{"id":603890,"date":"2025-01-30T06:57:31","date_gmt":"2025-01-30T13:57:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=603890"},"modified":"2025-02-03T12:48:24","modified_gmt":"2025-02-03T19:48:24","slug":"u-s-mens-swimming-tiers-part-1-why-its-lonely-at-the-top","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/u-s-mens-swimming-tiers-part-1-why-its-lonely-at-the-top\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Men’s Swimming Tiers, Part 1: Why It’s Lonely at the Top"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. Men’s Swimming Tiers, Part 1: Why It’s Lonely at the Top<\/strong><\/p>\n

It was a banner 2024 for American swimming.<\/p>\n

Wait, let\u2019s try that again.<\/p>\n

It was a banner 2024 for American female swimming. The men\u2019s side of the equation, well, not so much.<\/p>\n

At each of the three biggest meets that brought together American and international talent in 2024, the gulf in performance between the men\u2019s and women\u2019s teams was stark.<\/p>\n

The Paris Olympics were the ultimate stage. The Americans left Paris with eight gold medals and 28 total pieces of hardware. Only two of the golds came from the men\u2019s side, which waited until Bobby Finke<\/strong> on the final day of competition to clinch the first American male individual gold medal. American men accounted for nine medals in Paris, exactly half of the women\u2019s tally of 18 (plus gold in the mixed medley relay).<\/p>\n

Just as concerning was a propensity not to emerge from prelims that was alarmingly prevalent among the men. In Paris, three male swimmers failed to qualify for semifinals out of prelims in their individual events<\/a>; only four men had done that at the previous five Olympics combined. The American men also had four swimmers fail to qualify for finals in prelims-finals distance events after just five total such instances in the last five Olympics.<\/p>\n

The shortfall continued at the World Short-Course Championships in Budapest in December. The American women were rampant at Duna Arena, winning 13 gold medals and 27 total. The men accounted for five golds and 10 total medals, including none in butterfly, backstroke or breaststroke.<\/p>\n

The disparity traces all the way down to college competition. Only one non-American woman (Virginia\u2019s Italian-born Jasmine Nocentini,<\/strong> in the 100 breaststroke and four relays) ascended to the top step of the podium at the Women\u2019s NCAA Championships in the spring. At men\u2019s NCAAs, eight individual titles were taken home by international swimmers, leaving just five for Americans. Arizona State\u2019s NCAA title was backed by five individual championships, all from international swimmers, and a 400 medley relay title that featured a solitary American.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a concerning moment for American male swimming, in a maelstrom of other worries for Olympic sports in general at the collegiate level. The problems predate many of those: The reckoning would\u2019ve happened after Tokyo in 2021 if not for Caeleb Dressel\u2019s<\/strong> storybook games papering over the cracks. Excluding Dressel in Tokyo, the American men won three individual golds and seven total medals.<\/p>\n

The root causes are complex and varied, relating to the amount of talent in the pipeline and how well that talent is developing at the elite levels relative to international counterparts. Charting a path forward with the pieces that the U.S. has at its disposal is no simpler.<\/p>\n

Since the Tokyo Olympics, 58 men have represented the United States internationally at major meets, from World Championships (short- and long-course) to the Pan Am Games to the 25-man squad for the Paris Olympics. That is the talent pool that the U.S. has for the foreseeable future, with a few names sprinkled in from the youth ranks.<\/p>\n

As the calendar turns to 2025 \u2013 with a nod to Zach Lowe\u2019s annual NBA tiers ranking<\/a> \u2013 we take a shot at putting the U.S. men’s swimming ranks into some perspective. What\u2019s working? What isn\u2019t? Which performances are outliers and which might be sustainable? And if American fortunes are going to change any time soon, from whom could the impetus come?<\/p>\n

This is Part 1 of 2, looking at some of the top names in the program might go in the next few years. Part 2 is available here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Stars: Bobby Finke, Ryan Murphy<\/h4>\n

Imagine you\u2019re marketing American male swimming right now. You\u2019ve got to find athletes who are the face of your program, who are going to showcase American male swimming the way that Christian Pulisic<\/strong> does men\u2019s soccer or Simone Biles<\/strong> women\u2019s gymnastics. Who\u2019s getting the ad spot? Who\u2019s going on that poster?<\/p>\n

