Predictions for the Next Decade -- January 4, 2010
PHOENIX, Arizona, January 4. SWIMMING World CEO Brent Rutemiller looks at "Predictions for the Next Decade" in the latest Voice for the Sport. This article is found in the January issue of Swimming World Magazine, but is also re-printed below.
Just as the last 10 years brought unprecedented changes to the aquatic sports, the next 10 shouldn't be any different. Here are my predictions for the next decade:
• A Professional Swim League will be established in the United States, Europe and Australia.
• Masters swimmers will be the first to embrace a professional circuit that allows for technical suits and no testing for performance-enhancing drugs.
• The banning of full body suits will be reversed, and material will be redefined once again for Olympic competition.
• Advertising will be allowed on swimwear during competition, similar to NASCAR.
• Indoor racing venues will experiment with extreme black lights and glow-in-the-dark lane lines.
• Glass-bottom competition pools will be constructed over shark tanks, giving the illusion of open water.
• Lane lines will be constructed with new materials, making them translucent.
• Open water racing will see the largest growth in popularity.
• A made-for-TV match race will feature two people racing to see who can travel from England to the French shoreline the fastest: one by driving to Heathrow airport in London, checking bags, going through airport security, flying to Paris, picking up luggage, renting a car and driving to the French shoreline; the other by swimming across the English Channel. My guess is that the swimmer wins.
• As a budget savings, the NCAA will combine all of its NCAA division championships into one week of collegiate championships at one venue.
• The courts will rule that Title IX discriminates against males.
• Chinese women will dominate the next two Olympics.
• Swimming will become the No. 1 fitness activity in the United States based on a national health movement and national health care recommendations.
• Due to energy prices and economic conditions, pool rental prices will skyrocket in the United States, forcing many clubs to consolidate or shut down.
• Jessica Hardy will get her ban on the 2012 Olympics reversed, allowing her to compete in London.
• Water Polo in the United States will continue to grow in popularity, and competition for pool space with USA Swimming clubs will intensify.
• Current dope testing procedures and periodicals will be abolished, and a new blood passport system will be installed in Europe.
• High school swimming will grow in participation. However, new high school facilities will not be built.
• New scientific methods will be used to increase oxygen to an athlete's energy system, allowing for better training and recovery.
• Supplements taken by athletes to assist in nutrition and recovery will be regulated by governing bodies.
• Masters Swimmers will actively become part of groundbreaking quality of life and longevity studies that test scientific breakthroughs in genetic engineering.
• Use of infrared devices will become common during the elite training of athletes, allowing coaches to gauge muscle fatigue quickly based on heat expenditure. The same devices will allow coaches to change technique to recruit other muscles not being used based on mapping muscle heat exchange.
My personal wish for the next decade is that by 2012, there will be no drownings in the United States due to someone not having the opportunity to learn how to swim.
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7 THE YEAR IN REVIEW by Jason Marsteller
16 THE LAST HURRAH! by Jason Marsteller
As the techsuit era came closer and closer to an end, elite swimmers who competed at the five-meet World Cup circuit continued what they had done all year: break world records!
18 LEAVING HER MARK by John Lohn
Ariana Kukors made her long expected breakthrough at last summer's World Championships, breaking the world record in the women's 200 IM not once, but twice!
20 2010: A SPLASH ODYSSEY
Discover what the best synchro swimmers, divers, water polo athletes and open water swimmers have in store for this mid-quadrennial year.
24 THE MOST INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE IN UNITED STATES SWIMMING by Jason Marsteller
36 NAG TOP 10 (SHORT COURSE YARDS)
53 WORLD AND AMERICAN RECORD PROGRESSION (SHORT COURSE METERS)
56 LONG COURSE RECORDS
58 2009 WORLD RANKINGS compiled by FINA
DEPARTMENTS:
6 A VOICE for the SPORT
48 FOR THE RECORD
59 CALENDAR
62 PARTING SHOT
In the Swimming Technique portion of the magazine you will find the following: 30 Q&A WITH COACH TODD SCHMITZ, COLORADO STARS
by Michael J. Stott
32 HOW THEY TRAIN: Missy Franklin by Michael J. Stott
In the SWIM portion of the magazine you will find the following:
27 THE POOL'S EDGE: Let's Make A Deal by Karlyn Pipes-Neilsen
With the start of a new year, swimmers may include on their list of resolutions "to work out more often." Discover how they motivate themselves to return to training after the holidays.
