400 Freestyle Relays Closer Than Usual But Australian Women, U.S. Men Remain Slight Favorites

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Kate Douglass & Jack Alexy -- Photos Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

400 Freestyle Relays Closer Than Usual But Australian Women, U.S. Men Remain Slight Favorites

The finals of both 100 freestyle events at U.S. Nationals generated much different 400 freestyle relay lineups than have represented the Stars and Stripes at major meets in recent years. The six swimmers who earned relay spots in the men’s 100 free Tuesday evening includes only two men who competed on the gold-medal-winning squad at last year’s World Championships, and only one woman is back from last year in Budapest — the one with the slowest split on that bronze-medal team.

Yes, some veterans faltered in their struggled to make it back onto the U.S. team, most notably Caeleb Dressel as he returns from a long layoff, but there were plenty of swimmers recording very solid performances that simply were not good enough amid massive improvement from under-the-radar names. Brooks Curry, who anchored last year’s world-title men’s relay to gold, won the 100 free B-final in 48.26. Normally, that’s a solid swim and plenty quick enough to make Worlds. This time? Seven swimmers went faster in the A-final.

The women’s final was much the same. Only one swimmer broke 54 in prelims at last year’s International Team Trials, but this year, it was six. Torri Huske, last year’s Worlds bronze medalist in the 100 free, ended up fifth in that event in 53.41, but she was only six hundredths slower than her winning time from last year’s selection meet. It was just that Kate Douglass, Abbey Weitzeil, Gretchen Walsh and Olivia Smoliga all went quicker than any American did last April.

Now, the question becomes relays. Did the American women do enough to put a true scare into long-dominant Australia at the World Championships in Fukuoka? Canada took silver in this relay at the last Olympics and last Worlds, but the Canadians will surely drop off this year with Penny Oleksiak out of the World Championships and Kayla Sanchez now representing the Philippines internationally.

Here’s what the breakdown looks like between the Americans and Australians, considering only each swimmer’s 2023 season-best time:

Australia: Molly O’Callaghan 52.48 + Emma McKeon 52.52 + Shayna Jack 52.64 + Meg Harris 53.09 = 3:30.73
United States: Kate Douglass 52.92 + Abbey Weitzeil 52.92 + Gretchen Walsh 53.14 + Olivia Smoliga 53.28 = 3:31.91

Mollie O'callaghan of Australia stands with the bronze medal after compete in the 50m Backstroke Women Final during the FINA Swimming Short Course World Championships at the Melbourne Sports and Aquatic Centre in Melbourne, Australia, December 16th, 2022. Photo Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

Mollie O’Callaghan — Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

This shows the Americans as just over a second behind the Aussies, closer than the margin of victory at last year’s Worlds in a race where individual Olympic champion Emma McKeon was absent and much closer than the three-plus seconds that Australia finished clear of the U.S. at the Tokyo Games. Yes, McKeon and Mollie O’Callaghan have been faster in the past, but the Americans could still add Huske to this relay after she finished fifth at Nationals. Huske owns a best time of 52.92, and she performed really well in relay action last year.

We also must consider the status of O’Callaghan, who twisted and popped out her kneecap recently, hampering her preparations for World Championships. The 19-year-old Queenslander has already returned to training for modified pull work, but it’s not guarantee she can return to her best within the next month. If for some reason O’Callaghan cannot go, the Aussies’ next-best option is Madison Wilson, a veteran with a history of 52-second relay splits, but her flat-start best this year is 53.42. Replace O’Callaghan’s 52.48 with Wilson’s 2023 best, and the Australian advantage in the relay composite drops to less than three tenths.

There is plenty still to be determined in the next month, specifically if O’Callaghan can bounce back from her injury and if Huske can return to her sub-53 flat start time, but it’s possible that the Americans can put a scare into Australia for the first time in six years.

In the men’s relay, the Americans assembled a deep squad. It took 48.00 to finish fourth in the final, compared to 48.25 last year and 48.19 at the 2021 Olympic Trials, and prelims times were even faster. But this American team lacks the reliable opening-leg pop that Dressel provided at the last two Olympic Games and last three World Championships, all five of which resulted in American gold.

From Tuesday’s event, the top four times all came from prelims, and even as the order of finishers was scrambled at night, the fastest on-paper quartet of Ryan Held, Jack Alexy, Destin Lasco and Matt King will all be in Fukuoka. At night, Alexy was the winner with the surprising Chris Guiliano joining him as an individual qualifier for Worlds while King, Lasco, Held and Justin Ress, who joined Held on last year’s gold-medal relay, also qualifying among the six likely relay alternates.

The top American relay lineups look vastly different in time and personnel based on prelims results compared to finals results, so we will show both groupings. It will be up to U.S. men’s head coach Bob Bowman and the staff to determine the relay lineups in Fukuoka, but given Held’s past success on relays and his ownership of the top season-best mark of all the U.S. men, it would be unsurprising if the coaches give him a pass onto the final squad.

United States: Ryan Held 47.63 + Jack Alexy 47.75 + Destin Lasco 47.87 + Matt King 47.99 = 3:11.18
United States (finals times only): Jack Alexy 47.93 + Chris Guiliano 47.98 + Matt King 47.99 + Destin Lasco 48.00 = 3:11.90

If the Americans depend on their best performances this year, they will be the slight favorites entering Fukuoka. However, the margins are thin. Based on 2023 results, two other countries have posted the combination of sub-48 and 48-low swims to enter medal contention. One is a familiar foe, Australia, with 2016 Olympic champion Kyle Chalmers and rising start Flynn Southam leading the way, but Great Britain is new to the scene in the 400 free relay. Here are their top composite relays:

Australia: Kyle Chalmers 47.44 + Flynn Southam 47.77 + Jack Cartwright 48.21 + Kai Taylor 48.41 = 3:11.83
Great Britain: Matt Richards 47.72 + Lewis Burras 47.99 + Duncan Scott 48.00 + Tom Dean 48.32 = 3:12.03

Great Britain has not contended in this relay in recent years despite massive success in the 800 free relay and 400 medley relay, but there are four legitimate 100 freestylers plus Jacob Whittle in reserve with a season best of 48.45. Duncan Scott and Tom Dean are both better in the 200 free but plenty capable in the two-lap race, and Matt Richards has emerged this year after an off-performance in 2022.

But it’s Australia that represents the biggest challenge to the American winning streak. That’s because Chalmers is the most dangerous relay swimmer in the world. He split 46.60 to lift the Aussies from fifth place to silver at last year’s Worlds, and with plenty of support from his fellow Aussies, the Americans are within reach.

We cannot forget about Italy as a player in this. At last year’s European Championships, the Italians won gold in 3:10.50, ahead of Australia’s silver-medal time from Worlds, with Alessandro Miressi leading off in 47.76 and Thomas Ceccon, Lorenzo Zazzeri and Manuel Frigo all splitting under 48s. However, Italy does not have quick enough times yet in 2023 to create a composite relay that would accurately reflect their abilities.

That’s three countries with a legitimate threat to the recent trend American dominance during the Dressel era. Thus, the American men will need at least some of the squadron of rookie international swimmers (Alexy, Guiliano, King and Lasco) to replicate or surpass their Nationals times when they reach the international stage for a chance at gold.

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Ryan Heath

11 months ago

And don’t forget that Cameron McEvoy is on fire. He can clearly swim 48.0 or quicker at moment from a flat start