On the women\u2019s side, the options are overflowing. For the men, it\u2019s largely crickets.<\/p>\n

Ryan Murphy\u2019s<\/strong> charisma, leadership and swimming exploits make him an obvious choice. He\u2019s a five-time Olympic gold medalist and a 16-time World Champion over all courses. He\u2019s the best American men\u2019s backstroker since Aaron Piersol<\/strong> and deserves a spot in the pantheon of all-time greats. But \u2026 (get ready for the first of many qualifiers in this piece) at 29, Murphy may have swum in his last Olympics. He went from double gold in Rio to silver-bronze in Tokyo to bronze and 10th in Paris. In eras past, he may have already been supplanted by the next young backstroker (even more than Keaton Jones<\/strong> making a final in the 200 back that Murphy missed in Paris). But that person to keep Murphy off of international teams hasn\u2019t yet emerged or found a way to best him.<\/p>\n

That would leave Bobby Finke.<\/strong> He is 25, with four Olympics gold medals, including the program\u2019s face-saving gold in the 1500 in Paris<\/a> to go with silver in the 800. He\u2019s a world record holder. Distance swimming may not be sexy, but Finke\u2019s racing style has made it thrilling and as accessible as possible to non-swimming fans. At this point, if you have to choose a race tomorrow that an American man stands the best chance of winning, it\u2019s Finke in the 800 or 1,500.<\/p>\n

The Medal Threats: Carson Foster, Luke Hobson, Jack Alexy, Chris Guiliano, Hunter Armstrong<\/h4>\n

In a world where Leon Marchand<\/strong> doesn\u2019t exist, Carson Foster<\/strong> leaves Paris with three medals. He has the tough luck of being an IMer in the same era as one of the disciplines foremost exponents. That\u2019s all that prevents him from being in the star category. But fourth in the 200 IM, third in the 400 IM and silver in the 800 free relay at an Olympics is amazing versatility from a swimmer who is still just 23.<\/p>\n

\"Luke

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div>\n

Bronze at the Olympics put Luke Hobson<\/strong> in this category before the 2024 Short-Course Worlds, where he won gold in the 200 free and took down<\/a> a Paul Biedermann<\/strong> world record, which doesn\u2019t happen every day. About the only knock on Hobson is that he seems limited to the 200 free, not fast enough to leg out the long-course 100 nor really a factor in the long-course 400. Being a 200 freestyler isn\u2019t easy these days, with the British contingent, David Popovici<\/strong> and the possibility that Marchand slips into the 200 for his Phelps-in-Athens moment. But Hobson is 21 and improving every day. That\u2019s a great place to be.<\/p>\n

Jack Alexy<\/strong> has all the pieces to be an elite sprinter. It just hasn\u2019t come together at the right time yet. Two relay medals in Paris were an adequate return, if he didn\u2019t hit the highs of silver in the 50 and 100 free from the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka. The 100 free gold at the Budapest Short-Course Worlds is a start.<\/p>\n

Chris Guiliano<\/strong> might be the best avatar for the current chaos of American male swimming. First man since Matt Biondi<\/strong> to qualify for the Olympics in the 50-100-200 free<\/a>? Great! Finishing 19th in prelims of the 200 free in Paris? Not great! Seventh in the 100 free in Paris? OK, I\u2019m back in! Seventeenth in the 50? Wait, what. Relay gold and silver in Paris! OK, but where is this going? A college season cancelled requiring a transfer? I\u2019m in a glass case of emotion.<\/p>\n

Guiliano\u2019s Olympic Trials was one of the all-time great meets from an American man. His Olympics was forgettable. His truth lies somewhere in between, but it\u2019s a pretty big space.<\/p>\n

The American gold medal in the 400 free relay in Paris owes largely to Hunter Armstrong<\/strong> outsplitting everyone who wasn\u2019t Kyle Chalmers.<\/strong> He turned 24 in January, but the late-comer to swimming is younger than his years indicate. His prowess in the 50 back can sustain him through this cycle, and his sprint free ability makes him essentially an extra body on international teams.<\/p>\n

