Column by John Lohn
CRANBURY, New Jersey, July 20. THE swimming portion of the World Championships is just days away, so it's time for some predictions on what will shake out in Rome. The task won't be an easy one, considering the suit charade that has thrown the sport for a major loop. But, we'll give it our best shot and see what happens. We're only going to pick the Olympic events, leaving our loyal readers to weigh in on the 50 sprints if they desire.
MEN
50 Freestyle
Gold: Cesar Cielo
Silver: Fred Bousquet
Bronze: Cullen Jones
NOTE: In a battle of Auburn sprint greats, Cielo backs up his Olympic title with a world crown. Jones squeezes onto the podium by lowering his American record.
100 Freestyle
Gold: Alain Bernard
Silver: Cesar Cielo
Bronze: Fred Bousquet
NOTE: The Olympic champion comes through and dips under 47 seconds for the second time, and this one will be ratified by FINA.
200 Freestyle
Gold: Michael Phelps
Silver: Tae Hwan Park
Bronze: David Walters
NOTE: He doesn't get his world record, but Phelps holds off the South Korean star. Walters repeats his strong effort from the U.S. Trials, allowing him to hold off German Paul Biedermann for bronze.
400 Freestyle
Gold: Tae Hwan Park
Silver: Ous Mellouli
Bronze: Zhang Lin
NOTE: We'll go out on a limb and say that Ian Thorpe's vaunted world record goes down in this era of overdone technology. Mellouli earns the first medal of what will be a sterling meet for the Tunisian.
1500 Freestyle
Gold: Ous Mellouli
Silver: Zhang Lin
Bronze: Ryan Cochrane
NOTE: Mellouli makes a major run at Grant Hackett's world record and prevails comfortably. Tae Hwan Park will make a run at a medal.
100 Backstroke
Gold: Aaron Peirsol
Silver: Ryosuke Irie
Bronze: Matt Grevers
NOTE: The world-record holder again goes under 52 seconds, holding off the rising Japanese star. Matt Grevers edges Aschwin Wildeboer for the bronze.
200 Backstroke
Gold: Aaron Peirsol
Silver: Ryan Lochte
Bronze: Ryosuke Irie
NOTE: One of the most anticipated events of the meet goes to the best backstroker in history, and in world-record time. Lochte digs deep on the final 50 to narrowly beat Irie.
100 Breaststroke
Gold: Mark Gangloff
Silver: Henrique Barbosa
Bronze: Eric Shanteau
NOTE: One of the toughest events to predict, we'll go with the guy who now has the second-fastest time in history.
200 Breaststroke
Gold: Eric Shanteau
Silver: Daniel Gyurta
Bronze: Henrique Barbosa
NOTE: Shanteau's feel-good story gets even better as the man who beat cancer captures his first world title and breaks the world record with a time in the low-2:07 range.
100 Butterfly
Gold: Michael Phelps
Silver: Rafael Munoz
Bronze: Michael Cavic
NOTE: Phelps breaks the magical 50-second barrier to beat the Spanish sprint star and Cavic, the Olympic silver medalist.
200 Butterfly
Gold: Michael Phelps
Silver: Laszlo Cseh
Bronze: Tyler Clary
NOTE: Phelps shatters the world record, skipping over the 1:51 realm with a 1:50-point performance. Cseh repeats his Olympic silver.
200 Individual Medley
Gold: Ryan Lochte
Silver: Laszlo Cseh
Bronze: Eric Shanteau
NOTE: Lochte takes down Phelps' world record and becomes the first man in the 1:53 arena, a swim he needs to fend off the Hungarian.
400 Individual Medley
Gold: Laszlo Cseh
Silver: Ryan Lochte
Bronze: Tyler Clary
NOTE: This final-day event is special, with the trio of medalists battling to the wire. Although they don't get Phelps' world record, it takes 4:04 for the gold.
400 Freestyle Relay
Gold: France
Silver: United States
Bronze: Australia
NOTE: The French get revenge for what took place at the Olympics and break the world record in the process.
800 Freestyle Relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Russia
Bronze: Italy
NOTE: The U.S. crushes its world record, hardly a stunning development. Russia has enough depth to collect the silver.
400 Medley Relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: France
NOTE: The U.S. cruises to the gold medal, ahead of an Australian team that is not overly hurt by the absence of Eamon Sullivan. The French earn the bronze.
