Column by John Lohn
CRANBURY, New Jersey, July 2. THE United States will begin selection of its squad for the World Championships next week in Indianapolis. Of course, one of the main storylines will be the continued suit saga that plagues the sport. We'll soon find out which suits the American swimmers gravitate toward, including those under contract with specific companies.
For now, here is one man's predictions as to which athletes will qualify to represent the USA at the World Champs in Rome. Keep in mind that some athletes entered on the psych sheet will opt to scratch the event. But, we'll try to do our best to make these event-by-event calls. Here we go, and enjoy.
50 Freestyle (Men)
1. Cullen Jones
2. Garrett Weber-Gale
**Gut says Jimmy Feigen is going to make a real run.
50 Freestyle (Women)
1. Dara Torres
2. Kara Lynn Joyce
**Lara Jackson will battle Joyce for the second spot.
100 Freestyle (Men)
1. Michael Phelps
2. Nathan Adrian
3. Garrett Weber-Gale
4. Matt Grevers
5. Ryan Lochte
6. Jimmy Feigen
**The times produced will provide an idea of whether the U.S. will give the French a battle in Rome.
100 Freestyle (Women)
1. Dara Torres (If she swims it)
2. Dana Vollmer
3. Julia Smit
4. Kara Lynn Joyce
5. Lacey Nymeyer
6. Amanda Weir
**If Torres goes, and she said it's up in the air, look out for a 52-point showing.
200 Freestyle (Men)
1. Michael Phelps
2. Ryan Lochte
3. Peter Vanderkaay
4. Ricky Berens
5. Dave Walters
6. Davis Tarwater
**The battle for the second slot should be a dandy
200 Freestyle (Women)
1. Katie Hoff
2. Dana Vollmer
3. Allison Schmitt
4. Dagny Knutson
5. Julia Smit
6. Mary DeScenza
**This thing is wide open
400 Freestyle (Men)
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Ryan Lochte (If he swims it;
**If Lochte goes here, it'll be interesting to see how low he can go.
400 Freestyle (Women)
1. Katie Hoff
2. Allison Schmitt
**What will Kate Ziegler bring to the table?
800 Freestyle (Women)
1. Katie Hoff
2. Kate Ziegler
**Can they erase the Beijing struggles that surfaced in this event?
1500 Freestyle (Men)
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Michael Klueh
**Without Vendt, No. 2 spot is open.
100 Backstroke (Men)
1. Aaron Peirsol
2. Matt Grevers
**There isn't a tougher race to call on the men's side.
100 Backstroke (Women)
1. Hayley McGregory
2. Margaret Hoelzer
**With Coughlin out, these two seem well above the rest.
200 Backstroke (Men)
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Aaron Peirsol
**This could go either way, as has been the case in the past.
200 Backstroke (Women)
1. Margaret Hoelzer
2. Elizabeth Beisel
**Repeat of Trials in Omaha.
100 Breaststroke (Men)
1. Mark Gangloff
2. Eric Shanteau
**No Hansen means the need for a 59 from one of these guys.
100 Breaststroke (Women)
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Megan Jendrick
**Solid tandem for sure.
200 Breaststroke (Men)
1. Eric Shanteau
2. Scott Spann
**It's hard to know what Spann will do. Hopefully an Omaha-esque effort.
200 Breaststroke (Women)
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Caitlin Leverenz
**Leverenz looking to break onto big-time stage.
100 Butterfly (Men)
1. Michael Phelps
2. Matt Grevers
**Behind Phelps, Grevers looks like best bet. Maybe a 49 from Mr. Olympia.
100 Butterfly (Women)
1. Christine Magnuson
2. Dana Vollmer
**Vollmer could win this thing.
200 Butterfly (Men)
1. Michael Phelps
2. Davis Tarwater
**A familiar finish.
200 Butterfly (Women)
1. Mary DeScenza
2. Kathleen Hersey
**Another relatively open event.
200 Individual Medley (Men)
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Eric Shanteau
**Shanteau takes advantage of Phelps passing on event.
200 Individual Medley (Women)
1. Dagny Knutson
2. Ariana Kukors
**American record likely.
400 Individual Medley (Men)
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary
**Clary is a future star.
400 Individual Medley (Women)
1. Dagny Knutson
2. Elizabeth Beisel
**Young guns lead the way.
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Reaction Time Comments
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July 2, 2009 I would put Chad Latorette in the mile over Klueh just because Klueh hasn't put himself in the mix for lcm at big competitions like olympic trials last year. Also, I would put Phelps over Grevers if he decides to swim the 100 back, but i think he will just stick with the 100 200 free and fly. Submitted by: WUswimmer
July 2, 2009 I'd say LaTourette wins the mile, but he's not going to be at Nationals. He's swimming at World University Games (again).