The Venerable Vets: Kieran Smith, Chase Kalisz, Nic Fink<\/h4>\n

Chase Kalisz<\/strong> said in Tokyo that he was likely done with the 400 IM, then won silver in Budapest, finaled in Fukuoka and qualified for Paris, though he failed to final there. The three-time Olympian and Tokyo Olympic champ is 30. He\u2019s earned the right to swim on as long as he sees fit, and it\u2019s up to younger swimmers to get faster than he is.<\/p>\n

Everything written about Kalisz applies to Nic Fink<\/strong> and then some. He\u2019ll turn 35 between Olympic Trials and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, so it includes more speculation about retirement than Kalisz, especially given the new arrival Fink welcomed this year<\/a>. Since the Tokyo Games, he\u2019s worked the hardest among American men, his 25 medals at the six World Championships from 2021-24 leading all men internationally<\/a>. If he wants it, a niche in the breaststroke landscape may remain open, especially if he condenses to the 50 and 100.<\/p>\n

Kieran Smith<\/strong> is only 24. His bronze medal in the 400 free in Tokyo is likely to go down as the only individual Olympic medal of his career. But he remains a valuable relay cog over 100 and 200 meters. Nine of 11 Worlds medals are in relays, and he should be a factor in the next Olympic cycle.<\/p>\n

The Relay Reliables: Ryan Held, Brooks Curry, Matt King, Drew Kibler, Justin Ress<\/h4>\n

Ryan Held<\/strong> won relay gold at the Olympics eight years apart, missing the Tokyo Games in between<\/a>, resilience that seems valuable as the current moment sorts out.. He\u2019s 29 and can still do a job for the U.S.<\/p>\n

Brooks Curry<\/strong> doesn\u2019t seem like a contender for individual international medals, but he keeps earning his way onto relays. Newly 24, it\u2019ll be no surprise if he finds his way to Los Angeles.<\/p>\n

Matt King<\/strong> was .01 from earning an Olympic spot in the 50 free. He\u2019s got six Worlds medals and an Olympic gold. He may be the third choice American sprinter over 100 meters behind Alexy and Guiliano at this point.<\/p>\n

Drew Kibler<\/strong> has finished third in the 200 free at each of the last two Olympic Trials. He\u2019s two and a half years removed from finishing fourth at the World Championships in 2022. Whether or not he qualifies for another major international event in the 200 is an open question, but at 24, he\u2019s a valuable relay cog.<\/p>\n

It seems inconceivable that Justin Ress,<\/strong> who owns two career World Championships individual medals, hasn\u2019t made it to an Olympics. But for the 27-year-old, whose best long-course event is the non-Olympic 50 back, that\u2019s the case. He\u2019s in a weird rut where his 100 free has never been quite elite for anything other than relay duty, the options for the 50 free are too limited and the 100 back spots are hard to access with Armstrong and Murphy.<\/p>\n

The retired!: Jake Foster, Trey Freeman<\/h4>\n

Jake Foster<\/strong> swam his last at Olympic Trials and was in med school by Monday<\/a>. Godspeed. Trey Freeman,<\/strong> who made the 2022 World Championship squad, retired later that year.<\/p>\n

The retired?: Jay Litherland, Zane Grothe, Zach Harting, David Curtiss, Blake Pieroni<\/h4>\n

Much of what was written for Kalisz is true for the man he shared a Tokyo podium with in the 400 IM. Jay Litherland<\/strong> had a great Olympic Trials, third in the 400 IM (three-quarters of a second behind Kalisz) and fifth in the 200 back. In weaker events, he might have gone to Tokyo. At 29, he hasn\u2019t said he\u2019s retired, so the door remains open.<\/p>\n

Blake Pieroni<\/strong> has retired once<\/a>, and it didn\u2019t stick. A third Olympics and a fourth career medal was his reward<\/a>. The 29-year-old can swim off into the sunset if he so chooses.<\/p>\n

Zach Harting<\/strong> didn\u2019t make it to Paris, but he was part of the team at Short-Course Worlds in Budapest. He\u2019s 27, he\u2019s got a lot going on outside the pool and he rides a slightly different wavelength than most<\/a>. Plus he has the security of having been to Tokyo, his Olympian status sealed.<\/p>\n