WOMEN
50 Freestyle
Gold: Britta Steffen
Silver: Marleen Veldhuis
Bronze: Libby Trickett
NOTE: This is a stacked field, but the Olympic champ looked strong at the German Nationals and there's no reason to believe she won't be on target. It wouldn't be surprising to see Therese Alshammar or Dara Torres on the podium.
100 Freestyle
Gold: Britta Steffen
Silver: Libby Trickett
Bronze: Marleen Veldhuis
NOTE: The world-record holder, Steffen holds off Trickett in a race that requires a low-52 clocking for the gold medal.
200 Freestyle
Gold: Federica Pellegrini
Silver: Jo Jackson
Bronze: Sara Isakovic
NOTE: Pellegrini is the hands-down favorite for the gold medal and the Olympic champ will not disappoint. Americans Dana Vollmer and Allison Schmitt will push for a medal.
400 Freestyle
Gold: Federica Pellegrini
Silver: Rebecca Adlington
Bronze: Jo Jackson
NOTE: It will almost certainly take the first sub-4:00 performance in history to capture top honors and all three of the above women could go 3:59, though Pellegrini will get the job done ahead of a fast-charging Adlington.
800 Freestyle
Gold: Rebecca Adlington
Silver: Jo Jackson
Bronze: Camelia Potec
NOTE: The British women will sweep the top-two positions, Adlington prevailing in a race in which she's the world-record holder. Italy's Alessia Filippi could slide in for a medal.
100 Backstroke
Gold: Kirsty Coventry
Silver: Anastasia Zueva
Bronze: Hayley McGregory
NOTE: Coventry, the silver medalist at the Beijing Games, breaks her world record en route to the gold. McGregory, who broke through to make a major international team, gets into the medal mix.
200 Backstroke
Gold: Kirsty Coventry
Silver: Gemma Spofforth
Bronze: Elizabeth Beisel
NOTE: There might not be an event on the women's program as clear-cut as this one, which will be dominated by the two-time defending Olympic titlist. U.S. youngster Elizabeth Beisel makes the podium.
100 Breaststroke
Gold: Rebecca Soni
Silver: Yulia Efimova
Bronze: Annamay Pierse
NOTE: It's unfortunate Leisel Jones won't be around for a duel with Soni, but the American makes plenty of fireworks on her own by becoming the first woman to go under 1:05.
200 Breaststroke
Gold: Rebecca Soni
Silver: Annamay Pierse
Bronze: Mirna Jukic
NOTES: Soni and Pierse stage a sensational battle, with Soni registering a world record and going under 2:20. Jukic gives Austria the bronze medal.
100 Butterfly
Gold: Marleen Veldhuis
Silver: Christine Magnuson
Bronze: Jessicah Schipper
NOTE: After nearly breaking Inge de Bruijn's world record earlier in the year, Veldhuis collects the gold ahead of Magnuson, who becomes the first American woman under 57 seconds.
200 Butterfly
Gold: Jessicah Schipper
Silver: Jiao Liuyang
Bronze: Liu Zige
NOTE: Schipper knocks off the Chinese women who swept the top two slots in Beijing. The United States' Kathleen Hersey has a chance to factor into the medal picture and could break Misty Hyman's American mark.
200 Individual Medley
Gold: Kirsty Coventry
Silver: Stephanie Rice
Bronze: Ariana Kukors
NOTE: In a reversal of their finish at the Beijing Games, Coventry snares the gold medal ahead of her Aussie foe. In an out-on-a-limb prediction, Kukors goes a career best for the bronze medal. With Rice coming into this week with a respiratory infection, Hannah Miley could be an option as well.
400 Individual Medley
Gold: Stephanie Rice
Silver: Kirsty Coventry
Bronze: Elizabeth Beisel
NOTE: This time around, it's Rice who claims the gold medal, edging out Coventry. Beisel takes the bronze medal after beating Great Britain's Hannah Miley to the wall. With Rice coming into this week with a respiratory infection, Hannah Miley could be an option as well.
400 Freestyle Relay
Gold: The Netherlands
Silver: Australia
Bronze: United States
NOTE: The Dutch women have a serious amount of firepower and will put that talent on display in a world-record setting performance. Although the U.S. isn't in the gold-medal hunt, it lands in the bronze position.
800 Freestyle Relay
Gold: Great Britain
Silver: United States
Bronze: Australia
NOTE: The British squad atones for missing the final at last summer's Olympics by riding the efforts of Jo Jackson and Rebecca Adlington, in part, to the gold medal. The U.S., despite missing Natalie Coughlin and Katie Hoff, secures silver.
