokyo. Plenty will change at the Olympics as some swimmers are quicker and others slower, but this is how everything looks on paper right now. Only times swum during the calendar year 2021 will be considered for this exercise.

Women’s 400 Free Relay

At Australia’s Olympic Trials last month, four swimmers went under 53 seconds in the 100 free. All the other significant medal contenders have combined for one sub-53-second performance. Australians Emma McKeon, Cate Campbell and Madison Wilson hold the top three times in the world right now in this event, and while Meg Harris finished fourth at Australia’s Trials, former world champion Bronte Campbell could also factor in here.

Meanwhile, the United States earned silver behind Australia at the last Olympics and last World Championships, but the 100 free at its Olympic Trials lacked top-end speed (although there was no shortage of depth). We’ll see if there can be any significant improvements or if a swimmer like Simone Manuel or Torri Huske or even Katie Ledecky might be added to provide a boost. If not, the Americans could face a major challenge for even silver.

Australia: Emma McKeon 52.19 + Cate Campbell 52.59 + Madison Wilson 52.76 + Meg Harris 52.92 = 3:30.46
United States: Abbey Weitzeil 53.52 + Olivia Smoliga 53.55 + Natalie Hinds 53.55 + Erika Brown 53.59 = 3:34.39
Great Britain: Freya Anderson 53.40 + Anna Hopkin 53.43 + Lucy Hope 53.89 + Abbey Wood 53.90 = 3:34.62
Netherlands: Femke Heemskerk 53.05 + Ranomi Kromowidjojo 53.13 + Marrit Steenbergen 54.13 + Kim Busch 54.59 = 3:34.90
Canada: Penny Oleksiak 52.89 + Kayla Sanchez 53.57 + Maggie MacNeil 54.02 + Rebecca Smith 54.44 = 3:34.92

Men’s 400 Free Relay

Caeleb Dressel, Zach Apple, Blake Pieroni and Brooks Curry qualified to represent the U.S. in the men’s 400 free relay in Tokyo — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

The men’s 400 free relay is always dramatic at the Olympics, and expect 2021 to be no different. The Americans reclaimed the gold medal in 2016 after France won in stunning fashion in 2012, and the U.S. is undefeated since then with Caeleb Dressel leading the way. However, Russia has a really strong foursome, with three swimmers already swimming under 48 earlier this year (led by world No. 1 Kliment Kolesnikov). Russia finished less than a second behind the Americans at the 2019 World Championships, and with Russia’s composite 2021 time ranking about a half-second ahead of the Americans, this could shape up as another classic.

Australia, Great Britain, Italy and Brazil all have groups that could challenge for the bronze medal, while France has completely fallen off the map in this event and is a long shot to even make the final.

Russia: Kliment Kolesnikov 47.31 + Andrei Minakov 47.74 + Vladislav Grinev 47.85 + Vladimir Morozov 48.00 = 3:10.90
United States: Caeleb Dressel 47.39 + Zach Apple 47.72 + Blake Pieroni 48.14 + Brooks Curry 48.19 = 3:11.44
Australia: Kyle Chalmers 47.59 + Matthew Temple 48.32 + Cameron McEvoy 48.49 + Zac Incerti 48.51 = 3:12.91
Great Britain: Duncan Scott 47.87 + Matthew Richards 48.23 + Tom Dean 48.30 + Jacob Whittle 48.55 = 3:12.95
Italy: Alessandro Miressi 47.45 + Thomas Ceccon 48.50 + Lorenzo Zazzeri 48.59 + Manuel Frigo 48.83 = 3:13.37
Brazil: Andre Souza 48.15 + Pedro Spajari 48.31 + Gabriel Silva 48.49 + Bruno Correia 48.74 = 3:13.69

Men’s 800 Free Relay

Two British men, Duncan Scott and Tom Dean, currently hold the top two spots in the world rankings in the men’s 200 free, and with 2015 world champion James Guy also on the team, Great Britain will head to the Olympics favored for gold in the 800 free relay after finishing a very surprising fifth at the 2019 World Championships. But this will be extremely competitive with Russia and Australia both bringing balanced and deep squads. Russia is led by European 200 free champion Martin Malyutin, while Australia’s group includes defending 100 free Olympic champion Kyle Chalmers and 400 free Olympic favorite Elijah Winnington.

Meanwhile, the United States is at risk of missing the medal podium in an Olympic relay for the first time ever. Three men swam under 1:46 at U.S. Olympic Trials (Kieran Smith, Townley Haas and Drew Kibler), but they will need some more improvements to break into this top three, let alone win a fifth straight Olympic gold in this race.

