NCAA Women’s Championships Preview: A Familiar Favorite For National Title (Team Predictions)

Returning University of Virginia swimmers Ella Nelson, Reilly Tiltmann, Aimee Canny and Alex Walsh -- Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

NCAA Women’s Championships Preview: A Familiar Favorite For National Title

University of Virginia head coach Todd DeSorbo has created a budding dynasty in Charlottesville as the Cavaliers aim for a fourth consecutive crown.

A swimmer who won titles in all 14 of her events over the past two seasons—six individual and eight relay titles—has finished her college career. Normally, a team would take a huge step back after the departure of Kate Douglass, but the University of Virginia has enough returning pieces to once again be favored for a national crown at this year’s women’s NCAAs, March 20-23, in Athens, Ga.

Coach Todd DeSorbo’s Cavaliers have won three straight titles, all with comfortable margins of victory (137 points in 2021, 145.5 in 2022 and 127 a season ago). But the University of Texas women could make this year’s meet the closest of any during Virginia’s run of dominance. The Longhorns, led by head coach Carol Capitani, have placed second each of the last two years, with the 2022 runner-up finish the highest by a Texas women’s team since 1994.

Here’s a look at Swimming World’s top-10:

1. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS

Last Year: 1st (541.5 points)

Coach: Todd DeSorbo

Virginia’s Gretchen Walsh — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Kate Douglass is gone, and so is Lexi Cuomo, a frequent contributor to the Cavaliers NCAA-title-winning relays. But Virginia still has two superstars on the roster, with sisters Alex Walsh and Gretchen Walsh favored to win three individual NCAA titles apiece this season. Alex has won two titles in both individual medley events in her career, and with Douglass gone, she could move into the 200 breaststroke as the favorite. Gretchen, meanwhile, has been on a historic hot streak during the dual-meet season, and she could swim the fastest times ever in both sprint freestyles, the 100 butterfly and 100 backstroke.

Virginia’s sprint core means that the Cavaliers remain title favorites in all four 200- and 400-yard relays, thanks to returnees such as Maxine Parker and Aimee Canny plus newcomer Jasmine Nocentini, a transfer from Northwestern with elite sprint freestyle and breaststroke skills. Virginia also has Ella Nelson, a three-time A-finalist last year, returning for a fifth season of eligibility. Emma Weber, Anna Keating, Reilly Tiltmann and Abby Harter are all returning individual scorers on the national level, while first-year swimmers Tess Howley (butterfly) and Cavan Gormsen (freestyle) are likely to join their teammates as top-16 performers.

With that much firepower, it would be a stunner if Virginia does not emerge with another title.

2. TEXAS LONGHORNS

Last Year: 2nd (414.5 points)

Coach: Carol Capitani

Texas’ Lydia Jacoby — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

A deep, balanced attack helped Texas reach No. 2 status in the country in 2022, but last season, two Longhorn swimmers won national titles: Lydia Jacoby took the win in the 100 breaststroke, while Emma Sticklen used a phenomenal late surge to pick off Alex Walsh and secure the 200 butterfly title.

Both of those swimmers return this season, and they will not be alone. Texas had 13 individual A-final swims at last season’s NCAA Championships plus three B-final swims. In diving, the Longhorns went two up and three down. The only Texas scoring losses from last season were Dakota Luther, who placed fifth in the 200 fly, plus relay swimmer Kyla Leibel.

Jacoby (1st-100) and Anna Elendt (3rd-100, 2nd-200) provide the best 1-2 breaststroke duo in the country, while the versatile Olivia Bray scored in three A-finals last year. Fifth-year swimmer Kelly Pash is a central relay figure likely to score in three individual events again. Erica Sullivan, the Olympic silver medalist in the 1500 meter free from Tokyo, will be swimming in her final NCAA Championships with significant scoring potential in both distance races. The diving contingent includes Hailey Hernandez, Bridget O’Neil, Jordan Skilken and Sarah Carruthers. Finally, Texas should get a significant boost from Erin Gemmell, who swam for Team USA in the 800 meter free relay at last year’s World Championships.

3. FLORIDA GATORS

Last Year: 9th (179 points)

Coach: Anthony Nesty

Florida’s Bella Sims — Photo Courtesy: Redmond Smith/Auburn Tigers

Florida is poised to rocket up in the standings this year, largely thanks to a pair of high-profile additions. Isabel Ivey joins the Gators this season after a prolific career at Cal, which concluded when she finished second in the 200 free and third in the 200 IM at the 2022 NCAA Championships. Also joining the team is Olympic medalist Bella Sims, who arrived in Gainesville already ranking among the top-10 performers in history in five different NCAA events. She could win NCAA titles in the 500 free, 200 free and 200 back as a freshman.

