Athens Predictions From an “Avid Swimming Enthusiast and Swimming World Reader!”

PHOENIX, Ariz. August 12. SWIMINFO has been encouraging its followers to develop their sense of anticipation for the upcoming days, not the least of which has been our Special Olympic Section and “Beat the Experts” contest for selection of medal winners (Enter near top of site).

We’ve even posted picks by media such as AP’s beat writers and USA Today that somehow manage at develop an “expertise” in the sport once every four years (We think they’d better serve their readers by being with Swimming every year!). All the while we’ve also encouraged you to make your own picks, just for fun. Let us encourage you again.

We’ve had one young reader really take us up on it. We received a set of predictions (Men only), with analysis, that obviously took so much effort to prepare we want to share them with you. He’d be a heck of a “Fantasy Swim League” competitor. With all the standard “The following is not necessarily the opinion [or spelling!] of this website” disclaimers in place, we want to pass them on to help you enjoy the wet parts of the Games. This gentleman certainly put time and care into his selections. And some apparent degree of insight from experience, reading and personal observation contribute as well to picks which, whether they turn out right or wrong, clearly were produced with an expressive blend of logic and passion. We hope you enjoy them as we did and that they inspire you to get your picks made. Now, exactly as he presented them to us, here are the words of a young swim fan:

————
Hi my name is Stefan Mianowski from Ft. Lauderdale Florida. I am a competetive, 18 year old swimmer currently at the U.S. open level…I am also an avid swimming enthusiast and Swimming World reader. I have traveled to 2003 World Champs in Spain and numerous National copetition here in the states. I wrote up this analysis and predictions list which i thought might be of great interest if posted on swiminfo.com… Please take a look at it and see what you think. I can revise anythign neccesary Thank you.

-Stefan Mianowski

2004 Athens Olympic Predictions

50 free- Gold- Alex Popov
Silver- Gary Hall Jr.
Bronze- Roland Schoeman
Contenders- Lezak, Hoogie

Records and times to look for???- I don’t see the WR being touched. (I think Gary Hall should focus on defending his gold rather than predict 21.5, but if he can do it I will be AMAZED) OR should fall. As many as 5 people may break 22… Time to win- 21.8

Analysis: Well Popov and Hall are the obvious picks to battle for 1, 2. Most are predicting Hall since he is the defending Champ and has the fastest time in the World this year (21.91) Do we need to remind you though that Popov won gold in this event in 92 and 96, not to mention just won World Champs last year in 21.91, same as Hall went at trials. Popov gets my vote for gold mostly cause I want him to win, and if not for his 2000 debacle (finishing 6th in 22.3) I would say no doubt for him. But it is a 50 and anything can happen, and Hall is a GREAT racer. Third is up for grabs with 3 major contenders… Im going out there picking Roland Schoeman. He has won NCAAs and has been 21.98 this year. Conventional wisdom says Lezak at 21.96 should get the nod for bronze, but after seeing how badly he choked at Worlds (22.00 2nd place in semis, 22.4 8th in finals) my confidence isn't so great. Don't count out Hoogie though.

100 free- Gold- Hoogenband
Silver- Popov
Bronze- Thorpe
Contenders- Lezak, Schoeman

Records and times to look for- Wow this one is tough to call… Hoogie is the only one with a chance at his WR or OR or 47.84. But can he do it here? I don’t see it happening. The whole field has a chance at going sub 49. Time to win 47.9 (Hoogie should definitely do this but I wouldn’t be surprised if 48 low wins it. In that case I don’t think it will be Hoogie)

Analysis: It Is Hoogenban's race to win. If he swims his best time or even within a tenth or 2 he should win. I just don't think anyone else in the world can go 47.8 yet. However, Hoogie has seemed inconsistent to me. A loss at 2003 World Champs showed while he has the WR, he is not unbeatable by any means. Popov can ride his wave of momentum from Worlds and upset, but only if Hoogie chokes, because Popov will likely go no faster than 48.2-48.4. Though he comes in with the 4th fastest time since Sydney I still think he can do it when it counts. Ian Thorpe and Lezak were my picks for bronze but I give it to Thorpe. Not nearly as much speed as Lezak, but I think he'll take it over 100 meters. Lezak will probably go slower than he did at trials. Schoeman has been 48.20 this year…

200 free- Gold- Thorpe
Silver- Phelps
Bronze- Hoogenban
Contenders- Hacket, Keller

Records and times to look for- 1:45.35, winning time in Sydney will not win it this time… I don’t think it will even medal. WR should stand, but Thorpe and Phelps will challenge it. OR should fall by about a second. 5 or more guys will go 1:46 or faster. Time to win- 1:44 mid.

