Is The Sky Falling for U.S. Swimming?; What Will It Take?

Column by John Lohn, Swimming World senior writer

GILLETTE, New Jersey, March 26. ACCORDING to various articles from around the world and some of the reader-driven commentary on this website, Frank Busch, United States Swimming's National Team Director, should take the following advice: Run around like Chicken Little and declare that the sky is falling.

At the recent Australian Olympic Trials, the male sprinters were so impressive — headlined by James Magnussen and James Roberts — some have decided the gold medals should already be doled out for the London Olympics in the 400 freestyle relay. True, Australia is the reigning world champion. And, there is no arguing the dazzling nature of the performances from Down Under, which included Magnussen going 47-low, a textile best, and Roberts affirming himself as the second-fastest man ever in textile.

Meanwhile, the Aussies boasted several other top-flight efforts, with Matt Targett clocking in at 48-low and Eamon Sullivan, formerly the world-record holder in the 100 freestyle, checking in with a mark of 48.53. Cameron McEvoy, a rising star, delivered a showing of 48.58. Based on this collection of results, Australia — it has been deemed in some circles — will run away with the glamour relay of the Olympics.

Wait, wasn't there a similar belief in Beijing? Wasn't there a consensus that France, fueled by Alain Bernard, was too much to handle, leaving the United States battling for the silver medal? And, wasn't the outcome otherwise, with Jason Lezak anchoring the American contingent to a scintillating triumph in the Water Cube?

Again, Australia is the current favorite for Olympic gold in the first freestyle relay of the competition, and it's a deserved title. After all, the Aussies went to Shanghai during the last major international meet and got the job done. Still, and especially in an Olympic year, it is too early to anoint anyone as the champion. Well, we probably can give Michael Phelps a third consecutive gold in the 200 butterfly, but he's a different athlete altogether.

When the United States holds its Trials in Omaha in June, we'll have a much better idea of where the Americans sit in comparison to their rivals. We know Phelps will be fast in London and there isn't much concern with Nathan Adrian, the best sprinter the Red, White and Blue has to offer. Who else will contribute to the 400 free relay? Ryan Lochte? Garrett Weber-Gale? Ricky Berens? Dave Walters? Others? More, will their times be fast enough to make the USA a true contender? It says here, based on history, the United States will generate the quality necessary to be in the mix.

The beauty of any Olympic year is the conversation and chatter which develops, and we already have a great deal of banter flying around. It's an exciting time for sure, but it is too early to point upward and declare the sky falling on the United States. Even Chicken Little wouldn't go that far.

**Continuing with our Olympic discussion, let's hear about our readers' preferences in terms of the best one-on-one duels we'll see in London. Here are a few options to select from, but feel free to add one that is not the list. Put your selections in order.

Michael Phelps vs. Ryan Lochte (200 IM)
Sun Yang vs. Tae-Hwan Park (400 Freestyle)
Stephanie Rice vs. Hannah Miley (400 IM)
Missy Franklin vs. Camille Muffat (200 Free)

**Over the next several weeks, we're going to start a quick feature known as What Will it Take? I'll throw out and event or two and we'll have conversation about what times we think it will take to qualify for the final of a specific Olympic event. This week, we'll start with the men's and women's 200 freestyles, sure to be headliner events in London.

For both genders, athletes will not have the luxury of easing through the semifinal round to preserve energy for the final and the rest of the meet. So, what will it take to advance to the championship heat of the men's and women's 200 freestyles?

**Initially, I was disappointed to see that Laure Manaudou was not planning to challenge for any Olympic berths in the freestyle events. There was a desire to see her rivalry with Federica Pellegrini reignited, along with a potential duel in the 200 free with Missy Franklin. However, after seeing her results from the French Trials, I'll be the first to admit being wrong about Manaudou's decision.

It's clear that Manaudou had an effective game plan and will have the opportunity to focus on the 100 and 200 backstrokes for this summer, and that focus could make her into a medal contender in the longer discipline. As for the 100 back, that event is overloaded with talent and I'm not convinced Manaudou will be quick enough to land on the podium.

Follow John Lohn on Twitter: @JohnLohn

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