5 for ’15: 5 Men in Need of Big Swims in 2015

Gian Mattia D'Alberto / lapresse 23-08-2014 Berlino sport 32mi Campionati Europei LEN di nuoto nella foto: Adam Peaty GBR Gian Mattia D'Alberto / lapresse 23-08-2014 Berlin 32rd LEN European Swimming In the photo: Radoslaw Kawecki POL

By David Rieder

DURHAM − Coming off a year with no major championship meet, much has changed among the world’s elite swimmers since they last reconvened in Barcelona. Thankfully, we only have a few months longer to see how the international landscape will take shape, with the 16th FINA World Championships looming this summer in Kazan.

Two weeks ago, I looked at five women for whom this year and this summer’s World Championships will hold extra importance. Today, I’ll examine the fortunes of five men in need of big swims in 2015. These five combined for two medals at the last World Championships, and three of those on my list did not even swim in Barcelona two years ago. Each has seen his stock rise in the past year, but a date with the old standbys will help put expectations in place for the 2016 Olympics.

5 for ’15: 5 Men in Need of Big Swims in 2015

Ryosuke Irie

Photo Courtesy: Delly Carr

Irie is no stranger to big international meets. He has seemingly been around forever, as he won his first international medal with a silver in the 200 back at the World Championships way back in 2009. However, he had a quiet meet in 2013, settling for fourth in both backstroke events. His win over Matt Grevers in the 100 back at Pan Pacs last year was his first win in a big race featuring an American, but he played second-fiddle once again in the 200 back, finishing behind American Tyler Clary.

Huge performances at Asian Games − 52.34 in the 100 back and 1:53.26 in the 200 back − vaulted Irie to the top of the world rankings. On paper, he would be the favorite to win both events at the World Championships, but Irie has a history of leaving his best swims at national or regional-level meets.

For instance, compare Irie’s times from Asian Games to those from Worlds a year earlier − 53.29 in the 100 and 1:55.07 in the 200. In Kazan, he’ll face the Olympic champion in each backstroke event − Grevers in the 100, Clary in the 200 − along with countryman Kosuke Hagino, Australia’s Mitchell Larkin, and China’s Jiayu Xu. He could win both events to announce himself as the world’s premier dorsal specialist, or he could end up an also-ran once more.

Gregorio Paltrinieri

Photo Courtesy: Gian Mattia Dalberto/Lapresse

This Italian has been rising quickly in the distance ranks since first emerging as a contender at the 2012 Olympics. Swimming at his first senior international meet, Paltrinieri finished fifth in the mile in 14:51.92. A year later, he made another leap forward when he got onto the podium for the first time at World Championships, holding off American Connor Jaeger for the bronze medal in the mile. At that point, though, he was still in a class behind China’s Sun Yang and Canada’s Ryan Cochrane.

Paltrinieri would make the world take notice at last year’s European championships when he ran away with titles in both the 800 and 1500 free. He was named virtual world champion in both events, but it was his mile that really jumped out. His time of 14:39.93 was four seconds clear of anyone else in the world last year, and it was the first sub-14:40 effort anyone had recorded since Sun and Cochrane broke the barrier at the 2012 Olympics. He backed that up with a gold in the 1500 at the Short Course World Championships in December.

He will enter the World Championships this year as the slight favorite for gold in the mile if only for the chaos surrounding the event. In the past year, Sun has faced the media spotlight for all the wrong reasons while facing a doping suspension. Cochrane, now 26, has long been a steady performer but hasn’t approached his best times in recent years. Australian Mack Horton has been on the rise, posting a third-ranked 14:48.76 last year, but Paltrinieri’s biggest obstacles to a world title appear to be a shockingly quick resurgence by Sun or simply inexperience.

Adam Peaty

Photo Courtesy: FINA Doha 2014

One year ago, most diehard swim fans knew the names Ryosuke Irie and Gregorio Paltrinieri. But Adam Peaty? Unlikely. He entered the European Championships as a new face among a strong group of British breaststrokers, but he was no guarantee to advance past the prelims in any event in Berlin due to the rule that only two swimmers per country could move on to the semi-finals.

Peaty made that rule mute. He swam a 58.68 in the semi-finals of the 100 breast in Berlin, the fifth-fastest performance of all time. Under the current suit rules, only Cameron van der Burgh has swum faster. He backed that up with another sub-59 swim in winning the finale, and the next day he knocked five one-hundredths of a second off van der Burgh’s world record in the 50 breast, posting a 26.62.

Think this success was just a one year flash in the pan? Unlikely. Men’s swimming has become an old man’s sport, but Peaty did not turn 20 until December. When he set his world record last year, he was the first male teenager to do so in ten years − the last being Michael Phelps in the 400 IM at the 2004 Olympics. Van der Burgh, Christian Sprenger, Daniel Gyurta, and others figure to be tough competition at the World Championships, but Peaty looks primed to take another step forward in 2015.

Ning Zetao

Photo Courtesy: Chinese Swimming

Ning Zetao swims sprint freestyle, not breaststroke. But like Adam Peaty, he did not attend the 2013 World Championships in Barcelona. In fact, he has never raced the likes of world champion James Magnussen, his Australian teammate Cameron McEvoy, Olympic champion Nathan Adrian, 50 free Olympic champ Florent Manaudou, or world record-holder Cesar Cielo. But in 2014, he swam just as fast as anyone.

The Asian Games always feature breakout stars from China and Japan, but few expected the rise of Ning Zetao. Ning won both the 50 and 100 free at the Asian Games. His 50 time of 21.94 won’t send shockwaves in this era where one must swim under 21.5 to have a shot at a major international medal, but his 47.70 in the 100 free would have been enough to win any World Championship final other than 2009.

Not satisfied with that, Ning came back a week later to post a 47.65, which tied for second in the world rankings with McEvoy, falling just short of top-ranked Magnussen (47.59). Ning has put up the times necessary to compete with the big boys, but can he put it together in the churning waters of a World Championship final? We’ve seen Magnussen, Adrian, Cielo, and the others perform with the stakes at their highest before, and Ning must do the same to prove he’s on their level.

Tom Shields

Photo Courtesy: Qatar Swimming

For someone who has followed NCAA swimming for years, Tom Shields is not a new arrival to elite swimming. Indeed, he is two years removed from finishing up a highly successful career at Cal where he won six individual NCAA titles and helped lead the Golden Bears to a pair of team championships. But his strength has always been his underwaters, and thus he could never really find a niche long course. Until the summer of 2014, that is.

Shields won his first two national titles this summer in Irvine, winning the 200 fly in 1:55.09 and touching out Michael Phelps in the 100 fly in 51.29. His 200 fly time ended the year ranked third, while he tied World Champion Chad le Clos for second in the 100 fly. But Shields could not replicate those performances two weeks later at Pan Pacs, getting DQ’ed in the 100 fly and not earning a second swim in the 100 fly as the fourth-fastest American.

Shields did earn a silver medal in the 100 fly at the Short Course World Championships in December, but consistency remains an issue, especially in the 200 fly. For the first time at Nationals last summer, he managed to use his early speed in the longer distance without fading too badly at the end, and he must continue to nail that strategy to contend for a medal this summer.

He should be in the thick of the medal hunt in the 100 fly as well, but that race holds extra importance for the United States. With Phelps absent from the World Championships team following his DUI arrest, Shields is the most likely candidate to take his place on the 400 medley relay. Great Britain, Australia, and Japan are among those sure to be pushing the Americans, so the U.S. will need Shields to perform if they want to hold onto that World title.

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ASwimFan

9 years ago

Such a great article.

Adam Peaty’s WR is still an awesome video!