Column by John Lohn
SANTA BARBARA, California, August 9. THE buzz of the swimming world over the weekend revolved around what went down on the fourth night of action at the United States Nationals in Irvine. In case you missed it, Ryan Lochte finally upstaged Michael Phelps in a major event, claiming a comfortable victory in the 200 individual medley.
Posting the fastest time ever recorded in a textile suit, Lochte clocked a performance of 1:54.84, not far off the world record he established last summer while wearing a techsuit at the World Championships in Rome. Phelps, meanwhile, touched the wall in 1:55.94, clearly still building toward the shape he'll need for next year's World Champs in Shanghai and the 2012 Olympic Games in London.
Going forward, Lochte's triumph does a few things for the sport. First and foremost, it sets the stage for some highly anticipated duels between the friendly rivals through the London Games. The 200 medley has long been the event in which Lochte was suspected of being able to get the best of the greatest swimmer in history, and we now have the proof that it can be done.
That brings us to the second aspect of what Lochte's win brings to the table. Over the years, especially the past few, Lochte has repeatedly stated a belief he could defeat Phelps. But until that scenario actually unfolded, doesn't it make sense that there was some lingering doubt? Now that it has happened, could Lochte have an added surge in confidence and, perhaps, defeat Phelps in another discipline, say the 200 freestyle.
Lochte has stated a few times that he has ambitions of tackling a schedule similar to that of Phelps' on the international stage. He clearly has the versatility to pull off the feat, what with his ability in the medley events, backstroke and improving freestyle showings. Just before he notched his win over Phelps, Lochte posted a second-place finish in the 100 freestyle behind Nathan Adrian. Don't be stunned if we see Lochte go after an eight-event slate for the 2012 Olympics.
Conversely, expect Phelps to take something from his setback. We all know how talented Phelps is in the pool, with 16 Olympic medals and the most national titles of anyone in history. But as much as Phelps' talent speaks, his mental edge and inner drive is downright scary. No one hates to lose as much as Bob Bowman's pupil.
Phelps and Bowman have both revealed that Phelps hasn't done the work necessary to compete at the highest level possible. Considering Phelps' track record, it figures the greatest Olympian in history will ratchet up the intensity in practice and rededicate himself to an arduous schedule as his last World Championships and Olympics approach. For all Phelps has accomplished, he's indicated there are a few things he still wants to achieve, and it is certain he will not bow out of the sport giving anything less than a supreme effort.
One of the best parts of this summer of swimming is that we won't have to wait too long to see Phelps and Lochte battle once again in the 200 IM. Another showdown should take place at the Pan Pacific Championships in less than two weeks, back in Irvine. Whether Lochte maintains his roll or Phelps returns to the alpha dog slot will soon be determined. For now, though, the result from Nationals did enough on its own. Lochte proved he has the ammo to knock off Phelps, and Phelps likely had his fire reignited as he prepares – according to his timeline – to close out a special legacy.
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August 9, 2010 Well written article! Submitted by: mario2007
August 9, 2010 I can't believe all these comments are coming up. Everyone knows Phelps steps up when the time comes, meaning he will beat Lochte at Pan-Pacs. Has he ever failed to show up big when the time mattered? Submitted by: champmode
August 9, 2010 Lochte will beat Phelps in the 200 IM and Phelps will beat Lochte in the 200 free at Pan-Pacs. Seems to me that Lochte was tapered last week, what about Phelps? Phelps has always gone faster at Worlds Submitted by: Max Argie
August 9, 2010 Uhh, Nationals seems like a pretty good time to step up. They say nothing changed, but the only other time Lochte EVER beat Phelps long course was the 100 back at last year's Santa Clara meet. That's it. It's a pretty big deal for Lochte to crush him like that, especially right after the 100 free, and using Phelps tactics against him (such as the last turn, doubles, etc.) No, Phelps has never failed on the big stage, but he's never been such an underdog in an international race (except in his first Olympics when he was 15 and the 200 free in Athens). Phelps could go 1:54-high at Pan Pacs, but Lochte won't have another double, and he could break his world record even (1:54.10).
In short, Phelps will step up, but he doesn't have enough TO step up to beat Lochte this year. Submitted by: David Rieder
August 9, 2010 I agree with you David.
Somehow I sent my comment before finishing it. I was saying that Phels has always gone faster at Worlds and Olympics than at Trials (as apposed to many others, which maybe have to go 100 to get a spot, not Phelps case). Anyway, I hope Phelps has some more to come in two weeks, even if not enough to beat Lochte. But maybe a 1:44 mid in the 200? Submitted by: Max Argie
August 9, 2010 I think we can expect some more from Phelps. It will be interesting to see if he can beat Crocker's 50.40 in the 100 fly. 1:44-something should be doable in the 200 free, 1:55-low or 1:54-high in the 200 IM, and 1:53-mid in the 200 fly. Because of the schedule, he will probably swim the individual 100 free, and I could see him going 48-low in that too. Submitted by: David Rieder
August 9, 2010 David Rieder is totally on with comments here. There's NO WAY Phelps will perform that much better in 2 weeks at Pan Pacs. Historically, Lochte always gave Phelps the run for his money in the 200IM when Phelps was at his best. Phelps is certainly not at his best. Next season will likely be a different story.
