The United States is Not All That Great At the 200 Butterfly

Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

By Jason Tillotson, Swimming World College Intern.

Okay. Before all the crazed Michael Phelps and Misty Hyman fans pick up their torches and pitchforks, let me explain. Let’s pretend, for the briefest of moments, that Michael Phelps and Misty Hyman never existed. Without Phelps or Hyman, the United States’ role in recent Olympic history of the 200m butterfly is, dare I say, mediocre?

After Tom Malchow won the gold at the Sydney Olympics in 2000, no American male, besides Michael Phelps, has earned a medal in the 200m Butterfly at any other Olympic Games. Malchow would go on the place 8th in Athens, behind Phelps winning gold. At the Beijing Olympics in 2008, Phelps won the gold again while Gil Stovall, the second American, failed to advance past the semi-finals. At the London Olympics in 2012, Phelps would go on to lose the event for the first time in international competition since 2001, placing second to South Africa’s Chad le Clos. In that same race, Tyler Clary, the second American, placed 5th. At Rio, in 2016, Phelps earned yet another gold, while Tom Shields, the second American in that race swam to a 20th place finish.

The same one-swimmer dominance is seen on the women’s side. Misty Hyman won gold in 2000 (and, to this day, is USA’s most recent female gold medalist in that event) while Kaitlin Sandeno earned a 5th place finish. At Athens in 2004, Sandeno would take the bronze with no other American even making the final. Along comes Beijing 2008 and our two Americans, Elaine Breeden and Kathleen Hersey, take 7th and 8th. In London 2012, Hersey and Cammile Adams would take 4th and 5th place. Most recently in Rio, Cammile Adams got 4th and Hali Flickinger got 7th.

Misty Hyman

So after digesting all of these heavy facts, let’s break them down. With the absence of Hyman and Phelps, the United States would not have any gold medals in the 200m butterfly since 2000 (excluding Malchow’s gold in 2000). Since Hyman’s retirement, the women have not medaled higher than bronze since 2004 as well as not medaled since 2008.

Without Phelps, no men would have even medaled at the Olympics, post 2000. The world records would have been a different story as well. Phelps has held the world record since 2001 and has broken it eight times and still remains the only man to have ever broken 1:52. Hyman broke a 19-year-old record and held it securely for nine years, until it was broken in the super-suit era by Mary Descenza. This clearly shows that the United States’ success at the Olympics in this event was heavily dominated by Phelps and Hyman.

That raises another question; is the success of Phelps and Hyman, in the 200m butterfly, indicative of how successful the U.S. is as a whole? I would argue that it is not.

Phelps is the greatest of all time, especially in his signature stroke, and so is Hyman. However, because of these anomalies, the rest of the U.S. was, sort of, swept under the rug when it came to the 200m fly. On the men’s side, even at the 2016 U.S. Olympic Team Trials, the majority of the final swam it in a time of 1:56, with the 8th place finisher going a 1:58. That’s only a one-second improvement from the 2012 trials from a last-place-time stand point. Even the average time from trials in 2012 was faster than 2016.

Imagine every major race where Phelps won by a body-length and an American did not finish higher than eighth (2007 World Championships, 2008 Olympic Games, 2009 World Championships, just to name a few). With this, and the Olympic history, it is absolutely correct to say that Phelps was carrying the U.S. on his back in this event.

On the women’s side, the same effects take place. In the past two Olympic Trials, we have women swimming the race slower than 2:10 and still making the final. That is the The Post-Misty-Hyman-Effect in full force.

This is where the men are headed as well, in this event. Phelps has not left the 200m butterfly in the greatest hands, and we celebrate when we see the fastest women in the country barely going under 2:10 at Olympic Trials. When will we see another textile 1:52 for the men? A 2:05 for the women? Who knows? What we do know is that the U.S. has some work to do in the 200m fly.

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Sean

7 years ago

Adams went 2:05.9 in the Rio final

Matt

7 years ago

Jack Conger will take Men’s 200 Fly to a new level

Bil Bell

7 years ago

I won’t say Musty’s win wad a fluke but then wr- holder Susie o’Neill if Ausrealia had I believe either the semis or finals if the 200 free same day as 200 fly finals and test was a factor in her not winning.

