The Women’s World Records Most Likely to be Broken at the Tokyo Olympics
So far in 2021, only three swimmers have set long course world records, and two of those were at the European Championships in 50-meter events that will not be contested at the Olympics. So the only record-setter preparing to go for gold in that event in Tokyo is Australia’s Kaylee McKeown, who swam a 57.45 in the 100 back at Australia’s Olympic Trials last month to knock 0.12 off Regan Smith’s previous world record. But the biggest meet on swimming’s calendar is almost sure to produce more of these records.
Of the 14 individual women’s events in Tokyo, either 10 or 11 will feature the current world record-holder. The only question mark is the women’s 100 butterfly, where Sarah Sjostrom has said she is unsure if she will participate after a long recovery from a fractured elbow earlier this year. Several of these record holders have not swum close to their best marks in years, while one swimmer yet to set her first long course world record put a scare into two of them earlier this year.
So which women’s world records are in the most danger at the Olympics?
100 Backstroke: This is an obvious choice for the list as McKeown will be looking to lower her own world record while competing against surely the fastest field in history in the women’s 100 back. There has never been a heat where more than one swimmer broke 58—heck, just two years ago in the last World Championships final, no one had ever broken 58—but three swimmers have already been in that range this year: McKeown (57.45), Canada’s Kylie Masse (57.70) and the USA’s Smith (57.92), with Great Britain’s Kathleen Dawson just behind at 58.08. That level of talent competing means the world record is at huge risk of going down again.
Torri Huske — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
100 Butterfly: Even if Sjostrom chooses to skip the 100 fly and focus on the sprint freestyle races, this one sets up to be a brilliant race. American teenager Torri Huske swam a 55.66 to break the American record at U.S. Olympic Trials, and China’s Zhang Yufei (55.73) and Australia’s Emma McKeon (55.93) have both broken 56 this year. Canada’s Maggie MacNeil, the reigning world champion, has been 56.14 after a marvelous college season when she became the first woman under 49 in the 100-yard butterfly. Any of these swimmers could eclipse the 55.48 that Sjostrom swam to win gold at the Rio Olympics.
200 & 400 Freestyle: What does Ariarne Titmus have left in the tank? That is the key question after Titmus swam a 3:56.90 in the 400 free at Australia’s Olympic Trials, less than a half-second off Katie Ledecky’s world record and then a 1:53.09 in the 200 free, merely a tenth off Federica Pellegrini’s 12-year-old suit-aided world record. It would be an absolutely astounding performance if Titmus could get down to either or both of those records, but it’s a very realistic possibility. Titmus had been flying under the radar prior to Australia’s Trials after dealing with a shoulder injury late last year. Not anymore.
100 Breaststroke: Lilly King is the heavy favorite for gold in the 100 breast, where she is the only swimmer to crack 1:05 since 2017. After she swam a 1:04.72 at the U.S. Olympic Trials, is King ready to take a shot at her world record of 1:04.13 from 2017? King is known for delivering her best performances in the biggest moments, and the Olympics is as big as it comes for swimming. Without longtime rival Yuliya Efimova or any other swimmer likely to pose a major challenge, will King be able to fire herself up to the level needed for a record run?
200 Backstroke: McKeown’s huge year has seen her become the third-fastest woman ever in the 200 back at 2:04.28, behind only Smith, who missed qualifying at the U.S. Trials, and Missy Franklin. If Smith had been in the field, this could have been an amazing duel for gold with the world record of 2:03.35 potentially in trouble, but now, it could be tough for McKeown to drop a full second from her lifetime best as the clear favorite for Olympic gold.
American breaststrokers Lilly King & Annie Lazor — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
200 Breaststroke: This one is a little bit out there since no swimmer has posed a serious threat to Rikke Moeller Pederson’s world record of 2:19.11 in years. In fact, no one in this Tokyo field has ever broken 2:20, and no one period has broken 2:20 since Efimova in 2017. Efimova, the two-time defending world champion, did not qualify to represent Russia in the 200-meter event at the Olympics, so the favorites will be the six swimmers who have swum under 2:22 this year: Tatjana Schoenmaker, Molly Renshaw, Annie Lazor, Evgeniia Chikunova, Abbie Wood and King. So world record, maybe?
The rest: Sjostrom’s sprint freestyle world records world records from 2017 (23.67 in the 50 free and 51.71 in the 100 free) are a little bit out there. They are probably safe for Tokyo, particularly with Sjostrom not likely to be in top form for the Olympics, but you never know. This year, no one has been within a half-second of the world record in the 100 or within a quarter-second in the 50.
Ledecky probably would not need to come close to her 800 and 1500 free world records to win Olympic gold in those events. She swam her 800 free world record of 8:04.79 at her absolute peak at the Rio Olympics, and her 1500 final will come just after her 200 free final. In the IM events, Katinka Hosszu would be assured gold if she could replicate her world records from the Rio Games, but those times (2:06.12 and 4:26.36) are well out of range for Hosszu or anyone else in the field.
And Liu Zige’s world record of 2:01.81 in the 200 fly? No way.