The battle in the 100 Back will be a doozy. Five guys could win it: Peirsol, Lochte, Bal, Thoman, Grevers. Peirsol has to be the favorite, but anyone could make it. Submitted by: SwimDER94
July 2, 2009 Also, Lochte won't do both 400 IM and 400 free - on the same day (he tends to over enter events); he should make whichever he chooses. He won't be anywhere near his best time in the 400 IM. Maybe he will if he swims it in Rome, when Cseh's pushing him.
Lochte's probably out of the 200 free b/c it's right before the 100 back - still on the relay, though.
Interesting how you scrambled up the Women's 100 free. I would usually think Joyce/Nymeyer/Weir towards the top. Also watch Magnuson and Hoff in that one. Submitted by: SwimDER94
July 2, 2009 What happened to Gil Stovall?? Am I just way behind here but I haven't heard anything about him since Beijing. Submitted by: squiggles255
July 2, 2009 Here are my predictions, through the first two days, in meet event order so I can look at my psyche sheet:
Women 100 Fly Vollmer Magnuson
Men 400 Free VanderKaay Lochte
Women 200 IM Kukors Knutson ...see if Kukors can do the swim she's been waiting for after failing technically at the end of last year's trials swim.
Men 100 Breast Shanteau Gangloff
Women 400 Free Hoff Sutton
Men 400 IM Lochte Clary
Women 100 Back McGregory DeScenza
Men 200 Free Phelps, Vanderkaay, Lochte, Berens, Walters, Tarwater
Men 100 Back Peirsol Lochte
Women 200 Free Knutson Vollmer DeScenza Joyce Hoff Burckle ...I see Schmitt not making the final
Men 200 Fly Phelps Tarwater
Submitted by: Nostradamas
July 2, 2009 I would put Bal as a firm lock on the 2nd position for the 100 back.
Is Hoff not swimming the IMs? Submitted by: mario2007
July 2, 2009 I'd like to know why the order of events (the days on which they occur) for the US World Trials is different from that of the World Championships themselves.
Anyone have any insights? Submitted by: SilverMedalMel
July 2, 2009 I'd like to know why the order of events (the days on which they occur) for the US World Trials is different from that of the World Championships themselves.
Anyone have any insights? Submitted by: SilverMedalMel
July 2, 2009 I'd like to know why the order of events (the days on which they occur) for the US World Trials is different from that of the World Championships themselves.
Anyone have any insights? Submitted by: SilverMedalMel
July 2, 2009 Sorry for the multiple posts. [I was receiving error messages from the Swimming World server.] Submitted by: SilverMedalMel
July 2, 2009 A lot of interesting angles here. First, Phelps. He swam the 100 back twice in his abbreviated early season, it's hard to believe he's not going to go for it at Trials. His 100 fly looks better than ever, and his own 200 fly record is there for the taking whenever he wants it. But his 100 free has been less than confidence-inspiring so far this year. He seems to be uncomfortable with the straight arm stroke, and switches back to a bent arm recovery whenever he's pressed. At the moment it looks as if he'll be doing well to just get back down to his PB of 47.51.
Hoff hasn't shown much this spring, but then again, last year it was almost as if she showed too much before it really counted, in Beijing. This year her timing may be better. Also, if she's been training with Bowman instead of Yetter, she's probably been doing more yardage, so will get bigger drops at the end.
Between the fact that Jones has been training with Marsh for a full year now and his 21.58 (?) in Europe, he probably has an AR in the 50 waiting to bust out. Plus he's a Nike athlete, and Nike will probably allow him to wear a Jaked or whatever he wants at Trials, so I wouldn't be surprised by a 21-low.
Likewise with Torres, her Beijing best of 24.07 is only a tenth away from the WR, and if she puts on a 100% non-textile suit, watch out.
It looks like Descenza's year, to make the team at least. She's been awfully consistent. Doing well in Rome would be another matter.
I wouldn't count out Liz Pelton in the 200IM. Literally six weeks after she turned 15 she went a 2:12.0 at Junior Pan Pacs in early January, in the same race where 17 year old Knutson went a 2:10.6 and was anointed our next great IMer. Shortly thereafter Pelton went a 200 yard IM in 1:55.1 -- in an old-fashioned bathing suit. She hasn't shown her hand the past couple months but she could be lying in wait.