Both swimmers have versatility and will contribute heavily to Florida’s relays. Meanwhile, Florida returns an elite 400 IM group led by Emma Weyant, Mabel Zavaros and Zoe Dixon, all scorers in the event on the national level last season, while Olivia Peoples, Ekaterina Nikonova and Aria Runnels were all individual consolation finalists in 2023. Micayla Cronk provides relay strength, and freshmen Catie Choate (backstroke) and Molly Mayne (breaststroke) have looked strong in the early going. Another freshman, Michaela Mattes, joins the team after winning gold in the 1500 meter free at the Junior Pan Pacific Championships in 2022.

4. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Last Year: 4th (288 points)

Coach: Arthur Albiero

Louisville’s Gabi Albiero — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

The Cardinals have not captured an individual national championship since Mallory Comerford finished her collegiate eligibility in 2019, but Arthur Albiero & Co. have taken the momentum from Comerford—and Kelsi Dahlia before her—to build sustained success. Now, the Cardinals have the most sprint depth in the country outside of Virginia. The 200 and 400 freestyle relays placed third last year, while the 200 medley relay was fifth—and every single Louisville swimmer who scored at the national level, individually and in relays, is back this year!

The sprint group is led by Gabi Albiero, the head coach’s daughter. Albiero, now a senior, took third in the 50 free, fourth in the 100 free and fifth (tied) in the 100 fly last season. Additionally, Abby Hay is back for a fifth season at Louisville after she was an A-finalist in the 200 IM and 200 butterfly last year, and fellow super senior Christiana Regenauer combines with Albiero as a fierce 1-2 punch in the sprint events. Paige Hetrick was also an NCAA A-finalist last year (in the 200 free), while Julia Dennis, Ella Welch and Cecilia Viberg are all returning relay contributors.

Louisville matched its highest finish in program history last year and could match or even exceed that in 2024.

5. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

Last Year: 6th (223 points)

Coach: Bill Dorenkott

The Buckeyes are another team that will rely on experience, including a slate of fifth-year swimmers, as they continue their climb in the national rankings. At last season’s NCAA Championships, Ohio State placed fourth, fourth, fifth and sixth in the sprint relays, and every swimmer off those squads returns. The headliners include Teresa Ivan, the fourth-place finisher in the 50 free last year, as well as 100 free and 100 fly A-finalist Katherine Zenick. Amy Fulmer is the third key piece of the sprint corps as she swims a fifth season in Columbus.

Breaststrokers Hannah Bach and Josie Panitz, A-finalists in the 100-yard event at last season’s NCAAs, are both swimming fifth-years as well, and we expect relay pieces such as Catherine Russo and Nyah Funderburke once again to fill big roles. The Buckeyes might also get some diving points, with Lena Hentschel having qualified for two B-finals in 2023.

6. NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK

Last Year: 5th (263 points)

Coach: Braden Holloway

NC State’s Katharine Berkoff — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

NC State is a wildcard team this year, with sprinter Kylee Alons departing after five productive seasons and breaststrokers Heather MacCausland and Andrea Podmanikova both gone after NCAA champion Sophie Hansson left after 2022. But this team has a few swimmers who should score big points, with fifth-year Katharine Berkoff back on the college scene after earning bronze in the 100 meter back at the 2023 World Championships. Berkoff was the NCAA titlist in the yards version of the event in 2021 and 2022 and the runner-up last year, while also placing fifth in both sprint freestyle events.

Berkoff will be joined by versatile junior Abby Arens, a B-finalist in three events last year and a relay centerpiece, as well as Kennedy Noble, who qualified for a pair of backstroke A-finals at both last year’s NCAAs and the summer’s U.S. nationals. Noble went on to win three individual medals, one of each color, at the Pan American Games in October. IMer Grace Sheble and freestyler Abbey Webb both produced individual scoring swims last season, and a repeat of those results will be key in returning to the top-five.

7. INDIANA HOOSIERS

Last Year: 7th (219 points)

Coach: Ray Looze

Indiana’s Anna Peplowski — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Quality swimmers put Indiana in the mix for the top-10 every year, and the divers under Coach Drew Johansen always deliver. Last year, Anne Fowler was the runner-up on the 3-meter board, while Skyler Liu took fourth on the platform and also earning consolation-final points on 3-meter. Tennessee actually scored 30 more swimming points than Indiana, but the Hoosiers’ diving advantage helped them edge out the Lady Vols for fifth place.