David Curtiss<\/strong> stepped away from NC State in 2023<\/a>, then finished 16th in his only event at Trials, the 50 free, despite gold at the Pan Am Games the previous fall. The 100 free long-course has not been his forte, which limits his options. He\u2019s also heading into the hardest years to sustain form, those couple of years right after college eligibility ends.<\/p>\n

Zane Grothe<\/strong> first flirted with retirement in 2017 and didn\u2019t compete at Olympic Trials in 2024. He may still be on the swim scene for a few years more if not a serious contender for international teams.<\/p>\n

The Big Question Mark, Ver. 1: Caeleb Dressel<\/h4>\n
\"Caeleb

Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala\/DeepBlueMedia<\/p><\/div>\n

Dressel won five gold medals at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021. In 2024, he finished sixth in the 50 free, 13th in the 100 fly and won two relay golds and relay silver. In between, he bowed out of the 2022 World Championships and failed to qualify for Worlds in 2023.<\/p>\n

Dressel has 10 career Olympic medals, nine of them gold. He\u2019s one of America\u2019s all-time greats. If he never wants to don a racing suit again, he could walk into retirement owing the sport nothing.<\/p>\n

But \u2026 in a world where veteran sprinters (Nathan Adrian, Jason Lezak, Gary Hall Jr., Anthony Ervin<\/strong>) found ways to extend their careers and achieve success by winnowing their programs, Dressel has a blueprint if he wants to follow it<\/a>. Doing so could be an asset to the American program with his relay versatility. The only question is what Dressel \u2013 the swimmer, but also the dad, the husband, the human being \u2013 wants out of the next stage in his life<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Big Question Mark, V2: Michael Andrew<\/h4>\n

Andrew didn’t make the 2024 Olympic team. The 2024 Olympic team was not very good. Therefore \u2026 Andrew did not have a very successful 2024.<\/p>\n

Andrew is a puzzle, one we probably didn\u2019t think we\u2019d still be tinkering with at age 25 when he won gold at the World Short-Course Championships at age 17 in 2016. That swim might still make the short list of his top accomplishments almost a decade later. There was medley relay gold in Tokyo, yes, and mixed medley relay gold in Budapest Worlds in 2022 to go with 50 free silver and 50 fly bronze.<\/p>\n

But the last two years have been disappointing. He qualified for but didn\u2019t get to swim at the 2023 Fukuoka World Championships due to roster-size limits. At Olympic Trials in 2024, he finished eighth in the 100 breast, 16th in the 100 fly and fifth in the 50 free.<\/p>\n

His best Olympic event is a quandary<\/a>, since his forte is probably a 50-meter stroke. In theory, the American program would be looking for sprint butterfly depth beyond Dressel and sprint breaststroke depth if Fink\u2019s career is over, but Andrew has fallen short of providing either. It\u2019s a conundrum. A talented conundrum, but a conundrum nonetheless.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. Men’s Swimming Tiers, Part 1: Why It’s Lonely at the Top It was a banner 2024 for American swimming. Wait, let\u2019s try that again. It was a banner 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8367,"featured_media":590052,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,7],"tags":[31607,72820,69986,35724,60848,25490,123031,62948,41402,71204,70001,37335,28605,53502,101190,126720,56459,33982,32355,25269,110015,2690,46700,27781],"class_list":["post-603890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-usa","tag-blake-pieroni","tag-bobby-finke","tag-brooks-curry","tag-caeleb-dressel","tag-carson-foster","tag-chase-kalisz","tag-chris-guiliano","tag-david-curtiss","tag-drew-kibler","tag-hunter-armstrong","tag-jack-alexy","tag-jay-litherland","tag-justin-ress","tag-kieran-smith","tag-luke-hobson","tag-matt-king","tag-michael-andrews","tag-nic-fink","tag-ryan-held","tag-ryan-murphy","tag-usa-mens-swimming","tag-usa-swimming","tag-zach-harting","tag-zane-grothe"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nU.S. Men's Swimming Tiers, Part 1: Why It's Lonely at the Top<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It was a banner 2024 for American female swimming. 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