Analysis: Thorpe wants this event that he lost in Sydney. But so does Michael Phelps…If anyone can take Thorpe it is Phelps who is fired up from comments by Thorpe saying a goal of 7 golds is ridiculous. Hacket, and Hoogie both have faster times than Phelps, but look for a big drop by the world’s most versatile swimmer. Unfortunately one of these great swimmers will leave without a medal. Hacket, focusing more on the 400 and 1500 will probably be that guy.

400 free – Gold- Thorpe
Silver- Hacket
Bronze- Keller
Contenders- Dragos Coman, Massi Rossalino

Records and times to look for- While I want to see Thorpe take the 400 free to 3:39, I think his WR will stay at 3:40.0. Only he has a chance to break it. OR- Thorpe should lower this by about a second. Time to win 3:40.

Analysis: The Aussies should have a 1,2 breakaway finishing in at around 3:40 and 3:42. Klete Keller will need a miracle swim to break up Thorpe and Hacket. Thorpe looks untouchable in this one though. (he needs to be since he is allowed to swim it after false starting at Aussie Trials) Keller's hopes stop at silver, a medal he can only win if he can take down Hacket. Coman and Rossalino went 3,4 at 2003 Worlds and could take a medal from Keller.

1500 free- Gold- Hackett
Silver- Larsen Jensen
Bronze- David Davies
Contenders- Yuri Prilukov, Craig Stevens, Eric Vendt

Records and time to look for- WR of 14:34 should stand. Hacket will lower the OR and Larsen Jensen should lower the American record. Time to win- 14:42 (Hackett's time can range 20 seconds, 14:30-14:50 and he'll still probably win this one though. That’s how dominant he is)

Analysis- Jensen wants to race the distance king Hackett, but he will have to wait till 2008 before he can actually give him a contest. Hackett is in a league of his own. He hasn’t lost this race in 7 years and that will not change in Athens. Both Jensen and Davies are young and fast, making for a great race here and hopefully for years to come. Both Contenders Prilukov and Stevens have been right around 15 minutes and Eric Vendt is a former American record holder.

100 back- Gold- Aaron Piersol
Silver- Lenny Krayzelburg
Bronze- Matt Welsh
Contenders- Kunpeng, Tomomi, Cseh

Record and times to look for- Piersol should finally break the WR and the OR will also fall. Time to win: 53.5 by Piersol.

Analysis: Piersol has made this his event in the last few years along with the 200 back. He has come within 3 one hundredths of the WR 3 times and should finally add it to his collection in Athens. Lenny swam great at trials, recording his best time since 2000, however age and injuries have slowed him down a bit. Don’t expect him to go much faster than 54.00. This leaves the door open for Welsh who has been 53 high, but I take Lenny in a touch out. The event will probably be slower than U.S. Trials were though… USA has 4 of the top 5 fastest times in the World in 2004 but only two could go to the Olympics of course. The contenders have been 54 low but are long shots for a medal.

200 back- Gold- Piersol
Silver- Gregor Tait
Bronze- Markus Rogan
Contenders- Bryce Hunt, James Goddard, Laslo Cseh, Matt Welsh

Records and times to look for: Piersol can lower his WR from Trials and will take nearly 2 seconds off the OR. All finalists should be under 2:00. Time to win: 1:54.5
Analysis: Aaron Piersol dropped his World Record to 1:54 at U.S. Trials. No one else in this field has been under 1:57. Look for him to win in a break away since the only man that had a chance at beating him, Michael Phelps pulled out of this event. Silver is up for grabs but look for Gregor Tait for England and Markus Rogan to really battle for this one. Both men have been hitting 1:57- 1:58 consistently the last 2 years. Bryce Hunt was 4th at 2003 Worlds and Laslo Cseh has been 1:58. He is young and could have a big drop, however no one is sure if he is 100 % after breaking his foot only weeks ago.