28 DRYSIDE TRAINING: Abdominal Exercises to Improve Your Turns
by J.R. Rosania
In the Junior Swimmer portion of the magazine you will find the following: 33 AMERICAN RELAY by Judy Jacob
34 GOLDMINDS: Back from Your Break by Wayne Goldsmith
Now that you've had your holiday break from swimming, you can return from that break and become better than ever! It's time to start the way you want to finish!
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January 4, 2010 not if FINA continues to allow jammers!
http://swimviking.blogspot.com Submitted by: The Screaming Viking!
January 4, 2010 ...not if FINA continues to allow jammers!
http://swimviking.blogspot.com Submitted by: The Screaming Viking!
January 4, 2010 My predictions:
1. Grant Hackett's metric mile record will stand until London, maybe longer.
2. No one will break Thorpe's original time in 400m free. After all, this was probably the greatest time of all time in any event and no one came close for almost a decade. Then once the suits hit it gets broken by a few hundredths.
3. People will have a hard time breaking Popov's original standard in the 50.
4. Phelps gets back 200im WR in the next two years.
5. Paul Biedermann will be filling wall space with silver medals.
6. Anthony Ervin makes greatest comeback off all time to win the 50m in London. Submitted by: nduitch
January 4, 2010 Oh, and SwimInfo will finally get a new program for posts so people no longer double post. Submitted by: nduitch
January 4, 2010 Replies to ndiutch's predictions:
1. Definitely
2. I don't think so. How about the now-20 year-old who went 3:41.8 in LZR legs in Beijing (and missed the final in Rome wearing the same thing)? Watch out for Park Tae-Hwan in jammers in the next few years. He will be the first under 3:40.
3. Again, I disagree. I think people like Cielo, Bousquet, and Adrian will be under Popov's time easily. Maybe not sub-21, but under 21.6.
4. I think so.
5. Yeah, but I think Biedermann will have trouble with this Russian kid Danila Izotov as well.
6. Wouldn't that be awesome! Submitted by: David Rieder
January 4, 2010 My Predictions:
1-Grant Hackett 1500WR will stand a long time(I agree totally with nduitch)
2-Izotov will dominate 200 free in 2012.
3-Cielo will be unbeatable in major events in 50 free(a lot of his swim training partners have that opnion, mainly because of the end of shiny suits)and will made at least, 0.2 below popov´s old WR.
4-Federica Pellegrini will be more dominant than ever in 200 free.
5-The restriction about shiny suits will never go down because is a economical threat for all the beginners in swimming. Submitted by: MrIron
January 4, 2010 Nice predictions, a few points myself
1. I think Biedermann has been under rated as a result of the swimsuit debacle. I've followed his career since he was a junior and he is a huge talent. He will shock a lot of people in the coming years. I think he has a great shot at both 200 and 400 in London.
2. I think Pellegrini will continue to be the best in the world at 200 Free, but I see the gap closing on her not widening.
3. Cielo wins the major competitions because of a) his outstanding physical talent but also b) his outstanding mental approach to finals. Point b) will be why he continues to win the big finals.
Also - Just started a new blog at http://speedendurance.blogspot.com/ Submitted by: Tom
January 5, 2010 One question. Does SW know something about the Chinese female swimmers that we are not privy to? It was a chilling prediction. Submitted by: paddles
January 12, 2010 Although it is called "Swimming World", it is much less interested in China than in USA, Europe or Australia. Even if it knows something, it perhaps will not report them here, unless they can cause some *unusual* and *sensational* impression. It is just the way how media business is running for their *specific* group of readers/consumers and their own *special* needs.
If SW really cares, why wouldn't they report that Liu Zige and her coach are now visiting Bath and training with Rebecca Adlington's coach for two weeks and then with Janet Evans's Coach Mark Schubert for another two? Zhang Lin with Dave Salo at USC for a little more than one month, Wu Peng at a US university/club whose name is unknown yet, Sun Yang and Chen Qian with Dennis Cotterell at Autralia, some others with Michael Bohl and some with Ken Wood? I don't believe there are no people in SW that have not heard even a little of these. There is perhaps some reason if they won't follow or report it. Is it that people here are much more interested in hearing about stealing other country's secret training program than normal communication? Submitted by: tim
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