How Will NCAA Champions Fare In Transition To Long Course?

Commentary by Jeff Commings

Vacation is over. The 18 individual-event winners at the recent women’s and men’s NCAA swimming championships are back in the water, ready to prove that their short course yards performances can translate into even bigger things in the long course pool. Of the 18 NCAA champions, 11 will race at this summer’s world championships.

We’re in the year before the Olympic Games, and the results on the scoreboard will be critical for everyone around the world. The times and places will determine how much more work needs to be done in the latter half of 2015 and the first half of 2016. It will dictate what focus points each athlete needs to make priorities, and how coaches will map out the season.

Making the transition from short course to long course is not easy. There is a much longer period of adjustment than there is when one moves from long course to short course. All of those who won at NCAAs proved they are exceptional short course racers. But long course is more about swimming than executing turns. Some of those we saw at the top of the podium in March should handle the transition well. Others might not.

As mentioned earlier, we’ll see 11 of the 18 NCAA champions at the world championships. One other will swim only at the World University Games, while the remaining six will stay in the United States and point to the national championships as their peak meet of the summer. Regardless of the location, we should see some impressive swims, especially from the breakout stars still looking to prove they belong with the best of the best.

Simone Manuel, Missy Franklin and Ryan Murphy are looking good to win medals in individual events at world championships. Manuel has made some big strides in the past year in long course swimming, and will be a strong adversary for Australia’s Campbell sisters (Bronte and Cate) and Sweden’s Sarah Sjostrom in the 50 and 100 freestyles.

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Franklin has a much bigger responsibility, as the newly-minted professional swimmer has three world titles to defend. Her longtime rival, Australia’s Emily Seebohm, continues to improve and could make things difficult for Franklin to win both backstrokes again. Franklin’s biggest foe in the 200 free will be her American teammate Katie Ledecky, who is rapidly improving in the 200 free and can outswim nearly everyone in the long course pool. Franklin’s 1:39.10 in the 200-yard free at NCAAs shows that she is improving as well, so we could see an excellent showdown between the two in August. Don’t count out Femke Heemskerk of the Netherlands, who became the fourth-fastest performer in history in the 200 free. Franklin’s explosive speed in her NCAA-winning 200 free might be the factor in giving her the edge over Ledecky’s endurance.

Photo Courtesy: Evan Pike – USA TODAY Sports Images

Ryan Murphy only has one event at the world championships. His singular goal is to keep the U.S. win streak in the 200 backstroke alive. Since Lenny Krayzelburg won gold in the 200 back at the 1998 worlds, the United States has not lost the event at the world championships, an eight-event streak. That dominance will be threatened by the Japanese duo of Kosuke Hagino and Ryosuke Irie, but Murphy’s improvements this year in short course could translate to a great long course meet – and he said in an interview that he prefers long course racing. Teammate Tyler Clary is on a roll in the 200 back as well, looking to back up his 2012 Olympic win and 2014 Pan Pac gold with a 2015 world championship title.

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Kevin Cordes misjudged his semifinal swim in the 200 breast at the 2013 world championships, finding himself out of the final. I expect Cordes to not make that mistake again this year, but there is a concern that his performances at this year’s NCAAs were not as fast as last year, and that could translate to subpar performances at worlds. But the lessons learned from NCAAs could serve Cordes well, and we could see him fulfilling the long course swimming expectations that he’s been carrying for about three years. He’ll also swim the 50 breast at worlds, but might not have the power to handle the likes of Cameron Van Der Burgh and the European swimmers who put a heavy focus on the event.

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Another one with medal possibilities is Joseph Schooling, who could do some damage in the butterfly events for Singapore. His international success in 2014 came in the sprint butterfly events, where he was runner-up in the 100 at the Commonwealth Games and winner of the same event at the Asian Games. I feel the 200 fly is a better event internationally for Schooling, and that’s backed up by a 10th-place finish at the 2013 worlds (he was 17th in the 100 fly in 2013). The year of training he’s had with Eddie Reese at Texas has improved his butterfly on all levels, and that could mean finals in the 100 and 200 butterfly at worlds. If he swims the 50 fly, he’ll have to contend with athletes taller and stronger than him who come mostly from the 50 freestyle and have the instantaneous speed needed in that race.

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Two of the NCAA champions will get the opportunity to swim at the World University Games in Korea and the world championships in Russia. Leah Smith, the new NCAA record holder in the 500 freestyle, will race the 200 free and 400 free at the World University Games, then travel to Russia for Team USA in the 800 free relay. Rachel Bootsma will warm up for her 50 back at world championships with a 100 back at World University Games. USA Swimming is wise to give these athletes the opportunity to swim their primary individual events at WUGs, as an opportunity to get official times and gain racing experience. It worked well for Megan Romano in 2013, as she made a name for herself at WUGs then helped the USA win the 400 free relay over a very talented Australian team. I think Murphy should have been allowed to swim the 100 back at WUGs, but perhaps he’ll get the chance to put up a good time during a time trial.

