Stanford Now Statistically Projected To Beat California in Swimming Points By Slim Margin
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Following first day of prelims at the 2016 NCAA Division I Women’s Championships, University of Arizona economist Price Fishback is back with his updated projections taking into account what has transpired already.
Barring disqualifications, Stanford is now projected to beat California by just one point in swimming points with Georgia taking a close third place overall.
As always, these projections are based on psych sheet scoring mixed with actual results, so plenty of changes can happen. But, this gives everyone a good look at the lay of the land heading into tonight.
2016 NCAA Division I Women's Championships Projections After Day 2 Prelims
Final Prediction | TEAM | Final Score Wed | Thur Prelim Swim | Thu Psych Swim | Prelim minus Psych | Fri Psych Swim | Sat Psych Swim | New Predicted Final | Psych Predicted Final |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Stanford | 26 | 99 | 103 | -4 | 135 | 114 | 374 | 374 |
2 | California | 32 | 100 | 125 | -25 | 132 | 109 | 373 | 398 |
3 | Georgia | 40 | 122 | 75 | 47 | 79 | 91 | 332 | 279 |
4 | Virginia | 30 | 89 | 113 | -24 | 83 | 89 | 291 | 313 |
5 | Southern California | 34 | 81 | 74 | 7 | 66 | 84 | 265 | 264 |
6 | Texas A&M | 28 | 72 | 89 | -17 | 93 | 66 | 259 | 262 |
7 | Louisville | 24 | 81 | 84 | -3 | 89 | 42 | 236 | 227 |
8 | Indiana | 22 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 71 | 55 | 193 | 190 |
9 | Tennessee | 0 | 66 | 55 | 11 | 63 | 38 | 167 | 158 |
10 | NC State | 10 | 53 | 76 | -23 | 27 | 65 | 155 | 192 |
11 | Michigan | 12 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 139 | 157 |
12 | Texas | 14 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 35 | 31 | 120 | 142 |
13 | Arizona | 18 | 58 | 42 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 105 | 81 |
14 | Ohio State | 0 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 22 | 27 | 100 | 94 |
15 | Missouri | 0 | 32 | 10 | 22 | 39 | 14 | 85 | 63 |
16 | North Carolina | 8 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 72 |
17 | Florida | 2 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2 | 44 | 52 | 67 |
18 | Purdue | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 40 | 39 |
19 | Virginia Tech | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 20 |
20 | UCLA | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 20 |
21 | Wisconsin | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 10 |
22 | Kentucky | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 14 |
23 | UMBC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
24 | Alabama | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 16 | 14 |
25 | Air Force | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 9 |
26 | Cincinnati | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
27 | Penn State | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 6 |
28 | LSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 15 |
29 | Iowa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
30 | Boise State | 0 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
31 | SMU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
32 | Denver | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
33 | Auburn | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
34 | Minnesota | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
35 | Eastern Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
36 | FGCU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
37 | OregonState | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
It ought to be noted that this forecast completely ignores the impact of an additional 465 points awarded in the 3 diving events, which will likely be significant in determining the outcome when the scores are this closely packed
“Barring disqualifications …”?