By Brian Palaschuk, Swimming World College Intern.
The 2018 Pan Pacific Championships will feature some of the best teams in women’s swimming. At home in Tokyo, the Japanese women will attempt to defend their turf from the tried and true veterans of the United States and Australia. Leading the charge is teen superstar Rikako Ikee, but she will have strong competition from Canada’s own teen x-factors Taylor Ruck and Penny Oleksiak.
In the past, the United States have dominated the Pan Pacs; however, with so many strong teams in the upswing, this year’s edition is primed to be the most competitive meet in recent history.
Swimming fans can make their predictions by analyzing historic developmental trends from the five leading Pan Pac nations (Australia, Canada, China, Japan and the United States).
Methodology
To examine athlete development, look at how each country converts World Junior Championship medals into Senior Championship medals. Calculate the ratio of senior to junior medals won and then average these ratios. Note that due to the short lifespan of the World Junior Championships, the sample sizes are quite small. That being considered, let’s jump into the analysis.
First, look at the two-year conversion from World Junior Championships to World Championships listed below.
| Country | 2013 World Championship Medals Won per 2011 World Junior Medal | 2015 World Championship Medals Won per 2013 World Junior Medal | 2017 World Championship Medals Won per 2015 World Junior Medal | Two-Year Conversion Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 1.8 | 1.13 | 0.7 | 1.21 |
| Canada | 0.11 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.27 |
| China | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 |
| Japan | 0.25 | 3 | 0.25 | 1.17 |
| United States | 1.27 | 0.69 | 2.7 | 1.56 |
Next, check the medal conversions over the four-year period.
| Country | 2015 World Championship Medals Won per 2011 World Junior Medal | 2017 World Championship Medals Won per 2013 World Junior Medal | Four-Year Conversion Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 1.8 | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| Canada | 0.11 | 1 | 0.56 |
| China | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Japan | 0.38 | 1 | 0.69 |
| United States | 1 | 1.19 | 1.09 |
Considering both the two-year and four-year conversion averages, a few trends begin to appear.
Australia
The Aussies are fairly balanced in their ability to produce strong junior swimmers and strong senior swimmers. This is also evident in their relatively stronger ability to convert junior medals into senior medals on an athlete-by-athlete basis.
Japan
The Japanese are also good at developing both senior and junior medalists. However, their conversion on an athlete by athlete basis is very poor, with only Watanabe repeating her medal performances thus far.
Canada
The Canadians are very good at developing junior medalists, but are very poor at converting those into senior medals. They lag behind in both the two-year and four-year averages with an abysmal two-year conversion average of 0.27 World Championship medals per junior medal.
United States
The Americans prove to be quite good at producing both junior and senior medals, leading the medal totals in both categories. However, they are relatively stronger at the senior level, winning more senior medals than junior medals on average.
This is a testament to the American NCAA developmental system, which keeps swimmers in the sport and allows athletes to develop over a longer time span. This is also evident in their low conversion rate on an athlete-by-athlete basis, which indicates that strong athletes stay in the sport longer, while younger athletes have more time to develop.
China
The Chinese women do not follow the conversion trends of the other Pan Pac countries. They rarely medal at the World Juniors and have erratic performances at the World Championships. I believe that their lack of success at the World Juniors is because they rarely field their most competitive swimmers. This inconsistency coupled by sporadic senior performances throws a wrench into their conversion ratios.
A Note of Discretion
Over the two-year period, very few World Junior Championship medalists develop into World Senior Medalists. In fact, over this six-year period, only Katie Mclaughlin of the United States and Emily Overholt of Canada produced a senior medal after producing a junior one.
Despite the lack of direct conversion on an athlete-by-athlete basis, this statistic does a fair job of measuring a country’s overall ability to convert junior medals to senior medals over time. For the four-year average, the correlation on an athlete-by-athlete basis is a bit stronger, with eight medal winners converting their junior medals into senior medals. Once again, the strength lies in the ability to predict a country’s overall efficiency in converting its World Junior medals into senior ones.
Predicting the Pan Pacific Championship
Swimming fans can also apply this conversion ratio to other senior meets, including the Pan Pacs. Below is the ratio of medals won at the 2014 Pan Pacific Championships to average medals won at the 2011 and 2013 Junior World Championships.
| Country | 2011 and 2013 Average Junior Medal Total with Stroke 50’s Removed | Ratio of Pan Pac Medal Total 2014 to Average Junior Medal Total |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 6 | 2.67 |
| Canada | 4.5 | 1.11 |
| China | 1 | 1 |
| Japan | 4.5 | 1.11 |
| United States | 12 | 1.75 |
Using this data, we can loosely predict the outcome of the 2018 Pan Pacific Championships by using the conversion averages previously calculated. Using the Pan Pacific conversion average, I predict that the medal table will come out as follows.
| Country | 2015-2017 Average Junior Medal Total (Stroke 50’s Removed) | 2014 Conversion Ratio | Pan Pacs 2018 Predicted Medal Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 4.5 | 2.67 | 12 |
| Canada | 9 | 1.11 | 10 |
| China | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Japan | 8 | 1.11 | 8.89 |
| United States | 8 | 1.75 | 14 |
The Home Field Advantage
I expect that this will be a fairly accurate medal table; however, one thing to note is the significance of the home field advantage. While the Australians usually convert medals on a similar level as the United States, they out-performed the United States at the 2014 Pan Pacs. Austrailia converted a junior medal to 2.7 Pan Pac medals, in comparison to the United States’ 1.75.
Based on this conversion, look for Australia to produce slightly fewer medals than their predicted total in 2018, and Japan to produce a bit more as they pick up that home field advantage. Additionally, the totals were slightly deflated in 2014 due to stronger-than-average competition from New Zealand. These factors considered, here is my revised predicted medal table for the Women’s 2018 Pan Pacific Championship.
| Country | Adjusted Prediction: 2018 Pan Pac Medal Totals |
|---|---|
| Australia | 11 |
| Canada | 10 |
| China | 3 |
| Japan | 10 |
| United States | 17 |
Despite a poor conversion ratio, Canada has a large volume of strong junior swimmers, which should bolster their medal total from 2014. The United States retains a strong core; however, based on their conversion ratio, it should fall slightly from the 2014 total. Australia will likely regress a bit towards their usual range after losing the home field advantage, but look for Japan to outperform their conversion ratio at home.
Note that China’s one medal haul in 2014 was due to a focus on Asian Games. Expect more of the same in 2018, with Asian Games set to closely follow Pan Pacs and most Chinese swimmers likely to focus their attention on Asian Games.
All commentaries are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Swimming World Magazine nor its staff.
Cool article really enjoyed it!