By John Lohn
BEIJING, China, August 15. THE last time the United States was at a major international competition, it was disqualified in the preliminary heats of the 400 medley relay at the 2007 World Championships in Melbourne. This time around, the Stars and Stripes had no problem qualifying No. 1 for the championship final.
The squad of Matt Grevers, Mark Gangloff, Ian Crocker and Garrett Weber-Gale managed a time of 3:32.75 to nail down Lane Four for the medal race on Sunday morning. By that time, the Americans are likely to go with a relay consisting of Aaron Peirsol, Brendan Hansen, Michael Phelps and Jason Lezak. Phelps would get the spot if he wins tomorrow's 100 fly, obviously a good possibility.
The Australians finished second in the prelims in 3:32.76, thanks to the foursome of Ashley Delaney, Christian Sprenger, Adam Pine and Matt Targett. For the final, look for the Boys from Down Under to boast a lineup of Hayden Stoeckel, Brenton Rickard, Andrew Lauterstein and Eamon Sullivan.
Japan's quartet of Junichi Miyashita, Kosuke Kitajima, Takuro Fujii and Hisayoshi Sato qualified third in an Asian record of 3:32.81 while Russia took the fourth slot in 3:33.59, good for a European standard. The field for the final will be rounded out by Great Britain (3:33.83), New Zealand (3:34.09), South Africa (3:34.16) and Italy (3:34.32).
Results: 2008 Olympic Games - Swimming
Reaction Time Comments
August 15, 2008 No France. Didn't really think they were a contender in this, but it's interesting nonetheless. You would think with a 59.3 breaststroker, a 51.8 flyer, and a whole host of guys who can split 46 and 47 in the free, SOMEBODY would be able to swim backstroke. Submitted by: Dizzy1203
August 15, 2008 Has anyone done some figuring and come up with a preliminary guess as to who looks like the favorite? The Aussies look very very good and could pull an upset with Sullivan at the end. Submitted by: paddles
August 15, 2008 I've worked it out a few times, being very generous and very stingy, and I keep coming up with the U.S. winning. Of course, anything can happen. Peirsol is great in relays and should be at least close to his 52.5, which puts us with about a half second lead. Brendan has been off, but I would never bet against him in a relay situation. My guess is that he won't give up an inch, but even if he does, we outsplit them on the fly no matter what. We can't count on a 46.0 out of Lezak unless we're watching the replays of the 4x100 free relay (again). It was just an out of body swim. My guess is he can go mid to high 46. What that relay proved, however, was how tough he is in a close-race situation. I don't see Sullivan doing to him what he did to Bernard. Besides, Lezak is smart enough not to go 21.2 to his feet. Submitted by: Dizzy1203
August 15, 2008 This was my prediction on another thread on here.
U.S. splits are first and then the Aussie ones.
I think it will be pretty close.
Here are my split predictions (US first/AUS second)-- 52.2/52.8//59.6/59.3//49.9/50.8//46.4/46.2
I think Peirsol is actually the key on this one. He needs to be the big meet swimmer he has shown himself over time to be and get the relay off big. Lezak will need another big one too. Can't be flat like he was in the individual.
The U.S. wins 3:28.10 to 3:29.10.
Submitted by: rcoach
August 15, 2008 50.85 for Crocker today and he circle swam the leg. Is he playing possum a bit? Cavic looks tough too. At this point I don't think you can doubt Phelps. I don't know why I feel nervous like I am swimming tonight, but I do? Submitted by: PhatMatt
August 15, 2008 I too have crunched it and also having the U.S. winning with fairly conservative splits (52.7, 59.0, 49.8, and 46.8). That is a 3:28.3. I have the Aussies at 3:28.4 being more aggressive with their splits. (53.1, 58.8, 50.2, and 46.3). But who the heck really knows until they hit the water. It is fun to look at though. Submitted by: crafto
August 15, 2008 I don't know that I would call 49.8 and 50.2 conservative splits for the fly. Even if Phelps (or Crocker (or Cavic)) happened to go 50.2 or so in the 100 fly, I don't know that you can automatically count on a 49.8 on a relay, and certainly not enough to call it a conservative estimate. When Phelps gave Ian the relay spot in 2004, he went 50.1 off a 51.2 in the open event. That's rare (like Lezak in the relay this year). I guess I don't see how you think that Peirsol will go slower but that Phelps will splist his fastest 100 fly ever by almost a full second. Might happen, sure, but we can't assume that it will.
I honestly don't know if he's going to have the speed to go the 50.2 people are predicting. Crocker will be in the hunt; his 50.8 on the relay was basically a flat start if you watched the race. My concern for him is that he keeps coming back in about 27.2. Every time he's been under 51, his second 50 is between 26.8 and 27.0. Phelps certainly has the edge over everyone the second 50. And he's got a lot more speed than he used to have. Plus, he doesn't have the finals of the 200 IM right before the 100 fly like last night. At this point, I just hope the U.S. goes 1-2 again. Submitted by: Dizzy1203
August 15, 2008 If Crocker wins the 100 fly, don't be surprised if Phelps anchors the medley relay. He led off the 4x100 with a 47.51, will be going for gold medal #7 and will be pised which won't hurt his performance. No way do I see Sullivan running him down. Submitted by: EDBSWIM
August 15, 2008 Even if Crocker wins the fly, I think they'll put Phelps on the fly and Lezak at free. Truth is, Crocker owes that to Phelps. And if he wins, it won't be by much more than a tenth at most. Negligible. It wouldn't be fair to Lezak to bump him off the relay, either. That's not really Eddie's style. Submitted by: Dizzy1203
August 15, 2008 Actually, EBD makes an interesting point. What if Crocker wins? Is Peirsol/Hansen/Crocker/Phelps a relay possibility? Submitted by: Sphere
August 15, 2008 Don't worry.. Crocker has very little chance of winning the 100 fly. He gets 3rd at best, behind Phelps and Cavic in my opinion.. maybe even 4th.
Submitted by: gaash
August 15, 2008 Either way, this will be history in the making as I cannot remember when a team was so closely matched mano a mano to the USA medley relay. There will not be a two or three body length victory this time. WOW! Submitted by: paddles
August 15, 2008 dizzy, trust me when I say that 49.8 is conservative for Phelps. And I don't think Peirsol will go slower. But that is why I call it "conservative". The 50.2 is not conservative for the Aussie's. That is why I said it was "aggressive". Get it now?Flying starts on average are .7 faster, so I do not think it is a leap of faith to assume that Phelps has the ability to go a 50.5 flat start since he already has been 50.8 in prelims when all he was trying to do was qualify. Submitted by: crafto
August 15, 2008 I agree Crafto. 49.8 is a safe bet for Phelps. I think Dizzy didn't read your earlier email and was dizzy as a result. LOL. I too also agree that flying starts make up for .7 on average. I read somewhere that they actually statistically proved it. Submitted by: SwimBob
August 15, 2008 I agree that it is possible (and in fact probable). I guess I just disagreed with the standard for determining a conservative estimate. Phelps is definitely capable of splitting that fast, but if making a conservative estimate, I would use times he has gone rather than times we know he CAN go. As for the 50.2 for the Aussies, that was my bad -- I didn't notice that you were giving them "aggressive" splits. It's all moot, though. I think we all agree that the U.S. has the clear edge here. Submitted by: Dizzy1203
August 15, 2008 well....a slight edge. I'll give you that. Let's just get to the pool and race! :o) Submitted by: paddles
August 15, 2008 Great Effort by the NZers, they all swam out of their respective trees! Look out for them in 2012 to challenge 4 the medals Submitted by: jubl
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