5 Things from Thursday Prelims at Men’s NCAA Championships

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

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By David Rieder

The first full night of finals have not even begun at the men’s NCAA championships, but already records have gone down, and the psych sheet seedings have undergone some serious shakeup. Texas still looks like the heavy favorite to walk away with the team trophy on Saturday night, but the Longhorns are not firing on all cylinders just yet. Here’s this morning’s five things.

1. 500 free wide open following big miss by Clark Smith. It was a stunning sight: the defending NCAA champion who narrowly missed the American record just three months ago flipping first at the 250 of his heat before completely falling apart. Smith finished 21st in the event at 4:17.17. Suddenly what looked like a slam-dunk win for the favored Longhorns became wide open.

Florida’s Mitch D’Arrigo took the top seed in the event in 4:11.48, while South Carolina’s Akram Mahmoud was second. Mahmoud, who was the first to pass Smith in that final heat of the prelims, will try to become the Gamecocks’ first-ever national champion in swimming. Texas still has hope for big points, though, with Townley Haas, the star of Wednesday’s 800 free relay with his 1:30.52 split, seeded third.

And Haas’ Longhorns should be just alright. Yes, Texas loses 20 points it expected to have with a Smith victory, but the team looked like it may have such a big margin of victory that one off swim will not make or break them. Texas made big moves in relays this morning – they are first in the 400 medley and second in the 200 free – and also have Will Licon, John Murray and diver Mark Anderson in championship finals. If you are a Texas fan, it’s way too early to panic.

2. Race-of-the-meet potential in 200 IM final. Speaking of Licon, he could be part of an epic five-man showdown in the 200 IM tonight. He finished second in the race a year ago behind the now-graduated David Nolan and ranks third all-time in the event with his 1:40.09. He enters the final seeded third (1:41.37) behind the Golden Bear duo of Josh Prenot (1:41.07) and Ryan Murphy (1:41.09), who moved up to seventh and tied for ninth on the all-time lists with their prelim swims.

Also in the race will be another Cal Bear, freshman phenom Andrew Seliskar, and Georgia’s Gunnar Bentz, both of whom got under 1:42 for the first time in their careers this morning. ACC champion Brandon Fiala and Florida Gators Mark Szaranek and Jan Switkowski will make up the outside lanes. The 1:42.15 that it took to finish eighth would have comfortably beaten the 1:42.34 that Prenot swam to finish third just a year ago.

Look for a back-and-forth race in the final, with reigning NCAA swimmer of the year Murphy having the best backstroke split and Prenot and Licon specializing in the 200 breast. Prenot was the most aggressive this morning, with a 21.63 butterfly leg, while Licon likes to use his back half to make a move. None of these guys have a weak stroke – Murphy managed a respectable 29.91 breast split this morning – and a sub-1:40 effort could be required to pull out the win.

3. Caeleb Dressel making 18-low look routine. It’s becoming ridiculous, honestly. The Florida sophomore led off the Gators’ 200 medley relay in 18.32 – smashing Cesar Cielo’s meet record of 18.47 – and then leading the way in the individual event’s prelims with an 18.29. Those swims rank second and third, respectively, on the all-time list behind his otherworldly 18.23 from SECs last month. Dressel, for good measure, also owns the fourth-fastest performance ever (18.39).

Dressel, who has knocked more than four tenths off his best time since winning the NCAA title in the event a season ago at 18.66, led the field by an amazing half second in prelims this morning. Second-seeded Simonas Bilis swam right next to Dressel in the final heat and looked completely outmatched as Dressel managed to speed up his tempo on his way home (where he posted a 9.47 split).

Safe to say that nobody will be beating the young man from Jacksonville in tonight’s final. But the buzz on everyone’s lips will be records and even, amazingly, the 18-second barrier. Don’t expect something that miraculous; dropping three tenths from prelims to finals in a 50 would be a massive ask, but an effort in the 18.1-range could very well be in the cards.

4. Despite runner-up finish in 800 free relay, NC State has showed up. Dating back to last season, the Wolfpack men have now finished second in three straight relays at the NCAA Championships. But this isn’t the same old NC State team that implodes at NCAAs; quite the contrary. The Wolfpack cut three seconds from their ACC title time from last month in that relay, and the fast swimming carried over to this morning.

Anton Ipsen qualified for the final of the 500 free, and both Bilis and Ryan Held did so in the 50. They also have three B-finalists and the top seed for the 200 free relay. The data might argue that the Wolfpack are underperforming their seeds, but they had nowhere to go but down when they were seeded first in four of five relays. Regardless of any plus/minuses, a top-three finish would be an outstanding effort for NC State – who finished eighth last year – and so far they have done their part to make that a reality.

5. Beware the Bears. Cal has already started their march up the standings from a projected fifth-place finish. But who really expected anything different from Dave Durden’s Bears after five straight top-two finishes at the national level? Murphy had possibly the least surprising outside smoke swim ever when he won his 200 IM heat from lane one as the Bears took three of the top four seeds in that event.

Cal has no other individual scorers for Thursday’s finals, but their relays should be in position to score big, especially the 400 medley, where Connor Hoppe split 51.53 this morning to help ease the pain of losing Chuck Katis to graduation. The Bears have put themselves in a good position already, but Friday will be their big day with the 100s of stroke on tap.

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