Great Britain: Duncan Scott 1:44.47 + Tom Dean 1:44.58 + Matt Richards 1:45.77 + James Guy 1:45.95 = 7:00.77
Russia: Martin Malyutin 1:44.79 + Ivan Girev 1:45.49 + Aleksandr Dovgalyuk 1:45.56 + Aleksandr Shchegolev 1:45.82 = 7:01.66
Australia: Alexander Graham 1:45.22 + Kyle Chalmers 1:45.48 + Elijah Winnington 1:45.55 + Thomas Neill 1:45.70 = 7:01.95
United States: Kieran Smith 1:45.29 + Townley Haas 1:45.66 + Drew Kibler 1:45.92 + Andrew Seliskar 1:46.34 = 7:03.21

Women’s 800 Free Relay

At the 2019 World Championships, Australia edged the United States in the 800 free relay by just 0.37, and both teams swam under a decade-old world record. But heading into Tokyo, Australia could be dominant in this race. Ariarne Titmus finished just a tenth off the 200 free world record at the country’s Olympic Trials, and combined with Emma McKeon, Madison Wilson and Leah Neale, the four times add up to almost two seconds faster than that world record.

Meanwhile, the United States has won gold in five of the six Olympics when this relay has been contested, but in Tokyo, they will be favored for silver. Despite a relatively unimpressive collection of 200 free times at Olympic Trials, the Americans are comfortably ahead of the rest of the field, and Katie Ledecky’s excellence will be critical here. Behind the Americans, Taylor Ruck is not currently among Canada’s top four swimmers, but she has been a 1:54 in the past, so her returning to close to that form would be an enormous boost. And China usually puts together a really strong foursome in this relay, and distance star Wang Jianjiahe could contribute after splitting 1:56.52 in 2019.

Australia: Ariarne Titmus 1:53.09 + Emma McKeon 1:54.74 + Madison Wilson 1:55.68 + Leah Neale 1:56.08 = 7:39.59
United States: Katie Ledecky 1:54.40 + Paige Madden 1:56.44 + Allison Schmitt 1:56.79 + Katie McLaughlin 1:57.16 = 7:44.79
China: Yang Junxuan 1:54.57 + Li Bingjie 1:56.64 + Tang Muhan 1:57.83 + Dong Jie 1:58.53 = 7:47.57
Canada: Summer McIntosh 1:56.19 + Penny Oleksiak 1:57.07 + Rebecca Smith 1:57.43 + Katerine Savard 1:57.79 = 7:48.48
Germany: Isabel Gose 1:56.93 + Annika Bruhn 1:57.17 + Leonie Kullman 1:57.64 + Marie Pietruschka 1:58.46 = 7:50.20

Mixed 400 Medley Relay

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Swimmers from Australia and the United States congratulate each other after Australia touched out the Americans in the mixed 400 medley relay at the 2019 FINA World Championships — Photo Courtesy: Becca Wyant

The mixed medley relay, making its debut at an Olympics, will be a test in strategy and balance between male and female swimmers. Some countries can excel in this event without having a standout women’s or men’s medley relay, just because the pieces fit together. Some of these lineups will likely change significantly, particularly for the United States. Three different American lineups (with different combinations of male and female swimmers) created composites in the 3:39-range, but the team of Regan Smith (back), Michael Andrew (breast), Torri Huske (fly) and Caeleb Dressel (free) came out to the fastest time right now, but that could change based on Olympic performances. Ryan Murphy or Lilly King, in particular, could end up factoring in here.

The Americans sit seven tenths ahead of Great Britain and Australia in the composites, with Britain relying on huge legs from backstroker Kathleen Dawson and breaststroker Adam Peaty, while Australia’s women (Kaylee McKeown on back and Emma McKeon on fly or free) will provide a huge advantage on those legs. Interestingly, because of McKeon’s brilliance, it’s unlikely Australia would use both butterflyer Matthew Temple and freestyler Kyle Chalmers. And while China looks a little behind in the current composite times, that foursome of Xu Jiayu, Yan Zibei, Zhang Yufei and Yang Junxuan set the world record in this event in October 2020 with a 3:38.41.

Finally, check out the Netherlands, which does not excel in either single-gender medley relay. Here, the Dutch can use excellent female backstroker Kira Toussaint, emerging male breaststroker Arno Kamminga and veteran Femke Heemskerk on the end and make a real run at a medal while covering up weaknesses that would really hurt in a single-gender event.

