What Other World Records (LCM) Could Fall in Summer of 2022?

Ariarne Titmus -- Photo Courtesy: Delly Carr/Swimming Australia

What Other World Records (LCM) Could Fall in 2022?

We have seen four individual world records broken so far this year. Two of those performances came at the Australian Championships in Adelaide in late May as Zac Stubblety-Cook became the first man under 2:06 in the 200 breaststroke and Ariarne Titmus clipped Katie Ledecky’s world record in the women’s 400 freestyle. The other two were at the World Championships last month in Budapest as Thomas Ceccon pulled off a stunning performance in the men’s 100 backstroke and then Kristof Milak rode the energy provided by the Hungarian fans to breaking his own global standard in the men’s 200 butterfly.

Could we see more history made in the last month of long-course championship swimming for the year? Absolutely. While the U.S. National Championships coming up in Irvine, Calif., will likely be missing many top U.S. athletes, we could see some remarkable performances at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham, England, held July 29-August 3, and the European Championships in Rome, set for August 11-17.

So what records are most likely in jeopardy? Stubblety-Cook, Titmus, Ceccon and Milak will all be in action, so any of those individuals could lower their already-established standards. This analysis will focus on other events.

In Serious Danger

Women’s 200 Freestyle: Following her breakthrough Olympics when she won two gold medals, Titmus has been on fire so far in 2022, and in Birmingham, she will have a very realistic chance of adding a world record in the 200 free to her résumé. Titmus owns three of the four fastest times ever in the event, the best of which was a 1:53.09 she swam last June to miss Federica Pellegrini’s supersuit-era world record of 1:52.98 by just 0.11. Her top time in 2022, a 1:53.31 from May, was more than a second-and-a-half quicker than the winning time from the World Championships (with Titmus absent). Given Titmus’ career track, it is only a matter of time before Titmus gets down to Pellegrini’s 13-year-old mark.

An Outside Possibility

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David Popovici — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Staccioli / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

Men’s 100 Freestyle: At the World Championships, 17-year-old Romanian David Popovici swam the fastest time in nine years in the 200 free, and he sizzled in the 100 free as well. He swam a world-junior-record time of 47.13 in the semifinals to come within range of Cesar Cielo’s mark of 46.91, another 13-year-old standard, so Popovici should be hunting for the record once again at the European Championships. Kyle Chalmers, racing at the Commonwealth Games, will also look for an elite-level mark in the blue-ribband event, and he owns a lifetime best of 47.08.

Women’s 200 Breaststroke: Tatjana Schoenmaker was one of the breakout stars of the Olympics as she captured silver in the 100 breast and then became the first woman ever under 2:19 in winning gold in the 200 breast. Schoenmaker skipped the World Championships, but she will be back in action at the Commonwealth Games. We don’t know what sort of form she is in this year, but she’s a world-record holder racing at her focus meet, so there is a chance.

Men’s 100 Butterfly: Three days his world-record-setting swim in the 200 fly, Milak became the clear favorite for a 100 fly world title when Caeleb Dressel withdrew from the meet. And since Milak had finished just behind Dressel as the American set the world record at 49.45 in the 2021 Olympic final, it looked like Dressel’s sprint mark was in real danger. Milak ended up finishing in 50.14, well off the record, but perhaps he will have more speed at the European Championships.

Men’s 1500 Freestyle: After finishing outside the medals in the 800 free and barely qualifying for the final of the 1500 free, Gregorio Paltrinieri ripped off the second-fastest mark in history (14:32.80) to claim the third world title of his career in the mile. He was under world-record pace for the majority of the race, but he could not keep pace with Sun Yang’s historic final 100 meters. Can the 27-year-old find just a little more speed on each length to give himself a real chance at the record?

Women’s 100 Backstroke: Last month, Kaylee McKeown won a world title in a tight finish in the 200 back plus three silver medals (200 IM, mixed 400 medley relay and women’s 400 medley relay), but she skipped the 100 back, an event where she holds the world record. Her relay leadoff performances were more than a second shy of the 57.45 she set in 2021, so perhaps McKeown is missing some of the speed that vaulted her to the top of the backstroke world last year. But the 21-year-old might need her best form to hold off Kylie Masse in the 100 back, so keep an eye on the record just in case.

Men’s 100 Breaststroke: After missing Worlds with a foot injury, Adam Peaty will be back in action for Commonwealth Games. Peaty has lowered the world record in the event five times in his remarkable career, and he spoke late last year about “doing a time that can never be beaten” in his signature event. However, given his post-Olympic layoff and his recent injury, Peaty has a much stronger chance of lowering the world record in 2023 or 2024.

Women’s 50 Breaststroke: Benedetta Pilato set the world record of 29.30 in the 50 breast last year, and after Ruta Meilutyte touched out Pilato for this year’s world title, the two will meet again in Rome at the European Championships. Maybe Pilato, buoyed by a home crowd in the Italian capital, can approach her best once again.

Highly Unlikely

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Elijah Winnington — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Staccioli / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

Men’s 400 Freestyle: With an insane final 50 meters, Elijah Winnington pulled away from Lukas Martens to capture a world title in the 400 free, and his final time of 3:41.22 made him the second-fastest Australian in history — especially significant when considering that he moved ahead of the legendary Grant Hackett and the fastest is Ian Thorpe. Moreover, Winnington’s time left him just over a second behind Paul Biedermann’s suit-aided world record of 3:40.07, a 2009 swim which beat Thorpe’s previous mark of 3:40.08. And earlier in the year, Martens also swam under 3:42. Both men will be racing again at major competitions (Winnington at the Commonwealth Games, Martens at the European Championships), and both are at the beginning of their prime (Winnington is 22, Martens 20), so it’s plausible they could take a shot at this long-lasting world record in the future.

Women’s 100 Butterfly: Here’s another record that you have to think will be gone before too long, but this year looks unlikely. The list of swimmers that have clocked times within three tenths of Sarah Sjostrom’s six-year-old 100 fly world record includes Maggie Mac Neil, Zhang Yufei, Torri Huske and Emma McKeon. Mac Neil and McKeon will both be in action at the Commonwealth Games, but they have both raced sparingly recently, so it’s unlikely they will approach best times in Birmingham.

Men’s 200 Freestyle: Biedermann’s world records have never been seriously challenged, and now they are both appearing on one list. It won’t happen this year, not after Popovici’s huge breakthrough swim in Budapest (1:43.21) left him more than a second shy of the German’s time from 2009, but it looks probable that the Romanian teenager will be the one to finally crack through this long-lasting mark in the 200 free. One day.

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jpm49

1 year ago

And for Summer McIntosh : 400 IM, from 4.29.12 to less than 4.26.36? One day for sure, this year maybe.