I think 1:44 high in the 200 Free, 1:54 mid 200 Fly, 1:55 low 200 IM, 48 mid 100 Free (theoretically). Submitted by: mario2007
August 9, 2010 Lochte will break his world record in the 200 IM en route to beating Phelps. Also, I think it is funny just a few weeks ago Lochte said he wasn't sure he was going to swim the IM events because of his knee but now he's comming up with these crazy times. Was Lochte bluffing? Is this some kind of tactic by him? You tell me. Submitted by: philipmj24
August 9, 2010 Lochte's knee injury was toward the end of the last year. Old news. The concern coming into this meet was a groin pull from several weeks ago. Even though he felt much better there was some concern about re-aggravating it while swimming Breast. Obviously it wasn't an issue. Submitted by: ShortChange
August 10, 2010 I am not sure what will happen, but I would suggest no one else should be particulary certain about anything that involves Michael Phelps losing in a big meet. He certainly does not appear to be at his best... but a few weeks can make a major difference to any swimmer's taper.(both good and bad)
All other discussion aside, I will be happy to see a world record fall anywhere to help wash away the era of the super-suits.(Though I know Phelps never wore the Jaked) Submitted by: ouswimmer
August 10, 2010 Can Phelps swim the 100 free? Given his speed in the 100 fly, seems that his 100 free would be better tha his 200 free. Submitted by: Max Argie
August 10, 2010 Not necessarily. For example, Michael Gross was much better in the 100 fly & 200 free than in the 100 free. Phelps's signature race throughout his career has always been the 200 fly. Even if he botched the race a bit last week (I'm sure he'll rectify that at Pan Pacs). Remember this is a swimmer that's never been beaten at a major meet in the 400IM or 200 fly in seven years. Something that cannot be said for the 100 fly/or Freestyles. But throughout his career he's been more dominant in the longer races. Not that he hasn't tried and put work into the 100 free. I'm sure as he prepares for London we'll see him race it again. Submitted by: ShortChange
August 11, 2010 Max Argie Submitted by: mario2007
August 11, 2010 My comment didn't post...
Yes, Michael Phelps would excel at the 100 free if he chose to do so.
Anybody who frequents this site can provide an abundance of evidence toward that end. Submitted by: mario2007
August 12, 2010 @Shortchange; in general I agree with you, although this season Phelps being out of shape, his 100's could be relatively better than his 200's. Besides his 50.6 fly at Nats, he had in-season unshaved/tapered 53.9 back and 1:02.4 breast, close to his best (and beat Spann 1:02.5 in that meet). Only problem with 100 free is that he has said repeatedly that his freestyle feels "off", even during Natls. Hope he swims it at PanPacs tho, cause I'm curious.
I think Phelps is a clear underdog now in the 2 IM; remember that Lochte set the world record last year in a LZR, same suit Phelps wore in Beijing. I agree with Dave Rieders argument and I pick Lochte.
The only unknown variables to me are just how close to fully tapered Phelps and Lochte were at Nats. Both used their fitness level/injury, resepectively, to downplay their chances at Natls, but it also makes me think that perhaps both didn't fully taper and have more left in the tank for PanPacs, in which they could both be a bit faster and Phelps could be a bit closer.
Phelps did half-jokingly accuse Lochte of "always complaining about having some injury or another"; it's possible Lochte embellished the groin injury a little, but he also did admit to "babying" the injury a bit. I think what happened was that the "babying" was just very effective, and the injury just healed more quickly than he'd anticipated. Submitted by: liquidassets
August 12, 2010 Liquidassets,
His relatively slow time in the 200 fly at Nats was a result of a poor race not his current racing shape. Up until Nationals his best race results in the middle of training were arguably his fly races and that includes his 200s. He went 1:55 twice this year in the middle of training when he was posting "only" 1:57s in the 200 free and 1:58s in the 200IM. He would not have raced those times earlier in the season if he had slipped in the 200 fly relative to other events. In fact in contrast to the 100 free Phelps said earlier this year he was happy with his 200 fly. If you project his rested improvements this year in those other events to his 200 fly he should have been 1:52 to 1:53. Think about it. Project his improvements from the unrested 52 sec 100s to his 200s given that he went mid 50 flat at Nats. If he was going 1:55 at those meets earlier this season so what should be his improvement in the 200 fly? We'll have a better idea come Pan Pacs when he faces D'Arcy who's been 1:54 this year. Submitted by: ShortChange
August 12, 2010 Hmm... dunno, but I know he will beat D'Arcy; he's very pissed about the IM and he will NOT give up his "baby" the 2 Fly too. In general. when I think of getting out of shape and getting back into shape, the 2 Fly and 4 IM seem to be the most vulnerable and the last to come around, especially when swimming a full schedule. But I see what you're saying with the numbers; so he may have just felt particularly bad in the water that day leading to some mental lapses that in turn led to all the technical errors he mentioned. So yeah 1:52 or 1:53 sounds about right if all goes well. Submitted by: liquidassets
August 12, 2010 Hmm... dunno, but I know he will beat D'Arcy; he's very pissed about the IM and he will NOT give up his "baby" the 2 Fly too. In general. when I think of getting out of shape and getting back into shape, the 2 Fly and 4 IM seem to be the most vulnerable and the last to come around, especially when swimming a full schedule. But I see what you're saying with the numbers; so he may have just felt particularly bad in the water that day leading to some mental lapses that in turn led to all the technical errors he mentioned. So yeah 1:53 sounds about right if all goes well. Submitted by: liquidassets
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