2017 Men’s NCAA Freestyle Predictions

2016.03.26 NCAA Mens Swimming Championships_Reagan_Texas Team 3
Photo Courtesy: Reagan Lunn/Georgia Tech Athletics

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By Robbie Dickson, Swimming World College Intern

The question people in the sport of swimming ask after the Olympics are over typically is, “Will there be a post-Olympic depression?” The 2016-2017 NCAA season should have buried all these speculations by now. A majority of the conference meets that have taken place are much faster than last year. It appears as if the U.S. and foreign Olympians have returned and adjusted smoothly into their collegiate seasons.

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Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

50 Freestyle

NCAA Defending Champion: Caeleb Dressel (18.20)
2017 Prediction: Caeleb Dressel (18.05)

Everyone was blown away by Dressel’s sub-18-second relay split at SECs a couple weeks ago especially because the 2016 US Olympian was not shaved or fully tapered. He was 18.46 in the individual race at SECs and is poised to repeat as champion. I predict that the 18 second barrier will remain unbroken in a flat start race this year, but would not be surprised by anything Mr. Dressel accomplishes. Other stars to watch out for are NC State’s Ryan Held, who split 18.15 on the medley relay a couple nights ago at ACCs, as well as Texas Olympian Joe Schooling, who threw down a massive 18.76 at Big 12s last week.

100 Freestyle

NCAA Defending Champion: Caeleb Dressel (40.46)
2017 Prediction: Caeleb Dressel (40.13)

This race will end up being much closer than a lot of people will expect, with the possibility of multiple superstars dipping under the 41 barrier. Dressel had multiple 40-second split on relays at SECs and has the top time of the year thus far at a 41.24, but there are a few athletes not too far behind. Possible threats to the title are Indiana’s Olympian Blake Pieroni, who dropped a 41.44 at Big Tens while sporting a beard, Penn State’s Olympian Shane Ryan, who was the other man under the 42 barrier at Big Tens (41.86). Both of these athletes were not fully tapered for Big Tens and could give Dressel a run for his money if they nail their NCAA tapers. NC State’s Ryan Held also will be in the mix after he puts up an impressive time at ACCs. The dark-horse in this race isMissouri’s Michael Chadwick who has already been 41.80 at midseason and had a very impressive Short Course Worlds in December.

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Photo Courtesy: Andy Ringgold / Aringo Photos

200 Freestyle

NCAA Defending Champion: Townley Haas ( 1:30.46)
2017 Prediction: Townley Haas (1:29.97)

I’m making my first major barrier breaker in this race. While Haas has ONLY been a 1:32.17, and not even the fastest in the NCAA this year, it is well known that the Texas Longhorns have been putting in a lot of work, especially in the weight-room. Eddie Reese will have his boys ready to go in a month to post some eye-popping times. The biggest surprise in this particular event has been Harvard’s freshman Dean Farris, who posted TWO 1:31 flat starts with the fastest being a 1:31.56. Depending on how much Farris has left in the tank, he could give Haas the push to get under the 1:30 barrier. The other contenders for the title are Indiana’s Pieroni and Florida Gator freshmen stand-out Maxime Rooney.

500 Freestyle

NCAA Defending Champion: Townley Haas (4:09.00)
2017 Prediction: Clark Smith (4:07.99)

This is going to be one of the most open and exciting events at NCAAs. There are currently ten swimmers that have swam under 4:13, with six of them being 4:12s. The safe pick is Texas Olympian, Clark Smith. Smith is known for not always doing the best under pressure, but I believe that with Olympic experience under his belt, he will bounce back from last years’ NCAAs and win the 500 breaking all the existing records. Their are five or six other swimmers that could step up if Smith doesn’t get the job done in prelims. Townley Haas won this event last year and certainly will challenge his teammate throughout the whole race. Florida’s Mitch D’Arrigo finished behind Haas last year with a 4:09.98, and will be looking to finish out his collegiate career with an individual title. Michigan’s freshmen, Felix Auboeck won the Big Ten title with a 4:10.63 and would love to end up atop the podium. The other dark-horses are South Carolina’s Fynn Minuth, Wisconsin’s Matt Hutchins and Stanford’s Grant Shoults.