400 Medley Relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: China
NOTE: Rebecca Soni delivers a superb breaststroke leg and teams with Hayley McGregory, Christine Magnuson and Dara Torres for a slight upset of Australia.
Watch John Lohn and Peter Busch preview the swimming competition at the world championships the week of July 20 on The Morning Swim Show. Click here to view videos.
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Reaction Time Comments
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July 20, 2009 Couple things: 1) DON'T count out Alexander Dale Oen in the 100 (or 200) breast. We haven't seen anything from him in 2009, but I have a feeling he'll win the 100...
2) In my opinion, it isn't that out-on-a-limb to predict Kukors for bronze in the 200 IM. I could actually see both her and Smit beating Rice and Rice missing the podium! Kukors has a 2:09-low or 2:08-high in her.
3) Watch Australia's Meagen Nay in the 200 fack and Great Britain's Ellen Gandy in the 200 Fly, and Russia in the men's 400 free relay.
4) Not sure Isokovic can beat her training partner (Vollmer) in the 200 free. Submitted by: SwimDER94
July 20, 2009 Great article, you're right on target with all your predictions. Disagree on the order of the top two finishers in both the women's 400 free and 400 IM, but those are small quibbles. Submitted by: halfbreed
July 20, 2009 I don't know why people, including John Lohn, continue to give Ariana Kukors so much credit. WHY would anyone pick her to beat Julia Smit at World's when she couldn't get by Pelton, not to mention Smit, at Nationals? She just doesn't swim as well as she should at the biggest meets. Submitted by: nostradamas
July 20, 2009 To her credit, Ariana had a bad race at Nationals. She didn't use the breaststroke like she has in the past (i.e., Omaha GP last year, Olympic trials), and she had too much ground to make up. (Pelton got lucky b/c Kukors messed up breast and Dagny Knutson went out too fast and has a bad free.) I think she's ready for a big drop, and if the stars align (Rice still sick; Smit, Muffat, Miley, etc. slighly falter), she could be on the podium. Submitted by: SwimDER94
July 20, 2009 To her credit, Ariana had a bad race at Nationals. She didn't use the breaststroke like she has in the past (i.e., Omaha GP last year, Olympic trials), and she had too much ground to make up. (Pelton got lucky b/c Kukors messed up breast and Dagny Knutson went out too fast and has a bad free.) I think she's ready for a big drop, and if the stars align (Rice still sick; Smit, Muffat, Miley, etc. slighly falter), she could be on the podium. Submitted by: SwimDER94
July 20, 2009 One major omission is Ellen Gandy in the 200 fly. She went 2:04 at British trials and is still only 17...a lot more to come. I can't see Schipper ever going that fast tbh. Submitted by: calisurfin
July 20, 2009 I agree with SwimDER94 about Dana Vollmer. She's having a fantastic year. Sara Isakovic has a better best time for the 200 meter free, but the two of them have been swimming together at Cal all year and as far as I can remember, Dana has finished ahead of Sara in all their meets. Submitted by: flutterby
July 20, 2009 Great job on the predictions! I agree with most of 'em, but I think Irie is going to crush everybody in the 200 back..... Mark my words! :-)
GO TAE!!!! Submitted by: Hodori88
July 21, 2009 Just give Kukors a chance, okay? She's getting a second chance by virtue of Pelton giving up the event. I'm hoping that helps her swim relaxed. Even though she clearly didn't have a great 200 IM at the trials, she's got the experience of multiple international teams. And in terms of her season's training, she won Santa Clara 200 IM with a time that would have made the Rome team ahead of Pelton in a field that included Rice, and Indy finalists Smit, Knutson, Leverenz and a resurfacing former world Submitted by: dunc1952
July 21, 2009 Just give Kukors a chance. She's getting a second chance by virtue of Pelton giving up the event. I'm hoping that helps her swim relaxed. Even though she clearly didn't have a good 200 IM at the trials, she's got the experience of multiple international teams. And in terms of her season's training, she won Santa Clara with a time that would have made the team ahead of Pelton in a field that included Rice, Smit, Knutson and a resurfacing former world #1 in the event, Whitney Myers. Submitted by: dunc1952
July 26, 2009 KUKORS ROCKED IT TONIGHT! A World Record! I'd say that's taking advantage of the situation! SwimDER94 and dunc1952, guess you were correct in your support for her talent!
NICE!!! Submitted by: Hodori88
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