A Retrospective Look at the Summer of Truth

Photo Courtesy: Delly Carr

By Patrick Murphy, Swimming World Intern

A few months ago, I wrote an article about the importance of this “Summer of Truth” for a number of elite collegiate swimmers. Of the swimmers who competed at 2015 NCAAs and had not made a major long course international meet until Pan Pacs last summer, who has the best chance to make the 2016 U.S. Olympic team? NOTE: This excludes 2015 collegiate swimmers Kevin Cordes, Nic Fink, and Chase Kalisz who qualified for the 2013 World Championship team. My list also excludes 2014 college graduates and 2015 high school graduates.

Well, after a summer of three major international meets and one of the fastest U.S. Nationals in recent memory, who sent a strong message to his competitors? Who put himself in the driver’s seat to make a run at an Olympic berth? Who still has more work to do? Let’s revisit the potential of the 11 athletes I highlighted in May, along with a few others who had breakthrough swims this summer.

Looking Good

There are three swimmers who, in my opinion, will be favorites heading into 2016. All three had very strong long course seasons and each will be a top two seed at Olympic Trials. Here they are:

Jack Conger

Earlier in the summer, I mentioned the multitude of events that Conger could potentially swim at Olympic Trials. His primary focus has become clearer throughout the year. You can bank on Jack Conger swimming the 100 and 200 fly at Olympic Trials. His other events depend on if he chooses to swim in more than one event per session. In my opinion, he’ll definitely swim the 100 free after his 47.9 relay splits. The 200 free (final is same session as the 200 fly semi) and 200 back (final is same session as 100 fly semi) are less likely, but still possible. At this point, I expect Conger to qualify for the Olympics in the 200 butterfly based on his 1:54 from Nationals.

Caeleb Dressel

In my previous article, I wrote, “Beating Cullen Jones, Anthony Ervin, or Nathan Adrian in the 50 will be very difficult.” But after Caeleb dropped a 21.5 at Nationals, I no longer feel that way. Dressel will make the Olympics in the 50 free, and I believe he will squeak his way onto the 400 free relay.

Photo Courtesy: Sue Borst

Ryan Murphy

Murphy should be a hands-down favorite in both the 100 and 200 backstroke. His 52.18 lead-off leg of the mixed medley relay at World Championships is the fastest time in the World this year. His 1:55.00 in the 200 back, while not on par with what Ryan Lochte and Tyler Clary went in 2012, still sets him up as a top two seed at Olympic Trials. Look for the 2015 NCAA Swimmer of the Year to snag an Olympic berth in both events next summer.

Very Close/ Good Chance

This next category is a group of swimmers right on the cusp of being favorites to make the Olympic team. With another year of improvement, they have a great chance to achieve their dreams.

Reed Malone

In May, I ranked Reed Malone as the youngster with the best chance to make the Olympics (1) because the 200 free takes six swimmers to Rio and (2) because the event is WAS very weak in the US. Malone had a solid summer (he split 1:46 at Worlds), but some athletes made big gains at Nationals this summer. 1:47 no longer looks like a likely qualifying time. Assuming Malone hits the 1:45 he is capable of accomplishing based on his short course performances, he will make the Olympic team without a problem.

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Josh Prenot

Josh Prenot had a fantastic summer. He was one of the stars at WUGs, winning both the 200 breast and the 200 IM (in a tie). He went a best time and earned the silver medal in the 400 IM as well. Prenot’s best chance to make the Olympics is the 200 breast. Although he is sitting third right now, you’ve got to like his chances with this improvement curve.

Jacob Pebley

Jacob Pebley continues to chip away time in the 200 backstroke. He dropped almost a half second this year to go 1:56.29. Although that is only .03 behind the second ranked time by an American this season, we have to assume Clary (and Lochte if he swims this) will be faster next year. Still, Pebley will be right there with a legitimate chance.

Jordan Wilimovsky

Wilimovsky’s 14:57.05 in the mile ranks slightly ahead of Michael McBroom. Expect those two athletes to battle for the second Olympic berth after Conor Jaeger.

Wild Cards

David Nolan

David Nolan recently announced his move to Tempe to train with Bob Bowman, Michael Phelps, and others. Nolan has the talent to make the Olympics and has an outside shot in the 100 fly and 4×100 free relay.

Seth Stubblefield

Stubblefield performed well at WUGs and was an integral piece on relays. He did not drop time this summer, but don’t be surprised to see some drastic time drops next season from the continually improving Cal Bear. Stubblefield has the talent to make the 4×100 free relay.

Photo Courtesy: Andy Ringgold

Will Licon

Following his killer NCAA Championships, Licon continued to improve this summer (see the 200 breast chart above). But the NCAA high point scorer still has some time to drop in order to catch Kevin Cordes, Nic Fink, and Prenot in the 200 breast.

Clay Youngquist

Youngquist did not get an opportunity to swim on the 4×200 relay at World Championships, but he did go 1:47.9 again at WUGs. Like I said earlier, 1:47.9 does not look as good this summer as last summer, so Youngquist still has some work to do.

New Additions

Michael Chadwick

Chadwick is a rising junior at Missouri who placed fifth in the 100 freestyle at NCAAs. He burst onto the scene with a 48.8 at Georgia Sectionals. He did not repeat that time at Nationals, but he is a fast-improving young talent who may be top six in the 100 freestyle at Olympic Trials.

Jay Litherland

I have already mentioned Litherland as a potential Olympic Trials upset earlier this summer. He sits right behind Clary and his teammate Kalisz in the 400 IM. He won WUGs in a 4:12 and if he continues to improve at this rate, he has a legitimate chance to upset Clary or Kalisz next summer.

Clark Smith

Everyone knew this was coming. Yes, the sophomore from Texas who won an NCAA title this year (after not making NCAAs last year) is a new addition to this list. Smith’s 3:47.10 in the 400 free at Nationals ranks fourth in the US this season. Look for Smith to continue his upward trajectory and earn an Olympic berth in this event.

Andrew Wilson

I’m being honest when I say that I’ve never heard of Andrew Wilson before US Nationals this summer. But he is a DIII swimmer who makes Josh Prenot’s breaststroke improvement look miniscule. Wilson dropped six seconds in the 200 breast to go 2:09, and he shaved three seconds in the 100 to go 59.6. With that improvement, anything is possible next summer.

For the athletes mentioned in this article, I’ve given you my opinion. What do you think?

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