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NCAA Women’s Championships Up: Can Texas Challenge Stanford for Second Place?
At this point, we should not be surprised that the University of Virginia had the strongest morning session of any team at the NCAA Championships. The Cavaliers have simply been dominant all week, and that continued Saturday with six A-finalists and two more consolation finalists. Virginia will have title-favorites in Gretchen Walsh (100 freestyle) and Kate Douglass (200 breaststroke), and UVA’s biggest event was the 200 breast, where Ella Nelson and Anna Keating both joined Douglass in the top heat. Virginia has two swimmers who could score in the 1650 free, and their 400 free relay is favored to win.
Of course, the competition for first place in the team race has been relatively drama-free since Thursday. However, second place could still be in question as Texas still has a chance to mount a comeback on Stanford.
Stanford currently sits 19 points ahead of the Longhorns (276 to 257), and despite an enormous Texas performance in the 200 fly, where Emma Sticklen, Kelly Pash and Olivia Bray all made the A-final. Stanford finished the morning with four A-finalists and four B-finalists, while Texas had just one in the consol heat to go along with its three A-finalists. Sticklen is the top qualifier for the 200 fly final, while Stanford has Regan Smith seeded first in the 200 back and third in the 200 fly.
If all seeds from prelims hold and the 1650 free and 400 free relay play out exactly according to the psych sheet, Stanford would out-score Texas 116 to 88 on the final day to slightly extend the advantage for second place. The Cardinal has the second-best entry time for the 400 free relay, while Texas sits 13th. However, the 1650 free and platform diving could change the picture a little bit.
In the mile, Texas’ Erica Sullivan is the second-fastest performer in history behind Katie Ledecky, and she won the Olympic silver medal in the 1500-meter free last year. But Sullivan enters the race seeded ninth, so if she wants to win a national title in the event, she will have to record a strong time in the final heat of the afternoon and hope it holds up when the top-eight seeds swim at the start of finals. Sullivan is certainly capable of recording a title-worthy performance from a weaker heat, and at the very least, she should out-score her projection by a large margin.
As for diving, after Texas outscored Stanford 36-12 in the two springboard events, the Longhorns placed three divers, Jordan Skilken, Janie Boyle and Paola Pineda, into the championship final. That guarantees the Longhorns at least 36 points and probably more. Now, the Longhorns are set to go into the final relay ahead of Stanford, which will put the pressure on the Cardinal to score big in the 400 free relay. Current projections have Stanford finishing with 392 and Texas 381, a razor-thin margin.
Now, what looked like an outside chance for Texas to catch Stanford at the start of the afternoon has become a very real possibility.
Meanwhile, NC State and Alabama are almost certain to finish fourth and fifth, but the order remains to be decided. Currently, the Wolfpack lead the Crimson Tide by 16 points, and in Saturday’s prelims, NC State went three up, three down while Alabama finished four up, one down. NC State’s Katharine Berkoff is the second seed in the 100 free after her record-breaking performance in Saturday’s 100 back, while Sophie Hansson is the third seed as she defends her national title in the 200 breast. Emma Muzzy also got into the A-final of the 200 back. Alabama, meanwhile, has Rhyan White as a contender in the 200 back and the duo of Morgan Scott and Cora Dupree in the 100 free final before Avery Wiseman will race in the 200 breast final.
Projections have the final score as NC State 281, Alabama 275. In a tight battle like that, every swim and every point will matter as these two squads battle it out for the last team trophy up for grabs this week.
Full Up-Downs for Saturday Finals:
- Virginia 6-2
- Stanford 4-4
- Alabama 4-1
- Texas 4-1
- NC State 3-3
- Cal 2-1
- Kentucky 1-5
- Louisville 1-5
- Michigan 1-2
- North Carolina 1-1
- Penn 1-0
- Virginia Tech 1-0
- Wisconsin 1-0
- Yale 1-0
- Arizona State 0-1
- Duke 0-1
- Florida 0-1
- FIU 0-1
- Georgia 1-1
- Indiana 0-1
- Ohio State 0-1
Team Scores Through Friday Finals:
1. Virginia 386.5 2. Stanford 276 3. Texas 257 4. NC State 193 5. Alabama 177 6. California 136 7. Ohio St 131 8. Louisville 130 9. Michigan 126 10. Tennessee 107 11. UNC 85 11. Florida 85 13. Southern California 83 14. Kentucky 76.5 15. Indiana 75 16. Georgia 71.5 17. Northwestern 56 18. Wisconsin 49 19. Minnesota 43 20. Miami (Florida) 41.5 21. Arizona 35.5 22. Penn 33.5 23. Duke 27 24. Missouri 25 25. Arizona St 21 26. Virginia Tech 15 27. Arkansas 11 28. South Carolina 9 29. Notre Dame 6 29. Rutgers 6 31. UCLA 4 31. Lsu 4 33. Wyoming 2 33. San Diego St 2 33. Harvard 2 36. Texas A&M 1 36. Yale 1
