Stanford Now Statistically Projected To Beat California in Swimming Points By Slim Margin

2016.03.16 2016 Womens NCAA Swimming Championships_800FR-Stanford

Photo Courtesy: Reagan Lunn/Georgia Tech Athletics

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Following first day of prelims at the 2016 NCAA Division I Women’s Championships, University of Arizona economist Price Fishback is back with his updated projections taking into account what has transpired already.

Barring disqualifications, Stanford is now projected to beat California by just one point in swimming points with Georgia taking a close third place overall.

As always, these projections are based on psych sheet scoring mixed with actual results, so plenty of changes can happen. But, this gives everyone a good look at the lay of the land heading into tonight.

2016 NCAA Division I Women's Championships Projections After Day 2 Prelims

Final Prediction	TEAM	Final Score Wed	Thur Prelim Swim	Thu Psych Swim	Prelim minus Psych	Fri Psych Swim	Sat Psych Swim	New Predicted Final	Psych Predicted Final
1	Stanford	26	99	103	-4	135	114	374	374
2	California	32	100	125	-25	132	109	373	398
3	Georgia	40	122	75	47	79	91	332	279
4	Virginia	30	89	113	-24	83	89	291	313
5	Southern California	34	81	74	7	66	84	265	264
6	Texas A&M	28	72	89	-17	93	66	259	262
7	Louisville	24	81	84	-3	89	42	236	227
8	Indiana	22	45	46	-1	71	55	193	190
9	Tennessee	0	66	55	11	63	38	167	158
10	NC State	10	53	76	-23	27	65	155	192
11	Michigan	12	42	42	0	17	68	139	157
12	Texas	14	40	50	-10	35	31	120	142
13	Arizona	18	58	42	16	15	14	105	81
14	Ohio State	0	51	45	6	22	27	100	94
15	Missouri	0	32	10	22	39	14	85	63
16	North Carolina	8	8	18	-10	29	25	70	72
17	Florida	2	4	13	-9	2	44	52	67
18	Purdue	0	4	3	1	18	18	40	39
19	Virginia Tech	0	4	0	4	10	10	24	20
20	UCLA	0	6	5	1	7	8	21	20
21	Wisconsin	0	15	6	9	0	4	19	10
22	Kentucky	4	0	0	0	1	13	18	14
23	UMBC	0	0	0	0	0	17	17	17
24	Alabama	0	2	0	2	12	2	16	14
25	Air Force	0	7	0	7	0	9	16	9
26	Cincinnati	0	0	0	0	12	0	12	12
27	Penn State	6	0	0	0	1	5	12	6
28	LSU	0	0	0	0	0	11	11	15
29	Iowa	0	0	0	0	9	0	9	9
30	Boise State	0	0	8	-8	0	6	6	20
31	SMU	0	0	0	0	6	0	6	6
32	Denver	0	3	0	3	0	3	6	3
33	Auburn	0	0	2	-2	5	0	5	7
34	Minnesota	0	1	1	0	1	2	4	4
35	Eastern Michigan	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	3
36	FGCU	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	3
37	OregonState	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1

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Careful Observer

8 years ago

It ought to be noted that this forecast completely ignores the impact of an additional 465 points awarded in the 3 diving events, which will likely be significant in determining the outcome when the scores are this closely packed

Dunc1952

8 years ago

“Barring disqualifications …”?