2021 Trials Vision: Caeleb Dressel in League of His Own in 100 Butterfly

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Photo Courtesy: Becca Wyant

Caeleb Dressel’s best and most dominant has arguably been the 100 butterfly

Each day during the pre-scheduled days of the 2020 US Olympic Trials, Swimming World will take its readers back four years to the 2016 Trials in Omaha to recap each event, and will offer some insight into what the events will look like in 2021.

Caeleb Dressel has become the face of USA Swimming since he broke onto the scene at the 2017 World Championships, winning three individual gold medals in Budapest. He followed that up with one of the greatest performances at an NCAA championships with three American records at his senior year NCAAs, and pursued a pro career in swimming.

The 2018 summer was rough for him but he followed it up with four individual golds at the 2019 Worlds and broke his first long course world record in the 100 butterfly. Ahead of what would be his second Olympic appearance next year, Dressel is the heavy favorite to make the team in the 100 fly, and the 50 & 100 free – with this 100 fly perhaps being his most dominant event.

The Favorite

Caeleb Dressel – Photo Courtesy of Becca Wyant

Caeleb Dressel won the gold medal at the 2019 World Championships in this event by over a second ahead of Russia’s Andrei Minakov. He is one of three men to break 50 seconds in this event all-time, and he was the only one to break 51 in the early days of 2020 with his 50.92 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in March. Although Dressel has been known to be more of a 50 freestyler, the 100 butterfly is where he has been untouchable, and it is hard to see a scenario where he does not win at Trials next year.

The Contenders

Michael Andrew. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Michael Andrew has the potential to make multiple events at next year’s Trials as he is in contention in the 100 breast, 50 free, 200 IM and 100 fly. But three of Andrew’s best events fall on day six and seven, with the 200 IM final overlapping with the semifinals of the 100 fly, with the 50 free coming on day seven. He will need to make a decision on which events he has a best chance at making. The Trials schedule is heavily back-loaded for sprinters, with the new mixed medley relay falling on day seven and the medley relay falling on day eight. If Andrew makes the team in either the 100 breast or 100 fly along with the 50 free, he will be heavily relied upon the last three days of the Games. So there is a potential that Andrew may not swim the 100 fly, but he has the second fastest time in the nation with a 51.33 so he cannot be ignored. It’s just a matter of which events he swims in Omaha.

Andrew Seliskar. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Andrew Seliskar has emerged as a multi-event favorite as well – with his 100 fly season best putting him third in the nation at 51.95. Seliskar could also run into the 200 IM – 100 fly double on day six but he has shown he has been able to handle doubles on the big stage. Seliskar was primarily known as an IM’er and 200 butterflyer in high school, but his sprint speed has been impressive as of late, putting up a 51.3 last summer at the World Cup after the World Championships. Seliskar has been flying under the radar simply because he hasn’t showed his full potential yet. Remember, he was dubbed as a “future star” in high school and has been one of the most versatile swimmers in the U.S. the last few years.

Jack Conger has been the #2 guy behind Dressel the last couple of years as he was 11th at last year’s Worlds in this event. He was a 52.1 in March to sit fourth in the U.S. thus far this year. Conger has developed into more of a 100 butterflyer over the 200 since he won the national title in 2017 in the longer distance. Conger will be pushing for his second trip to the Games as he did not swim an individual event in Rio four years ago. He remains a favorite in this, perhaps his best event for Trials.

Tom Shields made the team four years ago in this event and finished seventh in Rio. He has struggled since, but picked up a gold at last summer’s Pan American Games with a 51.59. He was a 51.73 in February this year to put himself in contention ahead of Trials, and has been swimming with a clearer mind since having mental health and sleeping issues the last few years. He swam a best time at age 28 earlier this year in the 200 yard butterfly, so he has been in a good place with his swimming as of late. He just needs to be able to carry that into 2021.

Maxime Rooney. Photo Courtesy: Connor Trimble

Texas senior Maxime Rooney had the second fastest time in the world last year with a 50.68, which would have won the silver medal at the World Championships. Rooney was another swimmer that had a lot of hype coming out of high school but didn’t quite perform up to expectations. He had a big senior season starting with the 2019 summer where he entered the top ten in the world in the 100 fly and 100 free, but he was unable to carry that momentum into NCAAs.

The Longshots

Another swimmer that missed an opportunity at finishing his NCAA career was Coleman Stewart, who was the bronze medalist at the World University Games. Stewart, along with Louisville’s Nick Albiero, was expected to challenge for the 100 fly NCAA title this year, but we will never know how that turned out. Stewart has been able to translate his short course success to long course and with another year, he could be dangerous.

Giles Smith was eighth at the last two Olympic Trials in this event and was ranked fifth in the U.S. with a 52.37 this year. Smith has been a consistent performer, but hasn’t made a U.S. team at either the Worlds or Olympics. Will the third time be the charm for him? His consistency and determination will be what keeps him in the conversation ahead of next summer.

Luca Urlando was the number one 200 butterflyer in 2019, but has started to develop his 100 – swimming a 52.49 in November. Urlando will have a year under Jack Bauerle before Trials, so he may slip into the top two.

Looking to Tokyo

The U.S. has been dominant in this event at the Olympics, with Michael Phelps winning three straight from 2004 – 2012. In total, the Americans have won seven of the 13 gold medals at the Games, and that could be expanded to include Caeleb Dressel next year.

2021 Trials Vision

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3 years ago

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