 

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Photo Courtesy: Matt Rubel of Rubel Photography

1650 Freestyle

NCAA Defending Champion: Chris Swanson (14:31.54)
2017 Prediction: True Sweetser (14:23.98)

In one of the most epic races from last years NCAAs, Penn’s Chris Swanson pulled off an insane comeback over the last 50 to just touch bout South Carolina’s Akaram Mahmoud. Now with Swanson gone, the NCAA title is up for grabs. True Sweetser has the fourth-fastest time in the NCAA right now from the Texas Invitational, and had a great showing at short course world championships. Look for him to burst onto the scene in Indy after having almost a full year of training under Coach Jeff Kostoff. This race is really wide open, and any athlete could take the crown. Clark Smith beat Sweetser at the Texas Invitational and if he’s on his game, will be very hard to stop. Northwestern’s Jordan Wilimovsky is returning from Rio and his redshirt season. He could definitey use his endurance to his advantage to steal the show. The Michigan Wolverines are also likely to put two men in the top eight, watch out for Felix Auboeck and PJ Ransford to also be in the mix.

Feel free to leave your picks and comments below!

All commentaries are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Swimming World Magazine nor its staff.

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The Real John Hargis
The Real John Hargis
7 years ago

He’s no Nate Savoy, but nevertheless it pleases me that Shane Ryan is doing well. He success’s must be due to the Penn State patented chocolate milk recovery method ;). There is no other way that he could of competed with the likes of other Rio Olympians untapered. Frankly unfathomable. As his former coach, I can only pray that he has the diligence to keep absorbing chocolate milk in only manner acceptable for Penn Staters.

The Real Tim Murphy
The Real Tim Murphy
7 years ago

I can testify to the level that Shane has been recovering too. Huh. May not be optimal but due to the trademarked Penn State Dr.Petes recovery method I can attest that he will be ready to compete with the small fries of the NCAA.

The Real Ned Thurman
The Real Ned Thurman
7 years ago

Just imagine what Shane could have accomplished under my unique coaching style. Just look where I took East Tollusa State University in a few short years….. Nuff said.

Bill Bell
7 years ago

Coach Hargis is correct. With all due respect to Nate Savoy Shane Ryan is
light years better to the former Nittany Lion standout, as his Big Ten/Championships record 44.65 100 back attest — not to mention his 41.86 100 free (second- fastest in conference history).
I don’t think he can take down Dressel , Held or the treble- defending 100 back NCAA champ in a fee weeks but who wudda thunk a certain ” Texan” would beat the treble- defending champ/world record-holder in some obscure competition in a tiny South American country last summer.
Now what was that guy’s name again and just who did he beat? Can’t remember for the life of me!

.

Swim Mom Coach
Swim Mom Coach
7 years ago

I’m pretty sure that Dean Farris is just getting started! He’s going to be fun to watch for a good long while!

Travis Morrin
7 years ago

No love for Akram Mahmoud who is also returning?

The Real Doak Finch
The Real Doak Finch
7 years ago

Look– I am glad that Shane has finally reached the level in which Swimming World Interns are mentioning his name. It seems like he has finally taken the words of warrior prophet, Gucci Mane, to heart “If a man does not have the sauce, then he is lost. But the same man can be lost in the lost”. In my humble opinion the patented Penn State Chocolate Milk Recovery Method™ is not beneficial to fast swimming. We all know that there is only one true God of workout beverages…and that is the dew.

Gowdy Raines
Gowdy Raines
7 years ago

Rumor has it Penn State’s Shane Ryan has been charging his energy crystals with illegal “Eboost” chargers. Don’t know if this has anything to do with his success but I think it could contribute

Swaggy Erik Posegay
Swaggy Erik Posegay
7 years ago
Reply to  Gowdy Raines

@Gowdy

I can personally attest to the fact that no one on my term is using potentially illegal “Eboost Chargers”. As a matter of fact I believe the team has found a more efficient method to charge their crystals naturally before competitions.

Frank A Wilson
7 years ago

I think this article will have to revised after the upsets Bob Boman coached freshman Cameron Craig did at the PAC 12 Championships!

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