United States: Regan Smith 57.92 + Michael Andrew 58.14 + Torri Huske 55.66 + Caeleb Dressel 47.39 = 3:39.11
Great Britain: Kathleen Dawson 58.08 + Adam Peaty 57.39 + James Guy 50.96 + Freya Anderson 53.40 = 3:39.83
Australia: Kaylee McKeown 57.45 + Zac Stubblety-Cook 59.69 + Matthew Temple 50.45 + Emma McKeon 52.29 = 3:39.88
China: Xu Jiayu 52.88 + Yan Zibei 59.21 + Zhang Yufei 55.73 + Yang Junxuan 53.21 = 3:41.03
Netherlands: Kira Toussaint 58.65 + Arno Kamminga 57.90 + Nyls Korstanje 51.65 + Femke Heemskerk 53.03 = 3:41.23
Canada: Kylie Masse 57.70 + Gabe Mastromatteo 1:00.11 + Joshua Liendo 51.40 + Penny Oleksiak 52.89 = 3:42.10
Russia: Evgeny Rylov 52.12 + Evgeniia Chikunova 1:06.06 + Arina Surkova 57.54 + Kliment Kolesnikov 47.31 = 3:43.03

Women’s 400 Medley Relay

For the women’s medley relay, expect a battle between the United States and Australia. The two countries should be reasonably close on backstroke (with Regan Smith and Kaylee McKeown) and on butterfly (Torri Huske and Emma McKeon), but the Americans have a huge advantage with Lilly King’s breaststroke split while Australia gets the same with Cate Campbell on the freestyle. The composite shows just a 14-hundredth difference right now, but the Americans probably have a little more room to improve on freestyle than Australia does on breaststroke, giving them the advantage.

Beyond those top two countries, Canada looks like the strongest contender for bronze, with Kylie Masse, Maggie MacNeil and Penny Oleksiak each capable of contributing elite-level legs. Breaststroke is the weak point for many countries, and of the six contenders listed here, only Sweden’s Sophie Hansson is within a second of King on that leg.

United States: Regan Smith 57.92 + Lilly King 1:04.72 + Torri Huske 55.66 + Abbey Weitzeil 53.52 = 3:51.82
Australia: Kaylee McKeown 57.45 + Chelsea Hodges 1:05.99 + Emma McKeon 55.93 + Cate Campbell 52.59 = 3:51.96
Canada: Kylie Masse 57.70 + Kelsey Wog 1:06.77 + Maggie MacNeil 56.19 + Penny Oleksiak 52.89 = 3:53.55
China: Chen Jie 59.75 + Yu Jingyao 1:06.77 + Zhang Yufei 55.73 + Yang Junxuan 53.21 = 3:55.46
Great Britain: Kathleen Dawson 58.08 + Molly Renshaw 1:06.21 + Harriet Jones 57.79 + Freya Anderson 53.40 = 3:55.48
Sweden: Michelle Coleman 1:00.00 + Sophie Hansson 1:05.69 + Louise Hansson 56.73 + Sarah Sjostrom 53.47 = 3:55.89

Men’s 400 Medley Relay

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Duncan Scott and Adam Peaty celebrate after Great Britain won gold in stunning fashion in the men’s 400 medley relay at the 2019 FINA World Championships — Photo Courtesy: Becca Wyant

At the 2019 World Championships, Great Britain’s Duncan Scott pulled off a stunning comeback on the freestyle leg to shock the Americans and steal away the gold medal. Scott’s anchor split of 46.14 was the second-fastest ever. But the composite numbers this year show the American men looking really good for the medley relay, an event they have won at every Olympics except for the boycotted 1980 Games. Ryan Murphy and Caeleb Dressel are world record-holders in the 100 back and 100 fly, respectively, while Michael Andrew (breast) and Zach Apple (free) should provide really solid legs.

But Great Britain has Adam Peaty on breast, and he has been as fast as 56.88 in his career. If Andrew can split within a second or a little more of Peaty, then the Americans will be in a solid position, but if Peaty dominates Andrew, then James Guy on fly and Scott on free could again steal the gold. The most balanced team behind those top two countries is Russia, particularly with Evgeny Rylov and Kliment Kolesnikov having awesome years, and Australia is elite on the back half. Japan, meanwhile, will have by far its best chance at a relay medal in its home Games in the men’s medley relay.

United States: Ryan Murphy 52.22 + Michael Andrew 58.14 + Caeleb Dressel 49.76 + Zach Apple 47.72 = 3:27.84
Great Britain: Luke Greenbank 53.34 + Adam Peaty 57.39 + James Guy 50.96 + Duncan Scott 47.87 = 3:29.56
Russia: Evgeny Rylov 52.12 + Kirill Prigoda 59.11 + Andrei Minakov 51.17 + Kliment Kolesnikov 47.31 = 3:29.71
Australia: Mitch Larkin 53.04 + Zac Stubblety-Cook 59.69 + Matthew Temple 50.45 + Kyle Chalmers 47.59 = 3:30.77
Japan: Ryosuke Irie 53.00 + Shoma Sato 59.18 + Takeshi Kawamoto 51.00 + Katsumi Nakamura 48.23 = 3:31.41

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