{"id":484061,"date":"2021-07-30T22:42:24","date_gmt":"2021-07-31T05:42:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=484061"},"modified":"2021-07-30T23:04:11","modified_gmt":"2021-07-31T06:04:11","slug":"olympics-after-mixed-medley-fiasco-americans-need-relay-redemption-in-finale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/olympics-after-mixed-medley-fiasco-americans-need-relay-redemption-in-finale\/","title":{"rendered":"Olympics: After Mixed Medley Fiasco, Americans Need Relay Redemption in Finale"},"content":{"rendered":"

Olympics: After Mixed Medley Fiasco, Americans Need Relay Redemption in Finale<\/strong><\/p>\n

The four-person swimming relay debuted at the fourth edition of the modern Olympics, at the 1908 Games in London. Men competed in the 800 freestyle relay in 1908, while the first women\u2019s relay came with the addition of the 400 freestyle relay four years later at the 1912 Games in Stockholm. The Americans did not enter a team in that initial women\u2019s relay, and 68 years later, there would be no American relays at the boycotted 1980 Olympics in Moscow.<\/p>\n

But aside from those absences from the field altogether, no American swimming relay had ever missed the podium. None. Zero. From 1908 until 2016, the Americans were podium perfect.<\/p>\n

Now, in one Olympics, two relays have come up short. First was the men\u2019s 800 free relay Wednesday, when Zach<\/strong> Apple<\/strong> faded over the last 50 meters of his split. The Americans finished fourth, six tenths away from the podium, an especially painful outcome considering that simply replacing Apple\u2019s split with Andrew Seliskar\u2019s<\/strong> from prelims would have earned the Americans a silver medal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That was bad. What happened in the mixed medley relay was much worse.<\/p>\n

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Lydia Jacoby\u2019s goggles fell off when she dove in to swim breaststroke on the mixed medley relay, but she still managed an admirable effort — Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher\/USA Today Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

The Americans got a good leadoff split from Ryan<\/strong> Murphy<\/strong>, but anyone cheering for the U.S. likely got worried when they saw Lydia Jacoby<\/strong> eating her goggles. They had fallen off her eyes on the start, and there was nothing Jacoby could do. And you know what? Her split was 1:05.09, just 0.14 off her gold-medal winning time from earlier in the week. Props to the 17-year-old for keeping her composure there. After a goggles malfunction, that\u2019s a great swim. The near-disaster had no impact on the race\u2019s outcome.<\/p>\n

\u201cYeah, I don\u2019t know. I\u2019ve never really had that happen before. It\u2019s out of my control at that point once I\u2019m in the water, so I just swam the best I could as it\u2019s happening in the moment,\u201d Jacoby said. \u201cI was definitely panicking a little. I could still breathe. I think my turn was where it was most rough because I couldn\u2019t see the wall, but other than that, I feel like I pulled through as best I could.\u201d<\/p>\n

Then Torri Huske<\/strong> went in, and she went out in 25.41 before fading slightly down the stretch. Her final split was 56.27, a half-second slower than her 55.72 from the individual 100 butterfly final. Sure, she probably faded down the stretch, but with the Americans eight seconds out of first place and five seconds out of sixth, Huske got hit with a huge wall of water as the Australian and British anchors dove in on either side of her right as Huske went by.<\/p>\n

Caeleb Dressel<\/strong> was left with an enormous deficit to overcome, and he split 46.99, not bad for his third race of the evening, but that still left the Americans with a final time of 3:40.58, three seconds off Great Britain\u2019s gold-medal winning time of 3:37.58<\/a> and more than a second and a half away from the medals.<\/p>\n

Frankly, all of the U.S. swimmers performed fairly well. So how did this relay end up fifth?<\/p>\n

\n

The Critical Lineup Errors<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Imagine, for a moment, another scenario. Regan Smith<\/strong> led off the prelims squad for the mixed medley relay in 57.64. Michael Andrew<\/strong> has not been great in Tokyo, and he swam the 50 free final earlier in the night, but Andrew Wilson<\/strong> has split as quick as 58.35 on a medley relay before, and Nic Fink<\/strong> has been 58.57. Dressel broke the 100 butterfly world record earlier in the session, touching in 49.45, and Abbey Weitzeil<\/strong> swam a 52.99 in the 100 freestyle semifinals.<\/p>\n

57.64 + 58.57 + 49.45 + 52.99 = 3:38.65<\/p>\n

Boom. There\u2019s a medal. Great Britain was still a full second faster, but just like in the men\u2019s 800 free relay, they were probably untouchable here, the dynamics of the mixed medley relay allowing them to minimize their weaknesses (like men\u2019s backstroke, which will be the Brits\u2019 Achilles heel in the upcoming men\u2019s medley relay). But 3:38.65 is two tenths quicker than China\u2019s silver-medal winning time of 3:38.86.<\/p>\n

Sure, Dressel would still have to pull the double in this scenario, and Weitzeil had just competed in the 50 free semifinals, but Australia\u2019s Emma McKeon<\/strong> went directly from swimming an Olympic record of 24.00 in the second semifinal back to the ready room for the relay, with no time for a single lap of warmdown, and she still anchored for Australia in 51.73. If the American coaches were uncomfortable with that double for Weitzeil, Erika Brown<\/strong> swam a 52.86 anchor leg in prelims of the women\u2019s medley relay the night before. The Americans had options.<\/p>\n

