We posed the question earlier this summer if 2020 would be the first year since 1896 that no swimming world records would fall. Through 10 months, it almost came true, until China’s team of Xu Jiayu, Yan Zibei, Zhang Yufei and Yang Junxuan took down the mixed medley relay world record last week at the Chinese National swimming championships in Qingdao.
But with one world record down, are any individual records in threat of falling over the next two months?
We’ve almost seen a couple. Italy’s Gregorio Paltrinieri shocked the world with a personal best time in the 1500 at the Sette Colli in Rome, just missing Sun Yang’s 8-year-old world record of 14:31. Paltrinieri was under Sun’s world record pace through 1450 meters before being unable to match Sun’s finishing kick, but nonetheless swimming the second fastest time ever with a 14:33.
Earlier this week, China’s Zhang Yufei moved up to second all-time in the 100 butterfly, narrowly missing Sarah Sjostrom’s mark from the Rio Olympics, as she became the fourth swimmer to join the sub-56 club in that event.
2020 has been a year unlike any other, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing the Olympic Games to be pushed back a whole year to 2021. With no Olympics, and no real opportunities to race because of social distancing laws that made it difficult to find training opportunities, let alone racing opportunities, the days went by, and the world record books remained untouched.
Some national age group records in the U.S. fell to those that were able to stay in shape and find racing opportunities. Some countries as well saw their national records fall, whether they were done in a sanctioned meet or just unofficially off the blocks at practice. But still, we have approached the month of October, and only one world record has fallen.
Are any individual records vulnerable to get broken this year? After China’s somewhat surprising mixed relay world record earlier this week (they were disqualified in the heats at the 2019 Worlds), it is certainly a possibility. But with so many swimmers in different levels of fitness, it is difficult to predict just who exactly could be the first individual to set a world record.
When Paltrinieri swam his 1500 best time, it was a surprising result because of how physically demanding the 1500 freestyle race is, with many thinking it would take distance swimmers the longest time to get back in shape to where they were before the pandemic.
When Zhang nearly broke the 100 butterfly record, it was surprising because she hadn’t been below 57 seconds before this year, and didn’t advance to the final at last year’s Worlds. Zhang has been a fixture on the international scene for a number of years, having won bronze in the 200 butterfly at the 2015 Worlds, but for her to get all the way down to a 55.6 in the 100 was a relative surprise.
So who is next? In a year with so many surprises, an individual world record wouldn’t even faze the swimming universe at this point after so many unprecedented events that happened already. In track and field, five world records have been set since July 30, and although all are awaiting ratification from the IAAF, that fact alone has to be assuring for fans of swimming that are fearing the world’s best will never get back to where they were before the pandemic.
This sentiment feels true to where the sport of swimming was ten years ago, when the calendar flipped to January 1, 2010 and FINA had officially banned the shiny polyurethane suits from competition, and many swimming fans wondered if those 2009 world records would ever get broken, with some perhaps lasting for 25 – 30 years.
In November 2009, John Lohn posed the question of which long course world records set in 2009 would last the longest. Since that article was written, one of those records that was deemed impossible, was broken. In 2015, Katinka Hosszu swam a 2:06.12 in the 200 IM, to lower Ariana Kukors’ record of 2:06.15, despite some believing that record was unbreakable.
In 2009, there was talk about separating the world record books to include records for times swum in textile suits as well as the times done in the shiny suits, because at the time many thought the shiny suit standards would be unreachable for the next 20 years.
In long course, it took until the 2011 World Championships for two world records to fall, when Ryan Lochte broke the 200 IM record that still stands today and Sun Yang broke the 1500 record that had stood for 10 years up to that point by Grant Hackett, the lone record to survive the shiny suits era. But in the years since then, only two women’s world records in long course still stand from 2009, while ten still stand on the men’s side, with many believing that perhaps three or four of those men’s records can fall within the next two years.
With all that being said, can 2020 bring an individual world record? Perhaps it could, in short course meters.
In 2010, it took until December at the short course World Championships for Ryan Lochte to break the first world mark of that year. It was in short course meters, but it was still a world record, and it came in a swimsuit that was far less effective than what was worn the previous year. We are in a similar situation now with a lot of uncertainties of where the best in the world are at aerobically. But with the ISL approaching in a couple weeks in Budapest, it could bring some normalcy back to swimming fans who have been starving for swim meets with more than two teams, having not really seen any action since early March.
We don’t want to make any predictions about who possibly could be the first to set an individual record, but based on the results from the few that have put on racing suits and gone off the blocks, the times done in the ISL should be fast. And maybe they’ll be quicker than anyone has gone before. It’s not impossible to think a world record could fall.
Athletes from all sports have proven they can get back to their peak form in the last few months as sports have crawled their way back to normal. Basketball players Jimmy Butler and Breanna Stewart have led their teams to the NBA Finals. Distance runners Joshua Cheptegei and Peres Jepchirchir have broken world records this summer, showing that the pandemic did not slow them down.
Perhaps individual world records could fall by the year’s end, either at the ISL or another meet, closing out one of the most bizarre years in all of our lifetimes.