Tokyo Olympic Predictions: Day Seven Sees Trifecta For Katie Ledecky in 800 Freestyle

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Tokyo Olympic Predictions: Day Seven Sees Trifecta For Katie Ledecky in 800 Freestyle

When the seventh day of finals at the Olympic Games in Tokyo gets underway, one of the feature events will be the men’s 100-meter butterfly, where American Caeleb Dressel will chase his world record of 49.50 and try to fend off Hungarian star Kristof Milak. More, the United States’ Katie Ledecky will chase her third consecutive title in the 800 freestyle. Here is who Swimming World picked for medals on Day Seven. Picks were made prior to the start of the Olympics.

Editor’s Note: Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time (e.g., New York) and 16 hours ahead of Pacific Daylight Time (e.g., Los Angeles). This year’s Olympic finals (and semifinals) will be swum at Tokyo in the morning, with prelims swum the previous evening. So, for a finals session beginning at 10:30 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Saturday morning, July 31, that would be 9:30 p.m. EDT (6:30 p.m. PDT) on Friday evening, July 30.

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Day Seven Finals

Saturday, July 31
(10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m. Japan Standard Time)

Men’s 100 Butterfly

World Record: Caeleb Dressel, USA – Gwangju 7-26-19 – 49.50
2016 Olympic Champion: Joseph Schooling, Singapore – 50.39

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

When Caeleb Dressel climbs atop the blocks for the final of the 100 butterfly in Tokyo, his race is expected to be with the clock, not the field. The American enters the Games with five of the six-fastest performances in history, and an effort in the 49-low range is expected, with a push for sub-49 not out of the question. The two-time defending world champion was as fast as 49.76 at the U.S. Trials.

If anyone is capable of giving Dressel a scare, it is Hungarian ace Kristof Milak, who is the overwhelming favorite for Olympic gold in the 200 butterfly. Milak is the European champion in the 100 fly and 200 fly and has been 50-low in the shorter distance, but he must deliver a major improvement to enter the realm of Dressel.

Among the contenders for the bronze medal are Russia’s Andrei Minakov, the silver medalist at the 2019 World Championships, and South African veteran Chad le Clos. Australia’s Matt Temple set a Commonwealth record of 50.45 at the Aussie Trials, but replicating that effort might prove difficult in a short timeframe.

Predictions

Gold: Caeleb Dressel, USA
Silver: Kristof Milak, Hungary
Bronze: Andrei Minakov, Russia

Women’s 200 Backstroke

World Record: Regan Smith, USA – Gwangju 7-26-19 – 2:03.35
2016 Olympic Champion: Maya DiRado, USA – 2:05.99

Photo Courtesy: Nina Beilby

Get ready to hear this remarkable reality a lot: The world record holder in the women’s 200 back is in Tokyo, but not swimming the event. That was the shock of the U.S. Olympic Trials when Regan Smith found herself in third place behind Rhyan White and Phoebe Bacon. Despite the fact that Smith’s best time is more than two-and-a-half seconds ahead of what it took to win gold in Rio, she won’t be in the pool to chase it.

Only Smith has broken 2:04. Only she and Kaylee McKeown have cracked 2:05.5 in the last two years. That shifts the favorite’s target directly to the Australian, who travels to Tokyo with a newly minted 100 back world record.

Kylie Masse showed well at the Canadian Trials, with training in that country disturbed more than most by the COVID-19 pandemic. The two Americans will contend, as will Italian Margherita Panziera off a strong spring. And veteran Emily Seebohm should never be discounted.

Predictions

Gold: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Silver: Kylie Masse, Canada
Bronze: Rhyan White, USA

Women’s 800 Freestyle

World Record and 2016 Olympic Champion: Katie Ledecky, USA – Rio de Janeiro 8-12-16 – 8:04.79

Katie Ledecky set the world record in the last Olympic Games in the women’s 800 free and easily won her race at the U.S. Olympic Trials. If Ledecky can top the field in Tokyo, it will be her third consecutive title in the event, and will make Ledecky just the fourth swimmer to win the same event at three straight Games.

Simone Quadarella Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala/ Deepbluemedia /Insidefoto

Ledecky, who has the top time in the world this year at 8:14.62, will be the favorite again, but Italian Simona Quadarella is a threat with others standing in her way. Australia’s Ariarne Titmus and Kiah Melverton have the second- and third-fastest times in the world this year at 8:15.57 and 8:19.05, with Quadarella (8:20.23) and upstart U.S. 15-year-old Katie Grimes (8:20.36) close behind.

Predictions

Gold: Katie Ledecky, USA
Silver: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Bronze: Simona Quadarella, Italy

Mixed 400 Medley Relay

World Record: China (Xu Jiayu, Yan Zibei, Zhang Yufei, Yang Junxuan) – Qingdao 10-1-20 – 3:38.41
2016 Olympic Champion: Olympic debut

After making its debut at the 2015 World Championships, the mixed 4×100 medley relay is set to make its Olympic debut in Tokyo. What makes this race so exciting are the strategies involved in determining which two legs will be swum by the women and which two by the men.

Photo Courtesy: Mine Kasapoglu / ISL

On paper, the favorites look to be the three medalists from the 2019 Worlds: Australia (gold), the United States (silver) and Great Britain (bronze), as all three teams have at least one world record holder. But Team USA has three (Ryan Murphy, Lilly King and Caeleb Dressel). Great Britain boasts one (Adam Peaty), while Australia also has one (Kaylee McKeown).

China holds the world record in this event as the only global mark set in 2020, but they’ll need a perfect race to be able to compete with the three World Championships medalists from 2019.

Predictions

Gold: United States
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: Australia

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