Berens looked awfully good at Santa Clara, getting a bad start and still coming up with a 1:47-low. If Lochte or Vanderkaay falter, or even if they don't, Berens could be in for that second spot. Submitted by: halfbreed
July 2, 2009 Hey this may sound silly and have already been covered, but why are there no non-olympic 50's at the trials. Who (if anyone) swims them in Rome? Submitted by: jubl
July 2, 2009 my own personal predictions:
womens 100 fly: magnuson, vollmer
mens 400 free: vanderkaay, klueh
womens 200 IM: knutson, smit
mens 100 breast: shanteau, gangloff
womens 400 free: hoff, schmitt
mens 400 IM: clary, lochte
womens 100 back: mcgregory, hoelzer
mens 200 free: phelps, vanderkaay, lochte, walters, berens, beal
mens 100 back: bal, peirsol
womens 200 free: hoff, vollmer, knutson, schmitt, smit, burckle
mens 200 fly: phelps, tarwater
womens 100 breast: soni, carlson
mens 100 fly: phelps, mcgill
womens 50 free: torres, jackson
mens 50 free: weber-gale, jones
womens 400 IM: knutson, smit
mens 100 free: phelps, adrian, weber-gale, jones, grevers, brunelli
womens 200 fly: breeden, descenza
mens 200 IM: lochte, shanteau
womens 200 back: beisel, hoelzer
womens 800 free- hoff, sutton
womens 100 free: torres, weir, vollmer, nymeyer, joyce, knutson
mens 200 back: lochte, peirsol
womens 200 breast: soni, leverenz
mens 200 breast: shanteau, burckle
mens 1500: vanderkaay, klueh
Submitted by: pf3022
July 2, 2009 my own personal predictions:
womens 100 fly: magnuson, vollmer
mens 400 free: vanderkaay, klueh
womens 200 IM: knutson, smit
mens 100 breast: shanteau, gangloff
womens 400 free: hoff, schmitt
mens 400 IM: clary, lochte
womens 100 back: mcgregory, hoelzer
mens 200 free: phelps, vanderkaay, lochte, walters, berens, beal
mens 100 back: bal, peirsol
womens 200 free: hoff, vollmer, knutson, schmitt, smit, burckle
mens 200 fly: phelps, tarwater
womens 100 breast: soni, carlson
mens 100 fly: phelps, mcgill
womens 50 free: torres, jackson
mens 50 free: weber-gale, jones
womens 400 IM: knutson, smit
mens 100 free: phelps, adrian, weber-gale, jones, grevers, brunelli
womens 200 fly: breeden, descenza
mens 200 IM: lochte, shanteau
womens 200 back: beisel, hoelzer
womens 800 free- hoff, sutton
womens 100 free: torres, weir, vollmer, nymeyer, joyce, knutson
mens 200 back: lochte, peirsol
womens 200 breast: soni, leverenz
mens 200 breast: shanteau, burckle
mens 1500: vanderkaay, klueh
Submitted by: pf3022
July 3, 2009 It feels like there are some slim pickings in events, but wow, you have some massive faith in Dana Vollmer, particularly in the 100 freestyle! I think Keri Hehn will factor in strongly too over Leverenz. But Leverenz has been looking for a big breakthrough for a while now, I'm thinking it will be 2010. Submitted by: Priyant
July 3, 2009 Watch for Ariana Kukors and Dana Volmer to have some breakthrough performances at this meet. Submitted by: KRB
July 5, 2009 i see jimmy feigen making a good impact in the 100 free. granted the event is stacked but i see him contesting.
the 1500 watch out for jackson wilcox fresh off his sick freshmen year at texas.
is alexandrov able to compete for the US? if so i see him right up there with shanteau and the breast corps.
400 im watch out for margalis.
Submitted by: Tops82390
July 5, 2009 So I take it that the WUG contingent can't compete at the Trials? Seems like bad timing for that meet. Is there anyone from there besides La Tourette who would have had a shot at the Worlds team?
Not sure if anyone picked this but I would add Knutson for a relay spot in the 4x100 free relay. Submitted by: liquidassets
July 5, 2009 So I take it that the WUG contingent can't compete at the Trials? Seems like bad timing for that meet. Is there anyone from there besides La Tourette who would have had a shot at the Worlds team?
Not sure if anyone picked this but I would add Knutson for a relay spot in the 4x100 free relay. Submitted by: liquidassets
July 6, 2009 what is the broadcast schedule? Submitted by: ucswim
Reaction Time responses do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions
of Swimming World Magazine or SwimmingWorldMagazine.com.
Reaction Time is provided as a service to our readers.
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