David Rieder

7 years ago

Sean, Cammile has been excellent these past few years, but her silver in the event last summer in Kazan was the first medal the U.S. has even won at Worlds since 2007 (Kim Vandenberg). Unlike the current weakest U.S. event (200 breast), this one has been fairly weak for a long time.

But honestly, I think the men’s situation is worse. Conger showed a lot of promise last summer but then was noncompetitive the 200 fly at Trials. Clary and Shields have both had some decent swims in this, but this is not the best event for either, and hence the consistency has been lacking. I’d be surprised if an American is in medal contention next summer in Budapest.

Terry Zamor

7 years ago

Amazing article, very well written.

Evan Thomas

7 years ago

Reply to Terry Zamor

Agreed. Great article with proper supporting evidence.

Andy Ross

7 years ago

Kaitlin Sandeno was 4th in Athens. But I agree with this article.

samswims

7 years ago

WOW! Love this new perspective, thanks Jason

Leander

7 years ago

Other than Grant Hackett and Kieran Perkins, no Australian has won an Olympc medal in the 1500 since the 1976 Olympics. Why are they so bad at this event?

Jean Mcguinn

7 years ago

I would guess that the majority of swimmers find the 200 fly too taxing!

Max your favorite

7 years ago

It coo

Dan Patterson

7 years ago

Most of the quicker guys avoided the 200, which made it more fun for ME!

Brad Boelter

7 years ago

Or, the mega-team concept promoted by USA Swimming does not allow the development of these swimmers?

Eric

7 years ago

Someone will come out of the woodwork in the USA and dominate swimming like Phelps did. It may take an Olympics or two, but there is someone out there that will break a 1:51 in the 200 fly. Records were made to be broken.

Lelah Olender

7 years ago

Kerry That broken 200 fly we did in our last set with IMs today was more butterfly than I’ve done in a year and a half. So proud I could manage that! ???

Kristie Wisniewski

7 years ago

Which is why he will unretire again and swim at least that in 2020.

David Rieder

7 years ago

Reply to Kristie Wisniewski

I don’t think Phelps is coming back (but I have heard many different opinions on this). Still, I would be stunned if he comes back and resumes swimming the 200 fly. He got his vindication in Rio.

Pete Fitzpatrick

7 years ago

doing a fast 200 fly fast and in good form is hard!

Roberto Bazzi

7 years ago

Great article! Good qay to back up and present the other side of a coin.

Hana Angel Gabriella

7 years ago

Awesome

Tyler Yates

7 years ago

Yeah it is. But our swimmers all compete for other countries.

Mariana Vayanas

7 years ago

Oh, we’re still pretty great. Everybody needs to relax! My son loves the 200 fly, he’d rather do that than the 200 free, he’s just 15 and loves the swim world ????

Richard Clifford

7 years ago

Steve Gregg

HulkSwim

7 years ago

does the ncaa’s value on sprinting and shorter races have something to do with this? i’m not sure, but it’s worth a thought. a lot of sprint flyers have strokes that are 50/100 focused. so unlike backstroke, which is similar technique just adjusted tempos, sprint butterfly has taken on a ‘stroke’ of it’s own.

the other idea is the rise of speed based training (usrpt, etc) but that’s still not going to explain the 2000-2008 years.

i’d be curious to know how many 100m finalists also appear in the 200m final at elite meets, in butterfly and other strokes. my suspicion is 200 butterfly is getting more specialized, which doesn’t lend itself to USA based programs, which typically don’t love specialization.

Reed Mathews

7 years ago

You should read this Colleen

Gary

7 years ago

Interesting, but I don’t see that it would be for lack of effort or coaching, although I probably wouldn’t know if it was.

I take the successes happily and don’t worry too much about what wasn’t meant to be. It probably doesn’t matter for an individual event, but not doing well provides for increased future motivation.

One factor in success has to be the number of participants (the pool in the pool) which helps to find those with specific superior genetics for a particular event. In other words, chance is a factor that is always present. Enjoy it while you have it.