100 breast- Gold- Brendan Hanson
Silver- Kosuke Kitajima
Bronze- James Gibson
Contenders- Darren Mew, Roman Sloudnov, Mark Gangloff, Hugh Debusq

Records and times to look for: Brendan Hansen says he is looking for a 58.9. I don’t think he will do that, but I don’t think he will need to. WR may drop by a few 100ths, OR will fall by about a second. The entire final may all be under 1:01. Time to win: 59.5

Analysis: A very strong event right now. Many contenders and only three medals… Hansen looked GREAT at U.S. Trials. I’m not sure if he will drop more, but again, I don’t think he needs to win it. He just needs to put together something right at his best to win it. Kitajima wants his WR back im sure, but I don’t think he has the speed to get Hanson. Will Roman Sloudnov return to form? (hes been 59.9, and is the 3rd fastest man ever) Can Darren Mew make another drop (he went 1:00.02 at his trials.) So many possibilities, especially for bronze. James Gibson has the speed to challenge Hansen the first 50, but will probably fade off pace… What happened to Ed Moses? oh ya he choked again…

200 breast- Gold- Hansen
Silver- Kitajima
Bronze- Korminkov
Contenders- Ian Edmond, Jim Piper, Scott Usher, Dani Guerta

Records and times to look for: Brendan Hansen and Kitajima will battle again. Winner will probably break the WR and OR, bringing it to 2:08 high. It should be an incredible field, taking 2:12 to make it back and 2:09- 2:10 low to medal. Time to win: 2:08 high

Analysis: Kitajima and Hansen look like they can break away from the field, but don’t forget Dmitri Korminkov who went 2:09.5 and had the WR briefly in 2003. He could challenge both of the frontrunners. Scott Usher, Ian Edmond and Jim Piper have all been 2:10s… A good race by any of them could bump Korminkov out of medal contention. Dani Guerta has only been 2:13, but did that as a 14 year old, so a big drop from him is possible.

100 fly- Gold- Michael Phelps
Silver- Ian Crocker
Bronze- Andrii Serdinov
Contenders- Irog Marchenko, Geoff Huegill,

Records and times to look for: 52.00 won it all in Sydney, but will probably get about 5th in Athens. WR will probably be slightly lowered, and the OR will take a big dip. 52 low to make finals. Time to win: 50.5

Analysis- One of the main races that will determine Phelps’ quest for 7 golds is this 100 fly. He is 0 for 2 against Crocker in major meets recently. Crocker has too much speed and a solid second 50 making it very difficult for Phelps to win.

200 fly- Gold- Michael Phelps
Silver- Tom Malchow
Bronze- Takashi Yamamoto
Contenders- Pawel korzienowski, Takashi Matsuda and the rest of the 1:56 boys

Records and times to look for: WR, OR and AR should fall to somewhere around 1:53.6. It could take a 1:56 to even make finals, a time that would have medalled in Sydney. Time to win: 1:53.8

Analysis: Phelps has this one all but won, but it should be an amazing race for silver. As many as 10 other swimmers have a legitimate shot at the silver. All ten have posted times between 1:56.1 and 1:56.9. Malchow, who is suffering from a torn muscle in his shoulder, did not swim well at US trials, recording only a 1:57.5, nearly 2.5 seconds off his best. I still pick him for the silver. The defending Olympic champ and silver medallist in Atlanta has the experience and will power to overcome this obstacle and finish his career on a high note. Takashi Yamamoto also has international experience, giving him my pick at bronze. Anything could happen in this one though

200 IM- Gold- Michael Phelps
Silver- George Bovell
Bronze- Massi Rossalino
Contenders- Jani Sievinen, Markus Rogan, Ryan Lochte, Laslo Cseh, Thiago Periera

Records and times to look for: The entire final 8 should be under or right around 2 minutes. Michael Phelps dropped the 200 back to focus more on this, which should lead to a WR, OR and AR. Time to win: 1:55.6

Analysis: No one is touching Phelps in this one as he has the fastest time ever by over 2 seconds. George Bovell, fresh off his WR in the short coursed meters version of the race should contend with Rossalino, the defending Olympic champ for the silver. Others in the mix including former WR holder Jani Sievinen and IM specialist Laslo Cseh are also strong medal threats. This great field also includes American Ryan Lochte who recorded the second fastest time of the year at US trials and the European Champion Markus Rogan.