Meanwhile, Indiana has a strong group of swimmers projected for significant points, even with the departures of fifth-years Noelle Peplowski and Mackenzie Looze. Anna Peplowski returns after earning a spot on the U.S. women’s 800 meter free relay at last year’s World Championships. Peplowski was a 200 free A-finalist and 200 back B-finalist last season. Ching Hwee Gan made an immediate impact on the college level, placing second in the 1650 free and seventh in the 500 free, and she will be joined by Mariah Denigan, who has already qualified for the U.S. Olympic team in open water. Returning sprint freestylers Ashley Turak and Kristina Paegle were both individual scorers and key relay participants last season.

8. STANFORD CARDINAL

Last Year: 3rd (333 points)

Coach: Greg Meehan

After earning 10 individual A-final swims last year, the swimmers responsible for seven of those are not currently with the Cardinal program, with Torri Huske redshirting, Claire Curzan transferring and Taylor Ruck out of eligibility. But this year’s group could make things interesting in 2024 while setting the stage for Huske’s return next year. Stanford has three returning A-finalists, with Lucy Bell in the 400 IM, Kayla Wilson in the 200 free and Charlotte Hook in the 200 fly all making the top-eight as freshmen in 2023. Each will be in position to take on a larger role now.

Natalie Mannion, Samantha Tadder and Lillie Nordmann were all individual consolation finalists last year, and freshmen Caroline Bricker and Lucy Thomas could contribute immediately: Bricker ranked among the best in the country in the 400 IM and 200 breast, and Thomas is the best sprint breaststroker to join the Stanford team in years. Meanwhile, junior Aurora Roghair has taken a huge step forward this season. She has never finished higher than 15th at NCAAs, but Roghair could be a three-event top-eight swimmer this year in the 200, 500 and 1650 freestyle.

9. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

Last Year: 11th (137 points)

Coach: Dave Durden

Cal’s Isabelle Stadden — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Cal is still a couple years away from rejoining the national-title race, but look for the Golden Bears to make the jump back into the top-10 this time around after falling to 11th amid a coaching shakeup last year. But now, with accomplished men’s coach Dave Durden running both programs and former Olympic coach David Marsh on staff, the Golden Bears have momentum pointing upward.

They also have Isabelle Stadden on the roster, with the senior having been a consistent presence in national-level backstroke finals for years. She took third in the 200 back and sixth in the 100 back last season. The Bears also return 2023 multi-event consolation finalists Mia Motekaitis and Leah Polonsky, with butterflyers Mia Kragh and Rachel Klinker also in the mix and McKenna Stone likely to play a major relay role.

10. USC TROJANS

Last Year: 12th (125 points)

Coach: Lea Maurer

In a usually tight battle at the back end of the top-10, perhaps the Trojans can come through this year after a massively successful regular season when they beat both Stanford and Cal in dual meets for the first time in 28 years! USC is led by Kaitlyn Dobler, the 2022 NCAA champion in the 100 breast and one of the country’s best in that stroke, while Hungarian freshman Minna Abraham looks like a star in the freestyle events and on the anchor leg of some Trojan relays.

Fellow sprinter Vasilissa Buinaia and backstroker Caroline Famous have been making an impact all season, while sophomore Justina Kozan looks to contribute in the IMs and 200 fly as she bounces back from a rough freshman season. Expect some impact diving points as well, with Nike Agunbiade back after placing fifth on platform and 13th on 3-meter last season.

OTHERS TO WATCH

TENNESSEE (last year: 8th, 214 points; Coach Matt Kredich) made a really strong case for a top-10 position, with 2023 top-eight swimmers Brooklynn Douthwright, Josephine Fuller, Mona McSharry and Aly Breslin all poised to make an impact again this season and freshman Camille Spink looking like a significant pickup. Getting all relays into the top-eight would drastically improve the Lady Vols’ cause.

Speaking of the SEC, GEORGIA (16th/90.5; Coach Stefanie Williams Moreno) will have Zoie Hartman back for a fifth year plus sprinter Eboni McCarty and the steady distance group consisting of Rachel Stege, Abby McCulloh and Dune Coetzee. WISCONSIN (15th/100; Coach Yuri Suguiyama), led by the duo of Phoebe Bacon and Mack McConagha plus distance swimmers Paige McKenna and Abby Carlson, could make things interesting, while NORTH CAROLINA (10th/152; Coach Mark Gangloff) will try to return to the top-10 with Aranza Vazquez Montaño returning to defend titles in both springboard diving events.

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