Medley Relay Mania: Who are the Favorites After Campbell’s World Record?

Photo Courtesy: Steve Christo/Swimming Australia

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By David Rieder

No world record has been set at the Olympic Trials this week, but everyone in Omaha awoke this morning to the news of one Down Under. Cate Campbell provided the fireworks with a 52.06 in the 100 free at Swimming Australia’s Grand Prix meet in Brisbane, clipping the 52.07 that Britta Steffen set at the 2009 World Championships in Rome.

That, of course, came just hours after Abbey Weitzeil won the same event at U.S. Trials in 53.28. Even before the world record, Weitzeil acknowledged after she would have to swim much faster to be in medal contention in Rio, and the U.S. will need improvements all across the board if they want to win a medal in the 400 free relay—let alone gold, with Australia having three women who have gone under 53 this year.

But those races aside, the American women need Weitzeil or Simone Manuel to drop some time for a potential anchor leg on the 400 medley relay. The Americans were a disappointing fourth in that event at the World Championships last summer, but if Manuel does not get the spot they will roll out a totally new quartet this time around.

And the pieces look strong: Olivia Smoliga was extremely impressive in the 100 back this week at Trials, as was Lilly King in the 100 breast and Kelsi Worrell in the 100 fly. Australia will almost surely trail the Americans at 300 meters, even with Emily Seebohm on the leadoff leg.

Then, Campbell will go into the water. Right now she has an advantage of 1.22 seconds on Weitzeil. However big of a lead that either Worrell or Dana Vollmer gets going into the anchor leg, Campbell will be coming on hard.

But based on a composite of the top times recorded this year, the margin between the two countries is razor-thin, even with the huge freestyle deficit. Check out these numbers.

USA

Olivia Smoliga: 59.02
Lilly King: 1:05.20
Kelsi Worrell: 56.48
Abbey Weitzeil: 53.28
Total: 3:53.98

Australia

Emily Seebohm: 58.73
Georgia Bohl: 1:06.12
Alicia Coutts: 56.89
Cate Campbell: 52.06
Total: 3:53.80

Both of these swims would easily eclipse the 3:54.41 that China swam to win the world title last year, especially when relay starts (~0.3-0.6 each) are accounted for. Obviously some of these athletes will drop time, and others will not be at their best in Rio, but this relay should be a close finish—even if it’s not tight all the way through.

How about on the men’s side? This one will be incomplete until this evening’s Olympic Trials final of the men’s 100 fly, where Michael Phelps certainly has 50-point potential, although it might not happen in Omaha.

The Americans should be favored slightly to win gold ahead of—you guessed it—Australia in this one. The composite time gives the current U.S. foursome an advantage of about three-quarters of a second.

USA

David Plummer: 52.12
Kevin Cordes: 58.94
Seth Stubblefield: 51.26
Nathan Adrian: 47.72
Total: 3:30.04

Australia

Mitch Larkin: 52.48
Jake Packard: 59.64
David Morgan: 51.64
Cameron McEvoy: 47.04
Total: 3:30.80

Once again, Australia has a substantial margin on the freestyle leg, this time courtesy of Cameron McEvoy’s near-world record performance in April. But Nathan Adrian is a veteran relay presence who should be more equipped to handle the charging Aussies than Weitzeil or Manuel might be.

Cordes has provided the Americans with an advantage on the breaststroke leg, but the backstroke should be ultra-competitive with the reigning 100 back World Champion in Mitch Larkin going against one of the two high-flying Americans, David Plummer or Ryan Murphy in a rematch from the individual final.

It looks like swimming’s two traditional powerhouses will be battling it out for gold medals in the last events of the meet. Should it be any different?

And with the Americans favored in both 800 free relays and the Aussies currently sitting way ahead of anyone else in the women’s 400 free relay, that leaves only the men’s 400 free relay as up for grabs. The Americans and Australians will again be right there, but France has to be considered the current gold medal favorite in that event.

So on day two of eight of Olympic swimming, it will be up to Jeremy Stravius, Florent Manaudou and co. to break up what would otherwise almost certainly be an American-Australian sweep of the relays.

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