U.S. Nationals Day Three Predictions: Carson Foster Aiming for Another 400 IM Medal Run

Carson Foster of United States competes in the 200m Individual Medley Men Final during the FINA Swimming Short Course World Championships at the Melbourne Sports and Aquatic Centre in Melbourne, Australia, December 13th, 2022. Photo Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

Carson Foster -- Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

U.S. Nationals Day Three Predictions: Carson Foster Aiming for Another 400 IM Medal Run

When Carson Foster went up against Leon Marchand in the 400-yard IM at this year’s NCAA Championships, it was no contest. Marchand was more than a second clear of Foster after 100 yards, almost three seconds up at the halfway point and more than seven seconds ahead by the finish. That domination was a far cry from the 400-meter IM matchup between the two at last year’s World Championships. Even when Marchand used a historic 1:07.28 breaststroke split to scorch the field and threaten the world record, Foster led at the halfway point and actually out-split his French rival on three strokes.

Was their NCAA race the new normal? Perhaps not — Marchand’s skill set is far more suited to short course than Foster’s. The next matchup between the duo, two weeks after NCAAs at the TYR Pro Swim Series in Westmont, Ill., was much more akin to their Worlds matchup, with Foster leading through the halfway point on the way to a time of 4:09.69, which currently ranks him fourth in the world. Of course, Marchand swam the world’s quickest time that night with his 4:07.80.

Foster owns a 400 IM best time of 4:06.56 that ranks him as the eighth-fastest performer in history in the event and fourth-quickest American behind the trio that has combined to win four of the last five Olympic gold medals: Michael Phelps, Ryan Lochte and Chase Kalisz. He is coming off a three-medal performance at last year’s Worlds, with silver medals in both individual medley races along with an 800 free relay gold as part of a resurgent American squad.

Later in the summer, Foster showed his capabilities in other events as he swam the fastest times in the U.S. in the 200 butterfly and 400 freestyle along with an elite 200 backstroke. That means the 21-year-old, who turned professional last month, will have numerous options for his event schedule at next week’s U.S. Nationals. He is entered in six events, with top-seeded times in the 200 fly, 400 IM and 400 free, the second-best time in the 200 IM and third-seeded marks in the 200 free and 200 IM.

Foster is virtually certain to race both IM events and the 200 free, with an 800 free relay spot on the line. There is little downside to racing the 200 fly on the first day of the meet considering he would probably be the favorite in the event and it fits into his likely schedule at the World Championships, but the 200 back would be a tougher fit considering that race is scheduled the same day as the 200 free. As for the 400 free, Foster would likely drop that race assuming he qualifies in the 400 IM, with both of those events scheduled for the first day of Worlds.

In short, it will be a busy week for Foster, but the 400 IM is his primary event, the one in which he first made his mark internationally. If not for the masterful performances by Marchand over the last year, Foster would be regarded as the World Champs favorite in this event. As it is, his 4:06 performance last year went unnoticed because of Marchand’s mastery, but Foster could continue to climb the all-time rankings this season.

Record Watch

The oldest long course American record could go down on day three in Indianapolis as Katie Grimes races the women’s 400 IM. Earlier this year, Grimes swam a mark of 4:31.81 that was just seven tenths off the American record of 4:31.12 set by Katie Hoff at the 2008 Olympic Trials. Both Elizabeth Beisel (2012) and Maya DiRado (2016) have come up just marginally short of that record in their respective silver-medal swims at the Olympics.

Grimes was a surprise qualifier for the 2021 Olympic team, and then she won silver medals at last year’s World Championships in both the 1500 free (behind Katie Ledecky) and 400 IM (behind Summer McIntosh). Just like Marchand in the men’s version of the event, McIntosh is going to be really tough to beat in the medley this year after she set a world record of 4:25.87 earlier this year, but no one else globally has approached 4:31 territory aside from Kaylee McKeown, who will not swim the 400 IM at Worlds.

Interestingly, this race will take place 15 years to the day after Hoff set the existing record. A sub-4:31 performance (or perhaps even a sub-4:30) would cement Grimes as the world’s No. 2 performer in this event entering Worlds.

Day Three Predictions:

Women’s 400 IM

Katie Grimes
Alex Walsh

Walsh is the two-time NCAA champion in the 400-yard IM, and she is set to race this event at a long course selection meet for the first time.

Men’s 400 IM

Carson Foster
Chase Kalsiz

Women’s 100 Butterfly

Torri Huske
Claire Curzan

Regan Smith is a huge threat if she swims the 100 fly, and Kate Douglass will be in the mix.

Men’s 100 Butterfly

Shaine Casas
Caeleb Dressel

Dressel, Casas and Michael Andrew all swam sub-51 last year.

Women’s 50 Breaststroke

Lilly King

Men’s 50 Breaststroke

Nic Fink

Look for a showdown with Michael Andrew, and whoever does not earn the lone qualifying spot should still get a chance to race the event in Fukuoka.

Women’s 50 Backstroke

Regan Smith

This is the best chance for Katharine Berkoff, last year’s Worlds silver medalist, to make the team.

Men’s 50 Backstroke

Hunter Armstrong

World-record holder Armstrong and world champion Justin Ress have developed a back-and-forth rivalry in the 50 back.

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