Stanford Now Statistically Projected To Beat California in Swimming Points By Slim Margin

Photo Courtesy: Reagan Lunn/Georgia Tech Athletics

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Following first day of prelims at the 2016 NCAA Division I Women’s Championships, University of Arizona economist Price Fishback is back with his updated projections taking into account what has transpired already.

Barring disqualifications, Stanford is now projected to beat California by just one point in swimming points with Georgia taking a close third place overall.

As always, these projections are based on psych sheet scoring mixed with actual results, so plenty of changes can happen.  But, this gives everyone a good look at the lay of the land heading into tonight.

2016 NCAA Division I Women's Championships Projections After Day 2 Prelims

Final PredictionTEAMFinal Score WedThur Prelim SwimThu Psych SwimPrelim minus PsychFri Psych SwimSat Psych SwimNew Predicted FinalPsych Predicted Final
1Stanford2699103-4135114374374
2California32100125-25132109373398
3Georgia4012275477991332279
4Virginia3089113-248389291313
5Southern California34817476684265264
6Texas A&M287289-179366259262
7Louisville248184-38942236227
8Indiana224546-17155193190
9Tennessee06655116338167158
10NC State105376-232765155192
11Michigan12424201768139157
12Texas144050-103531120142
13Arizona18584216151410581
14Ohio State051456222710094
15Missouri032102239148563
16North Carolina8818-1029257072
17Florida2413-92445267
18Purdue043118184039
19Virginia Tech040410102420
20UCLA0651782120
21Wisconsin01569041910
22Kentucky40001131814
23UMBC00000171717
24Alabama02021221614
25Air Force070709169
26Cincinnati00001201212
27Penn State600015126
28LSU00000111115
29Iowa00009099
30Boise State008-806620
31SMU00006066
32Denver03030363
33Auburn002-25057
34Minnesota01101244
35Eastern Michigan00003033
36FGCU00003033
37OregonState00000111
2 Comments

2 comments

  1. avatar
    Careful Observer

    It ought to be noted that this forecast completely ignores the impact of an additional 465 points awarded in the 3 diving events, which will likely be significant in determining the outcome when the scores are this closely packed

  2. avatar
    Dunc1952

    “Barring disqualifications …”?

Author: Jason Marsteller

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Jason Marsteller is the general manager of digital properties at Swimming World. He joined Swimming World in June 2006 as the managing editor after previous stints as a media relations professional at Indiana University, the University of Tennessee, Southern Utah University and the Utah Summer Games.

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