California Early Favorite to Win 2016 NCAA Division I Women’s Championships

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Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

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USA Swimming’s Stats Department has been hard at work parsing the numbers for both the men’s and women’s NCAA Division I Championships.

According to some great information produced by USA Swimming, California looks to be the early favorite when scoring out the psych sheet.

California is slated to have a close meet into the fourth day before pulling away from Virginia and Stanford down the stretch.  Stanford is also projected to move ahead of Virginia by the end of the meet with Georgia and Southern California rounding out the top five.

Of course, these are all based on the psych sheet.  Lots of movement against seeds will happen at the 2016 NCAA Division I Women’s Championships, but this is some impressive statistical work.

2016-womens-ncaa-projections

Photo Courtesy: USA Swimming Stats

 

Full Points Projection

IND PTS   REL PTS TOT PTS
1 California 234 63.2% 136 36.8% 370
2 Stanford 202 60.3% 133 39.7% 335
3 Virginia 169 52.6% 152 47.4% 321
4 Georgia 177 64.4% 98 35.6% 275
5 Southern Cali 124 50.8% 120 49.2% 244
6 Texas A&M 181.5 74.5% 62 25.5% 243.5
7 NC State 77.5 36.5% 135 63.5% 212.5
8 Indiana 118 60.2% 78 39.8% 196
9 Louisville 117 60.0% 78 40.0% 195
10 Michigan 100.5 65.0% 54 35.0% 154.5
11 Tennessee 60 41.1% 86 58.9% 146
12 Texas 64 48.5% 68 51.5% 132
13 Ohio St 72 70.6% 30 29.4% 102
14 Missouri 41 46.1% 48 53.9% 89
15 Arizona 13 16.5% 66 83.5% 79
16 UNC 24 31.6% 52 68.4% 76
17 Florida 46 62.2% 28 37.8% 74
18 Purdue 39 100.0% 0 0.0% 39
19 UCLA 20 62.5% 12 37.5% 32
20 Auburn 1 3.2% 30 96.8% 31
21 Alabama 12 54.5% 10 45.5% 22
21 Boise St 0 0.0% 22 100.0% 22
23 LSU 11 52.4% 10 47.6% 21
24 Virginia Tech 20.5 100.0% 0 0.0% 20.5
25 Kentucky 14 70.0% 6 30.0% 20
26 Florida Gulf 3 17.6% 14 82.4% 17
26 UMBC (W) 17 100.0% 0 0.0% 17
28 Minnesota 4 28.6% 10 71.4% 14
28 Wisconsin 6 42.9% 8 57.1% 14
30 Cincinnati 12 100.0% 0 0.0% 12
31 Air Force (W) 9 100.0% 0 0.0% 9
31 Iowa 9 100.0% 0 0.0% 9
33 Penn St 4 50.0% 4 50.0% 8
34 SMU 6 100.0% 0 0.0% 6
35 Denver 3 100.0% 0 0.0% 3
36 Eastern Mich 2 100.0% 0 0.0% 2
37 Oregon St 1 100.0% 0 0.0% 1

Points By Class For Projected Top 10

IND EVENTS FR   SO   JR   SR   Total
1 California PTS 82 35.0% 27 11.5% 61 26.1% 64 27.4% 234
  California IND 2 25.0% 1 12.5% 2 25.0% 3 37.5% 8
2 Stanford PTS 57 28.2% 66 32.7% 53 26.2% 26 12.9% 202
  Stanford IND 1 16.7% 3 50.0% 1 16.7% 1 16.7% 6
3 Virginia PTS 1 0.6% 0 0.0% 113 66.9% 55 32.5% 169
  Virginia IND 1 16.7% 0 0.0% 3 50.0% 2 33.3% 6
4 Georgia PTS 0 0.0% 28.5 16.1% 56.5 31.9% 92 52.0% 177
  Georgia IND 0 0.0% 3 42.9% 2 28.6% 2 28.6% 7
5 Southern Cali PTS 71 57.3% 0 0.0% 40 32.3% 13 10.5% 124
  Southern Cali IND 4 57.1% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 1 14.3% 7
6 Texas A&M PTS 24 13.2% 118.5 65.3% 39 21.5% 0 0.0% 181.5
  Texas A&M IND 1 14.3% 5 71.4% 1 14.3% 0 0.0% 7
7 NC State PTS 0 0.0% 31 40.0% 35.5 45.8% 11 14.2% 77.5
  NC State IND 0 0.0% 1 25.0% 2 50.0% 1 25.0% 4
8 Indiana PTS 75 63.6% 5 4.2% 7 5.9% 31 26.3% 118
  Indiana IND 2 40.0% 1 20.0% 1 20.0% 1 20.0% 5
9 Louisville PTS 32 27.4% 2 1.7% 28 23.9% 55 47.0% 117
  Louisville IND 2 40.0% 1 20.0% 1 20.0% 1 20.0% 5
10 Michigan PTS 67.5 67.2% 24 23.9% 0 0.0% 9 9.0% 100.5
  Michigan IND 2 40.0% 2 40.0% 0 0.0% 1 20.0% 5

Additionally, here’s a look at what it took to get invited to NCAAs in the past nine years.

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Careful Observer
Careful Observer
8 years ago

I suggest that you recheck your numbers – individual points shown check out fine but something is goofed up with the relay scoring.

This is what I get for relays for top 7:
173 Stanford
164 Cal
144 UVA
140 USC
115 NC St
110 L’ville
102 UGA

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