{"id":481942,"date":"2021-07-22T03:10:27","date_gmt":"2021-07-22T10:10:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=481942"},"modified":"2021-07-27T01:14:34","modified_gmt":"2021-07-27T08:14:34","slug":"tokyo-olympic-predictions-day-four-calls-for-kristof-milak-dominance-in-200-butterfly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/tokyo-olympic-predictions-day-four-calls-for-kristof-milak-dominance-in-200-butterfly\/","title":{"rendered":"Tokyo Olympic Predictions: Day Four Calls For Kristof Milak Dominance in 200 Butterfly"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tokyo Olympic Predictions: Day Four Calls For Kristof Milak Dominance in 200 Butterfly<\/strong><\/p>\n

The fourth day of the Olympic Games<\/a> will feature an anticipated duel between Australia’s Ariarne Titmus<\/strong> and American Katie<\/strong> Ledecky<\/strong> in the 200-meter freestyle, along with the first men’s 200 butterfly without Michael Phelps<\/strong> since the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta. Here are Swimming World’s predictions for the Day Four finals. All picks were made prior to the start of competition.<\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s Note:<\/strong> Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time (e.g., New York) and 16 hours ahead of Pacific Daylight Time (e.g., Los Angeles). This year\u2019s Olympic finals (and semifinals) will be swum at Tokyo in the morning, with prelims swum the previous evening. So, for a finals session beginning at 10:30 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Wednesday morning, July 28, that would be 9:30 p.m. EDT (6:30 p.m. PDT) on Tuesday evening, July 27.<\/p>\n

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Day Four Finals<\/h2>\n

Wednesday, July 28
\n(10:30 a.m. – 1:05 p.m. Japan Standard Time)<\/p>\n

Women’s 200 Freestyle<\/h3>\n

World Record:<\/strong> Federica Pellegrini, Italy – Rome 7-29-09 – 1:52.98
\n2016 Olympic Champion:<\/strong> Katie Ledecky, USA – 1:53.73<\/p>\n

The last three Olympic champs in the women\u2019s 200 free will be facing off against one another in Tokyo: Italy\u2019s Federica Pellegrini<\/strong> (2008), plus the USA\u2019s Allison Schmitt<\/strong> (2012) and Katie Ledecky<\/strong> (2016), will be in the race.<\/p>\n

\"federica-pellegrini-centurions-\"

Photo Courtesy: Mine Kasapoglu \/ ISL<\/p><\/div>\n

Pellegrini has won the last two world titles in the women\u2019s 200 free and has proven to be one of the best game managers – always finding a way to perfectly pace this race to come out on top. But Pellegrini hasn\u2019t reached the Olympic podium since winning in Beijing, finishing fifth in London and fourth in Rio.<\/p>\n

But this year\u2019s favorite looks to be Australia\u2019s Ariarne Titmus<\/strong><\/a>, who came close to breaking Pellegrini\u2019s world record at the Australian Trials with a 1:53.09 Commonwealth record and is nearly a second-and-a-half faster than the rest of the world in 2021. This will likely be her second of three battles with Ledecky, and perhaps her best chance at winning gold.<\/p>\n

Also posing a medal threat is Hong Kong\u2019s Siobhan Haughey<\/strong>, who has a shot at becoming her country\u2019s first Olympic medalist.<\/p>\n

Predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold:<\/strong> Ariarne Titmus, Australia
\nSilver:<\/strong> Siobhan Haughey, Hong Kong
\nBronze:<\/strong> Katie Ledecky, USA<\/p>\n

Men’s 200 Butterfly<\/h3>\n

World Record:<\/strong> Kristof Milak, Hungary – Gwangju 7-24-19 – 1:50.73
\n2016 Olympic Champion:<\/strong> Michael Phelps, USA – 1:53.36<\/p>\n

Hungary\u2019s Kristof Milak<\/strong> set the world record in the 200 butterfly at the 2019 World Championships. He is a full three seconds faster than anyone in the world this year, just a few tenths off of his world-record performance. So the only question, really, is how fast can he go…and how much (or if) the pandemic year has affected his training heading into Tokyo.<\/p>\n

\"tomoru-honda\"

Photo Courtesy: Mine Kasapoglu\/ISL<\/p><\/div>\n

The bigger mystery of this event seems to be how the rest of the field will shake out, considering the fastest times of the next five swimmers are within a half-a-second of each other. Italy\u2019s Federico Burdisso<\/strong>, Hungary\u2019s Tamas Kenderesi<\/strong>, Bulgaria\u2019s Antani<\/strong> Ivanov<\/strong>, Japan\u2019s Tomoru Honda<\/strong> (who has home-pool advantage) and Taipei\u2019s Eddie Wang<\/strong> all are in the 1:54-range this year, while Germany\u2019s David Thomasberger<\/strong> and USA\u2019s Zach Harting<\/strong> are close behind.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, veterans James Guy<\/strong> of Great Britain and Daiya Seto<\/strong> of Japan are just off the pace, and Chad le Clos<\/strong> of South Africa is always looming, making this event one of the most competitive – even if the gold medal seems to be locked up.<\/p>\n

Predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold:<\/strong> Kristof Milak, Hungary
\nSilver:<\/strong> Tomoru Honda, Japan
\nBronze:<\/strong> Federico Burdisso, Italy<\/p>\n

Women’s 200 Individual Medley<\/h3>\n

World Record:<\/strong> Katinka Hosszu, Hungary – Kazan 8-3-15 – 2:06.12
\n2016 Olympic Champion:<\/strong> Katinka Hosszu, Hungary – 2:06.58<\/p>\n

One of the biggest uncertainties of the meet will be Katinka Hosszu<\/strong>, the reigning Olympic champion and four-time defending world champion in both the 200 and 400 IM. Earlier this year, Hosszu won gold in the 400 IM at the European Championships, but settled for silver in the 200 fly and bronze in the 200 IM. But as recently as 2019, she swam a 2:07.53 at the World Championships, quicker than any other active swimmer. Perhaps by late July, Hosszu will be close enough to top form to claim a medal, but she will have a large pack of challengers in close pursuit.<\/p>\n

\"kaylee-mckeown\"

Kaylee McKeown; Photo Courtesy: Swimming Australia<\/p><\/div>\n

Australia\u2019s Kaylee McKeown<\/strong> has been one of the most impressive swimmers across many events this year, and she leads the world rankings in the medley at 2:08.19. But McKeown just announced that she will skip the event in Tokyo. The only other swimmer under 2:09 this year who will be at the Olympics is the USA\u2019s Alex Walsh<\/strong>, who swam a 2:08.87 at the U.S. Olympic Trials.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s Sydney Pickrem<\/strong> likely has another 2:08 in the tank after winning bronze at the 2019 Worlds and swimming a 2:09.24 earlier this year, while Great Britain\u2019s Abbie Wood<\/strong> has been as quick as 2:09.23. Japan\u2019s duo of Yui Ohashi<\/strong> and Miho Teramura<\/strong> should also be in the mix.<\/p>\n

Predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold:<\/strong> Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
\nSilver:<\/strong> Sydney Pickrem, Canada
\nBronze:<\/strong> Alex Walsh, United States<\/p>\n

Women’s 1500 Freestyle<\/h3>\n

World Record:<\/strong> Katie Ledecky, USA – Indianapolis 5-16-18 – 15:20.48
\n2016 Olympic Champion:<\/strong> Olympic debut<\/p>\n

\"katie-ledecky-\"

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div>\n

Katie Ledecky<\/strong> has six of the top seven times in history. She went an easy-as-you-like 15:40 at the recent Olympic Trials. In a world where only two women have ever cracked 15:45 in the 1500, Ledecky has already visited the benthic depths beneath 15:30.<\/p>\n

Ledecky is the prohibitive favorite, as she is just about any time the American steps up to the blocks. Although reigning world champion Simona Quadarella<\/strong> has been 15:40, the Italian was just 15:48 in June. Australian Maddy Gough<\/strong> and China\u2019s Wang Jianjiahe<\/strong> have both gone 15:46 in the last year. Spiced by the history of being the first women\u2019s 1500 in Olympic history, the proposition is the same as ever: Bet against Ledecky at your own peril.<\/p>\n

Predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold:<\/strong> Katie Ledecky, USA
\nSilver:<\/strong> Simona Quadarella, Italy
\nBronze:<\/strong> Maddy Gough, Australia<\/p>\n

Men’s 800 Freestyle Relay<\/h3>\n

World Record:<\/strong> United States (Michael Phelps, Ricky Berens, David Walters, Ryan Lochte) – Rome 7-31-09 – 6:58.55
\n2016 Olympic Champion:<\/strong> United States (Conor Dwyer, Townley Haas, Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps) 7:00.66<\/p>\n

The United States has won the past four editions of this event, but it will not enter Tokyo as the favorite for the first time since 2004, when the Stars and Stripes upended Australia. The U.S. was third at the 2019 World Championships and does not feature a hammer, although Kieran Smith<\/strong> has significant upside. The potential of the United States might come down to whether the coaching staff utilizes Caeleb Dressel<\/strong>, and what the sprint star can deliver.<\/p>\n

\"duncan-scott-london-roar\"

Photo Courtesy: Mine Kasapoglu \/ ISL<\/p><\/div>\n

Great Britain is a threat for gold, helped greatly by the presence of a pair of sub-1:45 performers in Duncan Scott<\/strong> and Tom Dean<\/strong>. Matt Richards<\/strong> and James Guy<\/strong> are the other likely legs who round out a team with a superb combination of power and depth. Meanwhile, Russia is well-balanced and headlined by Martin Malyutin<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Australia, the reigning world champion, will turn to a lineup that will feature Alexander Graham<\/strong> and Kyle Chalmers<\/strong>, with Elijah<\/strong> Winnington<\/strong> and Thomas Neill<\/strong> also at the disposal of the coaches. Italy has the ability to play podium spoiler.<\/p>\n

Predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold:<\/strong> Great Britain
\nSilver:<\/strong> Australia
\nBronze:<\/strong> United States<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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