6 Races that Will Decide the Women’s NCAA Championship Saturday Night

Photo Courtesy: Griffin Scott

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If you’re reading this post, congratulations. You’ve made it through two days of bad predictions I’m sure will end up completely wrong. But I may as well finish this off. The final evening of the women’s NCAA championship meets will feature five individual finals and the 400 free relay to wrap things up. And do not be surprised if when that relay goes into the water if the team title is still up for grabs.

Oh, and who is going to win that team title? You’ll just have to read through this entire article to find out.

1650 free

First: Leah Smith, Virginia
Second: Brittany MacLean, Georgia
Third: Hannah Moore, NC State

Smith took down MacLean’s NCAA record in the event at the ACC championships last month, and she should continue her quest towards Katie Ledecky-only territory. MacLean has returned from injury this season and should be in the mix as it’s unlikely anyone else in this field can get under the 15:40 barrier. Ohio State’s Lindsey Clary, Florida’s Jess Thielmann and Michigan’s Gillian Ryan all figure to be in the race for third, and also watch out for Indiana’s Haley Lips and Wisconsin’s Danielle Valley to set tough times to beat out of the afternoon heats.

200 back

First: Courtney Bartholomew, Virginia
Second: Kathleen Baker, Cal
Third: Danielle Galyer, Kentucky

As good as Bartholomew has been in the backstroke events – she was the runner-up in this race Missy Franklin last season – the X-factor is Cal senior Elizabeth Pelton. She enters seeded 11th in this event at 1:52.12, but she has the fastest best time in the field; in fact, her lifetime best time of 1:47.84 remains the American record. She has the potential to win this event as she did her freshman year if she can return to her top form – or she could miss the final entirely. Like the 100 back, this event has some seriously improved speed this season, with Amy Bilquist, Janet Hu, Lisa Bratton, Tasija Karosas and Kylie Stewart are among the other contenders.

100 free

First: Lia Neal, Stanford
Second: Farida Osman, Cal
Third: Natalie Hinds, Florida

Plenty of fast sprinters in this field, but I see this one staying straight chalk off the psych sheet. Neal’s teammate Simone Manuel won a season ago but misses this meet on an Olympic redshirt, as does Georgia’s Chantal Van Landeghem. Osman had a breakout performance at Pac-12s last month, but her stronger chances at an individual championship will come earlier in the weekend in the 50 free and 100 fly. Texas A&M’s Beryl Gastadello and Tennessee’s Kira Toussaint should be factors, and watch as well for Louisville’s Mallory Comerford, whose ACC championship performance in the 200 free suggests she has more in the tank in the 100 than her 17th-seeded 48.31.

200 breast

First: Lilly King, Indiana
Second: Laura Simon, Virginia
Third: Madisyn Cox, Texas

Five of the eight finalists from last year will not return, including defending champion Kierra Smith, who is taking an Olympic redshirt. Indiana freshmen King and Miranda Tucker bring some serious fresh speed to this field, and UMBC’s Emily Escobedo has dropped 2.5 seconds since last season and enters seeded second. Simon and Cox – who figures to earn multiple top three finishes on the weekend – will have a multitude of challengers for podium spots: Andrea Cottrell, Weronika Paluszek, Bethany Galat, Sarah Haase, Abby Duncan and others.

200 fly

First: Kelsi Worrell, Louisville
Second: Ella Eastin, Stanford
Third: Hali Flickinger, Georgia

This one looks like a showdown between the meet’s top senior (Worrell) and the top freshman (Eastin). Those two are the only swimmers who have been under 1:52 this season. Worrell won this race last season in 1:51.11, and she has an outside shot of challenging Elaine Breeden’s American record of 1:49.92. Georgia will need big points from Flickinger and Megan Kingsley if they hope to have a shot at the team title on the last day, and Cal should expect the same from Naomie Thomas and Kelly Naze.

400 free relay

First: Stanford
Second: California
Third: North Carolina State

Even without Simone Manuel, the Cardinal enters as the top seed with Janet Hu, Ally Howe, Ella Eastin and Lia Neal having recorded a 3:11.42 at the Pac-12 championships. This one should be really competitive, though, with NC State, Cal, USC and possibly Tennessee and Georgia all in the mix. Farida Osman and Amy Bilquist will be critical for the Bears, and Rike Bonnema needs to post a big split to get the Wolfpack into the top three. The performances of Anika Apostolon and Kirsten Vose at Pac-12s put the Trojans into the conversation, and the Lady Vols have Kira Toussaint in support of senior Faith Johnson.

And if the pre-meet scoring projections are correct, the team race will not be decided until this relay is in the water. Unlike last year, where the Missy Franklin-led Cal squad was heavily favored to earn a team championship, this team title race could include four different teams. Scoring out the psych sheet results in a Cal victory with Stanford – who defeated the Bears both in the dual meet and conference championship action – just 24 points behind.

Expect the Georgia Bulldogs to make a run, as they almost always do, as they compete just an hour away from Athens. Georgia has finished in the top two each of the past five seasons. Virginia hopes to take advantage of one last meet with both Courtney Bartholomew and Leah Smith, Texas A&M could keep moving up despite the losses of Cammile Adams and Sarah Henry in consecutive years and USC was the surprise winner of the Pac-12 championship.

In this month’s issue of Swimming World Magazine, I predicted Georgia to win the national championship. But that article was due in January, long before anyone had the luxury of conference championship results or psych sheets. So I hope all of you will forgive me for taking a stab at a revised top-ten. And here it is.

Can a team really lose their top swimmer and their top diver to Olympic redshirts and still win a national championship? That’s the challenge Stanford faces with both Simone Manuel and Kassidy Cook on the sidelines. But the Cardinal always swim at a high level at the NCAA Championships, and I think they depart Atlanta with their first team title since 1988.

Predictions for Top Ten Teams

1. Stanford
2. California
3. Georgia
4. Virginia
5. Texas A&M
6. Southern California
7. Louisville
8. Tennessee
9. Texas
10. North Carolina State

Special thanks to Price Fishback for contributing psych sheet analysis.

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Dunc1952

8 years ago

Who do we credit with writing this series? Nice to credit Price, but …..

Jason Marsteller

8 years ago

Reply to Dunc1952

David Rieder. The Author information is at the bottom of every article.

Dunc1952

8 years ago

David R. responded to my comment about Amy Bilquist’s status yesterday. Does that mean he wrote the whole series? Come on. Step out there and take ownership! You are using pretty good source material (i.e. Price’s analysis, etc.) and rational considerations. Take credit for good work!!! Just know these things are so close no one gets them all right!

Dunc1952

8 years ago

Cool. Sorry. My error. I just didn’t scroll down far enough, Jason. Everybody have fun following the outcome!

Annie Grevers

8 years ago

Reply to Dunc1952

Yes! Excellent analysis, Rieder! Thoroughly enjoyed your insights.