400 IM- Gold- Michael Phelps
Silver- Laslo Cseh
Bronze- Allesio Boggiato
Contenders- Ousamma Mallouli, Massi Rossalino, Erik Vendt

Records and times to look for: This one is one the first night of the Olympics. The fresh Phelps will have stiff competition for Laslo Cseh who he battled at World Championships in this event. Look for Phelps to make a statement though and lower his WR to under 4:08. A healthy Cseh could go sub 4:10 but we don’t know how his foot is. Time to win 4:07.8

Analysis: This should have been a two-man race with Phelps and Cseh crushing the field. However, as stated earlier, Cseh’s broken foot could hinder him a bit. I still take the Hungarian superstar for the silver seeing as he has been a 4:10 and the next fastest time in the world in 2004 was Boggiato’s 4:12. However talks from Cseh claiming he will beat Phelps and break his WR by a second will have to wait. World Champ bronze medallist Ousamma Malouli and Massi Rossalino could pose a threat if Cseh is hurt and if Boggiato chokes. Erik Vendt will also be right in the running for a medal.

400 free relay- Gold- U.S.A.
Silver- Australia
Bronze- Russia
Contenders- South Africa, France

Records and times to look for: US team looks stronger than ever should have no problem breaking the WR and OR of the Aussies from Sydney. I expect about 1.5 seconds to be shaved from the WR. Look for many sub 3:16 teams. Time to win: 3:11.9

Analysis: The Americans lost this one in Sydney but it should be as close a race this time. Not only has the Australian team weakened since 200, but the Americans have greatly improved, retaining Lezak and Hall from 200 and adding Phelps and Ian Crocker. Russia could also defeat the Aussies. With Alex Popov anchoring a solid Russian team, it is essentially a three-man race, as no one will run down the Russian Rocket. And don’t forget the Russians won this event at 2003 World Champs with the third fastest time in history and only 3 tenths off the WR. Australia, however, is still very strong with Thorpe and Klim and Ashley Callus returning to defend their 2000 title. Michael Klim is a key leg as he led off in WR time in 2000 but has been injured and has not swum well since. South Africa also has a strong contingent lead by Roland Schoeman and Ryk Neethling. A number of other countries will also be in the mix.

800 free relay- Gold- USA
Silver- Australia
Bronze- Italy

Records and times to look for: Australia and USA will both break the OR of 7:07 but the WR of 7:04 appears safe for now. Time to win: 7:05.8

Analysis: Australia has owned this event in the past, but it seems the USA has finally found four competitors who can make this one a real race. Phelps and Keller vs. Thorpe and Hackett is a great match up with a light advantage to the Australians. The middle two legs is where the US will have to win it for a chance at the Gold. It’s too close to call really. Ryan Lochte for the Americans is young and could get rattled by the pressure, but then again he might not even be on the relay for sure. US coaches may opt to put Aaron Piersol on it if he is available. Scott Goldblatt is a veteran and should cancel out whatever Australian he is facing. Swimming World, USA Today, and AP Experts all have Australians winning this one. That is probably the smart choice, however I go with USA. I can’t just pick all the favorites. The Olympics are all about the unexpected and the surprises. I pick US to surprise the Aussies here.

400 medley relay- Gold- USA
Silver- Russia
Bronze- Australia
Contenders- Japan, France

Records and times to look for: USA will probably be the only team in the picture so watch them and look for a 3:30. Russia looks ready for a 3:32-33 and Australia should be right around 3:33-34 as well. Time to win 3:30.6

Analysis: The question here is not who will win. The question is who will get silver or bronze. The USA has the WR holder for the back breast and fly, and the fastest freestlyer for a competitive team. Only Pieter van den Hoogenban is faster than Jason Lezak but do you really think the Netherlands will be in contention here? Bronze would be a miracle, only possible because Hoogie can split 46.4. The USA can swim this relay so many ways though. Krayzelburg or Piersol for back, Phelps or Crocker for fly and Hall or Lezak for free. The only constant looks like Brendan Hanson. Oh and another constant is USA winning this one no matter how they put it together. I like Russia’s chances here with a team that should include Roman Sloudnov and Alex Popov as well as a very strong back and fly leg.. The Aussies, although they were not even in the finals of this event at 2003 Worlds look strong enough for silver. Matt Welsh at back, Geoff Huegel or Michael Klim at fly and Ian Thorpe at free make this team my pick for silver. The breaststroke leg is very questionable for the Aussies and is Russians chance to upset them. If Sloudnov is on he could split a 59.5 or better, about a second and a half faster than any Aussie. Japan can be right in the mix too with Kosuke Kitajima about to split sub 59 for breast and a strong fly and back leg too, watch out for them.

Name*

Email*

Welcome to our community. We invite you to join our discussion. Our community guidelines are simple: be respectful and constructive, keep on topic, and support your fellow commenters. Commenting signifies that you agree to our Terms of Use