{"id":483374,"date":"2021-07-27T13:20:27","date_gmt":"2021-07-27T20:20:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=483374"},"modified":"2021-07-27T13:20:27","modified_gmt":"2021-07-27T20:20:27","slug":"olympics-day-4-notebook-exciting-oscillating-medley-showdown-imminent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/olympics-day-4-notebook-exciting-oscillating-medley-showdown-imminent\/","title":{"rendered":"Olympics Day 4 Notebook: Exciting, Oscillating Medley Showdown Imminent"},"content":{"rendered":"

Olympics Day 4 Notebook: Exciting, Oscillating Medley Showdown Imminent<\/strong><\/p>\n

Six women swam under 2:10 in the semifinals of the women\u2019s 200 IM, and realistically, any of them could win gold in this race. For the first time at these Tokyo Olympics, a final is arriving with very little indication as to how the race will play out. And it\u2019s especially weird to see in the 200 IM because at every major championships going back to the 2016 Olympics, Katinka Hosszu<\/strong> has recorded blistering times through prelims and semis \u2013 five of those six swims were 2:07s and the other a 2:08-low \u2013 but now, Hosszu qualified seventh in 2:10.22, so she will be swimming in lane one. Does Hosszu have a big drop left in her? Unlikely.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, none of the top four swimmers out of the semifinals have ever competed in a major international final. 19-year-old American Kate Douglass<\/strong> was the top seed with her time of 2:09.21<\/a> after swimming a lifetime best of 2:09.16 in prelims, and Great Britain\u2019s Abbie<\/strong> Wood<\/strong>, 22, was second in 2:09.56. Alex<\/strong> Walsh<\/strong>, another 19-year-old American who like Douglass swims at the University of Virginia, won her semifinal heat to qualify third in 2:09.57. None of that trio has ever competed at an Olympics or World Championships before.<\/p>\n

Fourth is China\u2019s Yu<\/strong> Yiting<\/strong>, the veteran of the group at age 15. Yu made her major meet debut at the 2019 World Championships (as a 13-year-old) and placed 11th in the 200 IM.<\/p>\n

\"Jul

Yui Ohashi celebrates winning gold in the 400 IM at the Olympics — Photo Courtesy: Robert Hanashiro\/USA Today Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

The experienced swimmers will swim in lanes two and seven: 400 IM gold medalist Yui Ohashi<\/strong> of Japan and World Championships silver medalist Sydney Pickrem<\/strong> of Canada.<\/p>\n

So how does this race break down? Douglass and Walsh have basically opposite styles, with Douglass excelling on the butterfly and freestyle legs and Walsh owning the best middle 100 of backstroke and breaststroke. Yu has fantastic early speed, Pickrem is elite on the breaststroke and freestyle, and Wood will be a medal contender in the upcoming 200 breaststroke. Ohashi does not really have a weak stroke.<\/p>\n

The crystal ball for the final suggests that Douglass and Yu are out the fastest on the opening length before Walsh takes over after backstroke. After that, it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess what the margins will be and who can catch who. Expect a fun and extremely tight one.<\/p>\n

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Anyone Could Medal Behind Milak<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Speaking of races that are completely up in the air, we have the men\u2019s 200 butterfly \u2013 but only the battle for silver. Kristof Milak<\/strong> eased up considerably in the semifinals but still managed to post an all-time top-10 performance and lead the field by almost three seconds<\/a>. Michael Phelps\u2019<\/strong> largest margin of victory in winning his three Olympic gold medals in the 200 fly was seven tenths. Milak will triple or quadruple that margin. Phelps\u2019 largest margin in any major final was 3.04 seconds at the 2007 World Championships, and Milak should surpass that.<\/p>\n

But behind Milak, the second through ninth qualifiers all finished between 1:54.97 and 1:55.31, separated by just a third of a second In an incredible race for the last few spots, only nine hundredths separated places six through 10, the difference between racing again in the final (for three of the men) or not (for Zach<\/strong> Harting<\/strong> and Noe<\/strong> Ponti<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

\"Jul

Can South Africa’s Chad le Clos make another Olympic medal run in the 200 fly final? — Photo Courtesy: Robert Hanashiro\/USA Today Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

Among the seven swimmers in the field besides Milak, the race could go a zillion different ways. 2012 gold medalist Chad le Clos<\/strong>, the oldest in the field by four years at age 29, will likely try to jump on the race from beginning, although maybe not to the tune of 52.68 or faster than Milak going out. By far the best finishing split in the semifinals belonged to Milak\u2019s fellow Hungarian Tamas Kenderesi,<\/strong> who came home in 29.38.<\/p>\n

