400 Medley Relay Breakdown: American Women Look Dominant, Men’s Race Tight

American breaststroker Nic Fink -- Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

400 Medley Relay Breakdown: American Women Look Dominant, Men’s Race Tight

Of the six single-gender relays that will be contested at the World Championships in Fukuoka, five are without an overwhelming favorite. The lone exception is the women’s 400 medley relay, where the Americans are the only squad without a true weak leg. The results from this week’s Nationals gave the U.S. medal contenders in all four 100-meter events, and the U.S. women could challenge the world record. Even American “B” or “C” squads would likely be favored over anyone else in the world.

It’s a different story in the men’s 400 medley relay, an event the U.S. has never lost at an Olympics, but upset bids have denied the Americans gold at the 2019 and 2022 World Championships. A British squad led by breaststroke star Adam Peaty and the second-fastest freestyle split ever by Duncan Scott stunned the U.S. in Gwangju in 2019, and three years later, Italy pulled off a win when a pair of individual world champions, Thomas Ceccon and Nicolo Martinenghi, opened up a big lead and the remaining two swimmers held on.

Regan Smith is likely to handle the backstroke leg for the U.S. women — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

As is so often the case at major meets, the women’s relay should be between the U.S. and Australia, by far the two best swimming nations in the world. The American team is likely to include Regan Smith on backstroke, either Lilly King or Lydia Jacoby on breaststroke, world champion Torri Huske on butterfly and either Kate Douglass or Abbey Weitzeil anchoring.

Australia will field a team including world-record holder Kaylee McKeown and sprint stars Emma McKeon and Mollie O’Callaghan, but there is a potential issue for the Aussies on breaststroke, with both Chelsea Hodges and Jenna Strauch out for the year because of injuries.

Here is a breakdown of the composite relays based on season-best times:

United States: Regan Smith 57.71 + Lilly King 1:04.75 + Torri Huske 56.18 + Kate Douglass 52.57 = 3:51.21
Australia: Kaylee McKeown 57.50 + Abbey Harkin 1:07.20 + Emma McKeon 56.74 + Mollie O’Callaghan 52.48 = 3:53.92

Australia has beaten the Americans in this event as recently as the 2021 Olympics, and the key to that victory was Hodges unexpectedly splitting only a half-second behind Jacoby on the breaststroke leg. Abbey Harkin would need a huge drop in the 100 breast to stay close, with the difference on breaststroke almost two-and-a-half seconds.

McKeon, returning to the World Championships after skipping last year, is one of the best relay swimmers ever and certainly capable of out-splitting Huske on fly, but O’Callaghan is currently dealing with a knee injury, threatening possibly her availability for Worlds and certainly her chances of being at her best. Given those conditions, nearly everything would have to be perfect for even an outside chance at an Australian upset.

On the men’s side, it’s a much different story. The Americans got some solid results from Nationals, including Friday night with Nic Fink’s best time in the 100 breast and when Hunter Armstrong and Ryan Murphy both posted expected solid results in the 100 back. But this year’s team will lack the ace that carried the relay from 2017 through a world-record-setting performance at the 2021 Olympics: Caeleb Dressel’s butterfly leg.

This year’s 100 fly field looked problematic when all three Americans who broke 51 last year, Dressel, Shaine Casas and Hunter Armstrong, were all struggling early on at Nationals, but Dare Rose emerged with a brilliant swim to become the national champion, touching in 50.74. That butterfly speed eclipses what every other contender can produce aside from France.

As for the 100 free, the Nationals winning time was merely 47.93, but veteran Ryan Held is on the team as a relay swimmer, and he clocked 47.63 in the 100 free prelims. He is likely the best option for the U.S. on the anchor leg.

The biggest challenge should come from Italy, with all members of last year’s team returning. Few Italians have recorded times close to their best this year, so for this composite, we will feature season-best times from last year. Also included in this analysis will be France, Australia and Great Britain.

Italy: Thomas Ceccon 51.60 + Nicolo Martinenghi 58.26 + Federico Burdisso 51.45 + Alessandro Miressi 47.39 = 3:28.70
United States: Hunter Armstrong 52.33 + Nic Fink 58.36 + Dare Rose 50.74 + Ryan Held 47.63 = 3:29.06
France: Mewen Tomac 58.50 + Leon Marchand 58.50 + Maxime Grousset 50.61 + Florent Manaudou 48.12 = 3:30.10
Australia: Isaac Cooper 53.46 + Zac Stubblety-Cook 59.68 + Matt Temple 51.35 + Kyle Chalmers 47.44 = 3:31.93
Great Britain: Oliver Morgan 53.92 + James Wilby 59.25 + Jacob Peters 51.16 + Matt Richard 47.72 = 3:32.05

So right now, the Italians and Americans are likely co-favorites. We’ll see if Ceccon can match his world-record setting form of one year ago, but it’s unlikely that the difference after 100 meters will be the seven tenths listed here. Given the American advantage on butterfly, this team should be in good shape for gold if they are within a half-second after 200 meters.

Great Britain falls off with Peaty missing this year’s Worlds, and while Australia has the very solid Matt Temple on fly leading into superstar Kyle Chalmers on the end, the front end might be too weak to keep pace with the field. Keep an eye on France, a new contender in the medley relay but a legitimate one thanks to strong performances by Mewen Tomac, Maxime Grousset and Florent Manaudou at the French Trials plus the potential of Leon Marchand.

The world’s best medley swimmer is likely to take over breaststroke for France after he swam the fastest 50 and 100-yard breaststroke splits in history while representing Arizona State at the NCAA Championships. Marchand swam a time of 2:06.59 in the 200 breast last month, but it’s unclear what he is capable of in a two-lap breaststroke race. We guessed his time as 58.50.

If he ends up swimming significantly faster, that makes France a contender for gold, but for now, consider the U.S. and Italy a step above the rest.

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