Japanese Infectious Diseases Specialist “Very Pessimistic” Tokyo 2021 Olympics Can Go Ahead

Photo Courtesy: Tokyo 2020 (with a date amendment)

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A Japanese specialist in infectious diseases has said he is “very pessimistic” about the likelihood of the Tokyo Olympics going ahead next year, unless the Games are “held in a different way, such as with no spectators or in limited numbers.”

Speaking to journalists in an online briefing on Monday, Kentaro Iwata, a professor at Kobe University Hospital, said:

“I don’t think the Olympics are likely to be held next year. People will be coming from hundreds of nations … and although Japan might have the disease under control by next summer, I don’t think that will be the case everywhere.”

He spoke as the number of infections approach 11,000, with 236 deaths, reported domestically but the number of cases globally set to past the 2.5 million mark, with more than 165,000 people having lost their lives, more than 40,000 of those now in the United States. The global recovery rate is around 625,000.

Iwata, who was critical of the Japanese government’s handling of the outbreak aboard the Diamond Princess cruise liner in February, added:

“In that sense I am very pessimistic about holding the Games next summer, unless they are held in a different way, such as with no spectators or in limited numbers.”

Japan and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) rescheduled the Olympics from a July 21 start this year to a July 23 start in 2021 after facing a wave of calls from athletes, coaches, domestic federations and health experts in March.

Iwata is not the first expert to question Tokyo’s ability to host the Games from 23 July to 8 August, 2021: Devi Sridhar, chair of global health at the University of Edinburgh, said last week that hosting the event in just over a year’s time would be “very unrealistic” unless a vaccine became available.

“If we do get a vaccine within the next year then actually I think that (the Olympics) is realistic,” Sridhar told the BBC.

“The vaccine will be the game changer – an effective, affordable, available vaccine. If we don’t get a scientific breakthrough then I think that looks very unrealistic.”

John Coates, Australian member and the head of the IOC’s coordination commission, told reporters last week that it was still “too early to say” if the outbreak could further impact the Olympics, including forcing another delay or banning spectators.

His comments followed a warning from Tokyo 2020 CEO Toshiro Muto that there were no guarantees that the rescheduled Olympic Games will go ahead as planned next year.

Tokyo 2020

Photo Courtesy: Guy Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

At the time Japan was pretty much carrying on as normal with four-time Olympic champion Kosuke Kitajima telling Swimming World in an exclusive interview that he was “a little bit sceptical as to whether people in Tokyo really understand about this virus.”

In a remote teleconference with reporters, Muto spoke through a translator, saying:

“I don’t think anyone would be able to say if it is going to be possible to get it under control by next July or not. We’re certainly are not in a position to give you a clear answer.

“Mankind should bring together all of its technology and wisdom to work hard so they can development treatments, medicines and vaccines.”

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Kimberly Joy

4 years ago

All of this overhyped virus is part of a bigger plan. There is absolutely no reason to be hypothesizing about what Will Go On a year from now or even a few months from now. It just shows that they want to keep everybody locked down being good little subjects of the world and never restore people’s freedoms.

Joe Milinovich

4 years ago

Reply to Kimberly Joy

Do you need a tinfoil hat?

Julie Tellier

4 years ago

Reply to Kimberly Joy

Kimberly Joy I don’t know about not restoring personal freedoms but I do agree the IOC is being very over dramatic about dooms day extending 16 more months. Disease, viruses, bacteria, germs in general have all been around and always will be.