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By Michael Randazzo, Swimming World Contributor
It seems like only months ago that the Serbs captured Olympic gold in Rio’s Maria Lenk Aquatic Center’s pool. Current holders of all of major men’s water polo titles—including the European Championship, World Cup, World League and Olympic Games—Serbia now looks to start a new cycle of championship wins. Starting July 17 in Budapest’s Alfréd Hajós National Swimming Stadium, the reigning FINA Worlds champs will look to beat out the world’s top 15 teams, including host Hungary, and continue their dominance of international polo.
Because of FINA’s playoff format, only the bottom four teams are eliminated after group play; that unfortunate quartet is likely to include Canada, France, Japan and South Africa. The four group winners advance directly to the quarterfinals; on July 23 the eight second and third place teams will play each other for the other four quarterfinal slots.
The quarterfinals are July 25; the semifinals July 27 and the finals July 29.
Group A: Brazil, Montenegro, Kazakhstan, Canada
Group B: France, Australia, Italy, Hungary
Group C: Spain, Serbia, Greece, South Africa
Group D: USA, Japan, Croatia, Russia
The Serbs are overwhelming favorites to win again, with Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro and Russia trailing in their wake. The U.S will be hard pressed to advance to the quarterfinals and repeat a seventh-place finish in 2015.
Group play begins on Monday, July 17 with eight matches. Top contests include: Spain versus Greece and Croatia against the U.S. The Greeks had a noteworthy run in the 2015 FINA World Championships, losing in the semifinals to Croatia. Spain, perennially among the world’s best, will look to topple the Greeks and help ensure an advance to the quarterfinals with Serbia.
Tony Azevedo’s last match for Team USA. Photo Courtesy: Jeff Cable
The U.S. team knows Croatia well, having played a four-match series against them in California—including American water polo legend Tony Azevedo’s last-ever professional appearance—then dropping a 10-4 decision to the Croats last week in the FINA World Super League Final 2017 bronze-medal game. Like Greece vs. Spain, this first-day pairing will set the tone for the group, as Russia will likely vie with Croatia and the U.S. for the two Group D spots.
Day Two on July 19 will see Italy vs Hungry, Russia against Croatia and Spain facing Serbia. The host Hungarians should win Group B, and a win over Italy will likely seal their chances. Russia, which did not qualify for the Rio Olympics, would like nothing more than to take down the Croats, silver medalists in 2016.
Serbia’s current success is beginning to resemble Hungary’s dominance last decade, when it won three straight Olympic golds (2000, 2014, 2008). Beating Spain, an Olympic qualifier in 2016, will help ensure that the tournament favorite has a clear path to the next round.
Day Three is July 21 and features U.S. versus Russia and Australia against Italy. Team USA will likely need a win or draw for a favorable draw in the playoff round. Despite losing Olympic veterans Azevedo and John Mann to retirement, and missing Merrill Moses and Jessie Smith as well as Josh Samuels, who is out for the year with injuries, the Americans beat the host Russians 8-6 at the World League Super Final.
If the U.S. does advance, it will be because returning players McQuin Baron, Alex Bowen Thomas Dunstan, Ben Hallock and Alex Olbert mesh well with new additions Luca Cupido, Matt DeTrane, Johnny Hooper, Max Irving and Nolan McConnell. Hooper—just 20 years old—is noteworthy because he may also compete for the U.S. Junior National Team at the Junior World Championship in Belgrade in August.
Australia—at the same level as the U.S.—has a good shot at getting past an aging Italian squad and into the quarterfinals.
Likely to advance: Group A: Montenegro, Kazakhstan; Group B: Australia, Hungary; Group C: Serbia, Greece; Group D: Croatia, USA
All commentaries are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Swimming World Magazine nor its staff.
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