Sarah Henry, the 400 IM NCAA champion, will swim that event at World University Games in addition to the 800 free relay. I expect to see her among the top four Americans in the 400 IM at the end of the long course season.

Four foreigners who won NCAA titles are also likely to represent their home countries at worlds, with all of them looking for their long course breakouts to happen in Kazan. Kristian Gkolomeev has the best chance for medals, though it’s a very stacked 50 freestyle field. But, the Greek native came out of nowhere to win a stacked 50 free NCAA final in 2014, so he’s obviously not fazed by the names on a heat sheet. Finland’s Matias Koski and Venezuela’s Cristian Quintero will be looking to get into the top eight in the 200 and 400 freestyles, events that are not as top-heavy as the sprint freestyles. And Kierra Smith of Canada has an outside chance of winning a medal in the 200 breaststroke. If she can get into the final, it’s pretty much a strong race for third (with Rikke Pedersen and Yulia Efimova likely securing the top two places). Smith will also race in the Pan American Games, so she’ll need to hold her taper well in the two weeks between competitions.

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

That leaves the six without a place on an international racing roster. Unfortunately, their breakthroughs came about seven months too late, and they didn’t perform well enough at last summer’s nationals to get on one of three teams. But, water is water, and these six could still make some statements that they should be seriously considered as more than collegiate superstars.

Caeleb Dressel took a break for most of the winter and spring of 2014, which meant summer was a getting-in-shape period. The break appears to have been a success, with an 18.67 in the 50 free making him the second-fastest American in history. Can Dressel leapfrog into one of the top two or three in the long course 50 free this summer? Of course, the stranglehold that Nathan Adrian and Anthony Ervin have on the top two is hard to break, but Dressel appears to be the one to do it. Dressel’s big breakthrough came in the 100 free in 2013, when he won the junior world title in the 100 free. Dressel will turn 19 one week after this summer’s nationals, so he’ll have one more chance to break his impressive national age group record of 48.97.

Photo Courtesy: Taylor Brien

Kelsi Worrell also has the chops to do something big at nationals, but her underwater strength won’t be of much use in a long course pool. The United States needs a strong 1-2 punch in the 200 fly at the 2016 Olympics, and Worrell looks like she wants to be a part of the race at the Olympic Trials. Her 100 fly, as we have seen with her 49.81, is impressive, and she’ll need that to get ahead of a very close group of athletes in that event, including world championship qualifiers Claire Donahue and Kendyl Stewart.

Photo Courtesy: Evan Pike – USA TODAY Sports Images

Swimming enthusiasts have been waiting for David Nolan to have a 200 IM long course swim to match his greatness in the short course pool since he broke national high school records in 2010. But that swim has yet to materialize. If we were to convert his 1:39.38 in short course yards to long course, it would be a 1:54.68. That time would get him on the medal stand at worlds and the Olympics. Like Worrell, Nolan is outstanding underwater, but underwater kicking is only 30 percent of a long course race. Nolan is a very strong swimmer on top of the water, and can hold his own against the likes of Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. Hopefully, this summer will give him the confidence he needs to prepare for that electrifying 200 IM Olympic Trials final.

Photo Courtesy: Taylor Brien

Sarah Haase, Will Licon and Clark Smith are the wild cards. They had some extreme time drops to win their NCAA titles (Haase in the 100 breast, Licon in the 400 IM and 200 breast, Smith in the 500 free), so it’s difficult to judge how they will do in long course. All three find themselves in events where the top two or three places domestically are pretty much locked through next year, but fans love a spoiler and these three proved they can upset the apple cart at the big meet. Licon’s 200 breast made him the second-fastest in history and broke a major barrier, and that event could be his best chance at ranking in the top two among Americans in 2015. Haase and Smith will have to show that their highly-surprising wins were not flukes, and the fact that they are strong in other events will help those efforts.

Of course, those who did not win at NCAAs are just as likely to do some major damage in the long course pool this summer. Nic Fink, Chase Kalisz, Simonas Bilis, Elizabeth Pelton, Lia Neal and Ivy Martin are just a few college standouts who are using their runner-up statuses as fuel for rocketing to the top in the 2015 rankings.

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Coach

9 years ago

Great article. Thank you!

TGregory

9 years ago

It should be a great summer. Good survey of the field from an NCAA POV. One other contender with NCAA experience will be Runge.