A check of recent history shows that it\u2019s normal for a 200 fly semifinal to see only a couple guys break 1:55 before more men pick up the pace in the final. The 2016 Olympics and the last two World Championships have each seen five men break 1:54 in the final, so expect around that number in this race. Japan\u2019s Daiya Seto, the third-fastest performer in history at 1:52.53 and the silver medalist at the 2019 World Championships, ended up 11th and missed his second final in two events this meet. The next quickest lifetime best belongs to le Clos, but he swam his 1:52.96 nine years ago in London.<\/p>\n

Four other swimmers in this field have broken 1:54 this year: Italy\u2019s Federico Burdisso<\/strong> (1:54.28), Hungary\u2019s Tamas Kenderesi<\/strong> (1:54.37), Japan\u2019s Tomoru Honda<\/strong> (1:54.59) and Brazil\u2019s Leonardo de Deus<\/strong> (1:54.83). All of these guys are solid bets for medals.<\/p>\n

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100 Freestyle Won\u2019t Be Easy for Caeleb Dressel<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\"Jul

Caeleb Dressel after his 100 free prelims swim — Photo Courtesy: Robert Hanashiro\/USA Today Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

Caeleb Dressel<\/strong> officially took over the top spot in the 100 freestyle world rankings Monday morning when he led off the U.S. men\u2019s 400 free relay in 47.26, which was still three tenths off his best time of 46.96. Historically, Dressel improves from the relay as the meet goes on and he gets into his individual program, so he will still likely take his shot at the world record (46.91), but he has some significant competition here that makes the 100 free the toughest of his individual events.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve been anticipating the next Dressel vs. Kyle Chalmers<\/strong> 100 free showdown<\/a> since Dressel barely held off Chalmers for gold at the 2019 World Championships by 0.12. Chalmers\u2019 best time is 47.08, easily the second-quickest in the field. And he looked extremely dangerous while anchoring Australia\u2019s 400 free relay in 46.44.<\/p>\n

As far as threats to the decorated duo of favorites, Kliment Kolesnikov<\/strong> had the world\u2019s top time for much of the spring after swimming a 47.31 in April, and Kolesnikov came through in Tuesday\u2019s finals when he took silver in the 100 back in 52.00. Italy\u2019s Alessandro Miressi<\/strong> has been as quick as 47.45 this year.<\/p>\n

But perhaps most dangerous is 16-year-old Romanian David<\/strong> Popovici<\/strong>, who crushed his 200 free best time in the final and placed fourth in 1:44.68, missing out on a bronze medal by just 0.02. Check Popovici\u2019s progression in the 200 free: in May, 1:48.38 at the European Championships; June, 1:46.15; earlier in July at the European Junior Championships, 1:45.26; and in Tokyo, he is under 1:44. More than 3.5 seconds in three months.<\/p>\n

At those same European Junior Championships, Popovici swam a 47.30 in the 100 free, and given that he handled the pressure of his first Olympic final with such ease, he should be ready to go for this 100. So yes, he presents Dressel a significant challenge.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to see anyone mounting a serious challenge to an on-form Dressel in the 50 freestyle or 100 butterfly (although Milak might have something to say in that race), but the blue-ribband event is tight, as always. In Tokyo, Dressel will aim to become just the third man to ever win individual Olympic gold in three or more different events, a feat only Mark Spitz<\/strong> (four in 1972) and Michael Phelps<\/strong> (four in 2004, five in 2008) have previously pulled off.<\/p>\n

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Banner Race for Russia\u2026 Oh Wait, the Russian Olympic Committee<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\"Jul

Evgeny Rylov with his 100 backstroke gold medal — Photo Courtesy: Rob Schumacher\/USA Today Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

When Evgeny Rylov<\/strong> won Olympic gold in the men\u2019s 100 back<\/a>, he became the first Olympic gold medalist in men\u2019s swimming hailing from Russia since Alexander Popov<\/strong> (50 and 100 free) and Denis Pankratov<\/strong> (100 and 200 fly) each doubled up at the 1996 Games. The Russians went 1-2 Kliment Kolesnikov<\/strong> claiming second, and that\u2019s a feat only accomplished by either Russia or the Soviet Union at the boycotted 1980 Olympics.<\/p>\n

So it\u2019s a huge accomplishment for that country, and those medals were won for\u2026 the Russian Olympic Committee. Russia, of course, is officially-but-not-really banned from these Olympics as punishment for the country\u2019s state-sponsored doping program. But the sheer number of Russian athletes competing and the warmup jackets that look an awful lot like the Russian flag and the Russian-composed song played instead of the country\u2019s national anthem suggest that \u201cban\u201d was toothless.<\/p>\n

This is not to take anything away from Rylov or Kolesnikov, who would have been to young to be affected by the country\u2019s state-sponsored doping program. Certainly, the situation creates an odd feeling for the many Russian athletes still present and competing \u2013 and evidently having success \u2013 in Tokyo. As Rylov said after the race (according to the Wall Street Journal<\/em><\/a>), \u201cMaybe deep in my heart I do feel sad that we couldn’t hear the national anthem on the podium.\u201d<\/p>\n