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The numbers suggest that the U.S. mixed medley relay squad should have included Regan Smith — Photo Courtesy: Robert Hanashiro\/USA Today Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

But U.S. coaches Greg Meehan<\/strong> and Dave<\/strong> Durden<\/strong>, along with national team director Lindsay<\/strong> Mintenko<\/strong>, decided upon Murphy, Jacoby, Huske and Dressel. We don\u2019t know why they chose that option. But an analysis of the Americans\u2019 best times from the Olympics showed that they should deploy female swimmers on backstroke and freestyle and male swimmers on breaststroke and butterfly. Compare the differentials of each swimmer\u2019s best. This uses Dressel\u2019s semifinal effort for the 100 fly, since relay lineups were due before the individual 100 fly final.<\/p>\n

Backstroke: Murphy 52.20 vs. Smith 57.64 = 5.44
\nBreaststroke: Andrew 58.62 vs. Jacoby 1:04.95 = 6.33
\nButterfly: Dressel 49.71 vs. Huske 55.73 = 6.02
\nFreestyle: Dressel 47.02 vs. Weitzeil 52.99 = 5.97<\/p>\n

So using Smith on the backstroke leg here should have been a no-brainer. That\u2019s the first mistake. If the coaches did not want Andrew to swim the double, they had other options for a male breaststroker that would suffice here.<\/p>\n

Beyond that, Dressel on the butterfly makes more sense than on the freestyle to keep the Americans in range and not give Dressel such an enormous deficit to make up as he did when Huske swam fly. Imagine the first two legs proceeded exactly as they did and then Dressel swam fly. Simply matching his 100 fly flat-start world record from earlier in the night (with the benefit of a relay exchange), the Americans would have been fourth after his leg, just a shade off second place. Weitzeil would have at least had a fighting chance on the anchor leg, which Dressel did not have fighting from way behind.<\/p>\n

Murphy explained the coaches\u2019 reasoning for making that choice. \u201cI think that\u2019s just a matter of circumstances. Our two fastest 50 freestyler were in the heat before, so that turnaround is really quick. I think that\u2019s what really led to the decision to put Caeleb in the freestyle.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

So What\u2019s Next?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

It is day seven of the Olympics, and the Americans have one gold and just three medals in five relays so far. The last time the Americans won less than three gold medals in relays at an Olympics was in 1956 \u2013 when there were only two relays on the program, and Australia won both. Barring a sweep of the women\u2019s and men\u2019s medley relays in Sunday\u2019s swimming finale, that streak will come to an end.<\/p>\n

That said, the Americans should be co-favorites to win gold in both events. Admittedly, that news might be another gut punch to U.S. fans who just watched the mixed medley relay finish fifth, but we have already hashed that one out enough.<\/p>\n

For the American women, the team is likely to be Smith, Jacoby, Huske and Weitzeil, in that order. The only slight question mark is Weitzeil, who will have to pull a double with the 50 freestyle final, but the schedule calls for 35 minutes in between races. And the primary competition for the U.S. will be Australia, which will have both McKeon and Cate Campbell coming off the splash-and-dash.<\/p>\n

\"olympics,

Emma McKeon will swim the butterfly leg on the Australian women’s medley relay, which will challenge the Americans for gold — Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher\/USA Today Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

If Smith can stay close to Australian backstroker Kaylee<\/strong> McKeown<\/strong>, Jacoby should be able to build a big lead on Aussie breaststroker Chelsea<\/strong> Hodges<\/strong>, whose best time in 1:05.99 and best at the Olympics a 1:06.60. That should provide a significant advantage for Huske and Weitzeil, although they will need every bit they can get to hold off McKeon and Campbell, two of history\u2019s best relay swimmers.<\/p>\n

In the men\u2019s relay, expect Murphy on back, Dressel on fly and Apple on free \u2013 and Apple should be ready to go for a 100-meter relay leg \u2013 but breaststroke is somewhat of a question mark. Andrew has been nowhere close to his best in Tokyo, and he will have the 50 free final earlier in the evening, so Fink and Wilson are possibilities to handle those duties.<\/p>\n

The closest competition for the Americans is Great Britain. Luke Greenbank<\/strong> handles backstroke for that squad, and while Greenbank won bronze in the 200 back in Rio, his 100 back is far inferior (season best 53.34, Tokyo best 53.79). Murphy should beat him by more than a second on that leg. Peaty will crush the American breaststroker, whoever it is, but if the Americans can stay within a second and a half of Peaty\u2019s split and send Dressel into the pool within a half-second of James<\/strong> Guy<\/strong>, they are in great shape.<\/p>\n

Britain will anchor with Duncan<\/strong> Scott<\/strong>, who split a mind-boggling 46.14 at the 2019 World Championships to pass the U.S. for gold, but Apple has some heroic relay credentials of his own, specifically that 46.69 anchor leg on the men\u2019s 400 free relay back on day two that clinched American gold.<\/p>\n

So there\u2019s hope. After a meet when several relay strategy decisions have not worked out, there\u2019s actually very little strategy behind the single-gender medley relays. The Americans just need the inexperience Jacoby and Huske to come through \u2013 perhaps the mixed relay gave them some good experience \u2013 and for the men, whoever swims breaststroke to stay within striking distance of Peaty and Apple to replicate his form from the first half of the meet.<\/p>\n

But time is nearly up for the Tokyo Olympics as this U.S. team hopes to avoid another inglorious bit of Olympic history \u2013 and finish in their usual spot, on top of the podium.<\/p>\n