{"id":461407,"date":"2022-10-02T00:48:38","date_gmt":"2022-10-02T07:48:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=461407"},"modified":"2022-10-02T08:47:11","modified_gmt":"2022-10-02T15:47:11","slug":"which-stroke-is-truly-the-decider-in-the-individual-medley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/which-stroke-is-truly-the-decider-in-the-individual-medley\/","title":{"rendered":"Which Stroke Is Truly the Decider in the Individual Medley? (Stats Included)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Which Stroke Is Truly the Decider in the Individual Medley?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The individual medley events can be some of the most exciting races. With every stroke change, there is the potential for the shape of the race to completely change. All of a swimmer\u2019s strengths and weaknesses are on display, and this opens up many different possibilities for how a race can go.<\/p>\n

We often think that the breaststroke leg is where the biggest lead changes happen. But this is not always the case. For example, at the 2016 U.S. Olympic Trials, Jay Litherland<\/strong><\/a> made his big move on Ryan Lochte<\/strong> on the freestyle leg. And over the years, there have been plenty of IMers who had breaststroke as their “weaker” stroke (most notably, Michael Phelps<\/strong>). So, which of the strokes really makes the biggest difference in the IM? Let\u2019s find out if there is a clear answers.<\/p>\n

Methodology<\/h3>\n

Splits were taken from the top 16 finishers in the 200 and 400 IM at the 2017-19 NCAA championships (both men and women), meaning that all the data is from short course yards. Prelims and finals swims were included, in order to balance swimmers who fell off in finals or went easier in prelims. This approach provided 96 data points in each event.<\/p>\n

In order to determine which splits had the greatest variation, we will look at the spread and standard deviation. This will give a good idea of where there is the most average difference between swimmers.<\/p>\n

Spread<\/h3>\n

The first results I looked at were the ranges between the fastest and slowest splits in each data set. Results are in the table below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nW 200 IM<\/td>\nM 200 IM<\/td>\nW 400 IM<\/td>\nM 400 IM<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fly<\/td>\n2.63<\/td>\n2.01<\/td>\n4.33<\/td>\n3.81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Back<\/td>\n3.48<\/td>\n3.10<\/td>\n5.96<\/td>\n4.87<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Breast<\/td>\n4.28<\/td>\n3.75<\/td>\n7.91<\/td>\n6.78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Free<\/td>\n2.46<\/td>\n2.23<\/td>\n6.25<\/td>\n5.36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"brooke-forde-\"

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div>\n

Already, we see that breaststroke has the largest range for all four events. However, the data gets more interesting when looking for the second-highest range. For shorter events, backstroke had the second largest range, but for longer events, it was freestyle. This was ultimately because of a couple of slower times in the 400 IMs, indicating that swimmers were fading. For example, in the women\u2019s 400 IM, there was one freestyle split of 1:00.42, but nobody else was slower than 59 seconds.<\/p>\n

For a better measure of the average spread, I looked at the difference between the 25th<\/sup> and 75th<\/sup> percentile times. Results are in the table below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nW 200 IM<\/td>\nM 200 IM<\/td>\nW 400 IM<\/td>\nM 400 IM<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fly<\/td>\n0.59<\/td>\n0.43<\/td>\n1.15<\/td>\n0.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Back<\/td>\n1.26<\/td>\n0.92<\/td>\n1.66<\/td>\n1.59<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Breast<\/td>\n1.47<\/td>\n1.04<\/td>\n2.36<\/td>\n1.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Free<\/td>\n0.62<\/td>\n0.62<\/td>\n1.21<\/td>\n1.43<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

The results here paint a clearer picture. While breaststroke still has the largest spread, backstroke is the second highest in all four events. Freestyle, meanwhile, is now much closer to having the smallest spread. This indicates that freestyle splits are mostly packed into a smaller range, but have some splits that are much faster or slower than the average.<\/p>\n

Standard Deviation<\/h3>\n

To continue getting a better understanding of the average variation from the mean, I looked at the standard deviations. The standard deviation gives a better idea of the average difference from the mean, rather than just looking at the difference between two arbitrarily chosen data points. Results are in the table below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nW 200 IM<\/td>\nM 200 IM<\/td>\nW 400 IM<\/td>\nM 400 IM<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fly<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\n0.32<\/td>\n0.84<\/td>\n0.78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Back<\/td>\n0.83<\/td>\n0.62<\/td>\n1.22<\/td>\n1.14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Breast<\/td>\n0.93<\/td>\n0.71<\/td>\n1.61<\/td>\n1.37<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Free<\/td>\n0.47<\/td>\n0.47<\/td>\n1.04<\/td>\n0.99<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

These results back up the idea that breaststroke features the most variable of the strokes. Backstroke is a close second, especially in the 200 distances, with freestyle seeming to be the third most variable and butterfly the least variable.<\/p>\n

Analysis<\/h3>\n

All three measures indicated that breaststroke has the most variation of the four strokes in the IM. This means that we can safely say that breaststroke is the stroke that does the most, on average, to change the shape of a race.<\/p>\n

The data only comprises three years, but the trends were clear from the first 16 data points and there is no reason to believe they would change by adding more years into the mix. It may have been interesting to include all swimmers rather than just swimmers in the top 16. This would have added more variability to freestyle specifically, because many of these swimmers were fading toward the ends of their races. However, I wanted to mainly look at races where swimmers were at their best.<\/p>\n

Another limitation would the applicability of the data to long course swimming. Especially with short course being underwater-dominated, the variability in swimming speed may not be captured well with this data. Further analysis could be done to see if these trends hold in long course.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h3>\n

Ultimately, while breaststroke is the stroke with the most variability, that does not mean that you have to be a great breaststroker to swim IM. The IM races are great because they allow you to find a formula that works best with your strengths and weaknesses. For example, take a look at these (partial) results from prelims of the men\u2019s 2017 NCAAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nFly<\/td>\nBack<\/td>\nBreast<\/td>\nFree<\/td>\nTotal<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gunnar Bentz<\/td>\n50.79<\/td>\n56.46<\/td>\n1:01.60<\/td>\n49.77<\/td>\n3:38.62<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jonathan Roberts<\/td>\n48.79<\/td>\n53.78<\/td>\n1:04.39<\/td>\n51.95<\/td>\n3:38.91<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

These two swimmers swam completely different races. In fact, none of their splits are even remotely close. But in the end, they both swam 3:38 and made the A final. You do not need to be great at any one stroke to be an outstanding IMer, you just have to be strong in all four strokes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Which Stroke Is Truly the Decider in the Individual Medley? The individual medley events can be some of the most exciting races. With every stroke change, there is the potential<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36543,"featured_media":504589,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[17],"tags":[64649,48509,40779,6302,19138],"class_list":["post-461407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","tag-analysis","tag-college","tag-individual-medley","tag-michael-phelps","tag-ryan-lochte"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nWhich Stroke Is the Decider in the Individual Medley? 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