{"id":359862,"date":"2019-03-22T19:10:43","date_gmt":"2019-03-23T02:10:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=359862"},"modified":"2019-03-22T19:11:52","modified_gmt":"2019-03-23T02:11:52","slug":"will-stanford-overcome-cal-28-5-point-lead-going-into-women-ncaa-swimming-final-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/will-stanford-overcome-cal-28-5-point-lead-going-into-women-ncaa-swimming-final-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Stanford Overcome Cal’s 28.5-Point Lead Going Into NCAA Final Day?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Stanford women will walk through the doors of the Lee and Joe Jamail Swim Center Saturday morning at the women’s NCAA swimming championships in an unusual spot\u2014second place. Only the three seniors on the Cardinal NCAA roster, Ella<\/strong> Eastin<\/strong>, Kim Williams<\/strong> and Leah<\/strong> Stevens<\/strong>, have experienced that before at a national championships.<\/p>\n

In both 2017 and 2018, the two years of the Katie<\/strong> Ledecky<\/strong>\/Simone Manuel<\/strong>-era at Stanford, the team won the 800 free relay Wednesday night before extending the lead on Thursday and pulling away. This year, Stanford did win the 800 free relay, but since then, their cross-bay rival California Golden Bears have been the meet\u2019s dominant squad.<\/p>\n

Heading into the last day of competition, Cal has the overall lead with 328 points, 28.5 ahead of Stanford with 299.5. No other team is in contention, with Michigan (233), Louisville (163) and NC State (141) rounding out the top five.<\/p>\n

The recent history of Division I NCAA swimming championships has included very little in the way of drama. Before Stanford\u2019s domination of the last two years, a Missy Franklin<\/strong>-led Cal team cruised to a title in 2015, with only Georgia\u2019s tight win over Stanford in 2016 in between. It\u2019s been much of the same on the men\u2019s side, where Texas has captured four straight national titles, three in dominant fashion before a 11.5-point victory over Cal last season.<\/p>\n

Even with Stanford\u2019s massive losses from last season\u2014Ledecky, Manuel, Ally Howe<\/strong> and Janet Hu<\/strong> key among them\u2014few saw any legitimate threat to Stanford in 2019. Cal, which finished second each of the last two years, lost superstar Kathleen Baker to the professional ranks, and despite Cal sweeping all five relays at this year\u2019s Pac-12 championships, Stanford finished 423 points ahead of the Bears in the team standings.<\/p>\n

\"abbey-weitzeil-\"

Abbey Weitzeil — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div>\n

But over the course of Thursday and Friday action in Austin, Cal has been the dominant team, and it hasn\u2019t been particularly close. Abbey Weitzeil<\/strong> has reached and surpassed her best times from high school, and she has provided the decisive anchor leg in both Cal relay wins, including a 20.49 split in the 200 free relay and then a 20.45 in the 200 medley relay.<\/p>\n

Weitzeil\u2019s 50 free American record was impressive, but more significant was qualifying for the A-final in the 200 free\u2014an event where she finished 18th as a freshman and scratched as a sophomore. Weitzeil ended up finishing fourth in the final.<\/p>\n

Katie<\/strong>\u00a0McLaughlin<\/strong> has been excellent on relays and in qualifying for the 100 fly and 200 free finals back to back, and so has her fellow senior Amy Bilquist<\/strong>, who finished sixth in the 50 free and second in the 100 back after qualifying for just one A-final last year and none the year before.<\/p>\n

But Weitzeil, McLaughlin and Bilquist were known factors beforehand. The X-factors in this Cal surge have been a pair of freshman, Izzy Ivey<\/strong> and Ema<\/strong> Rajic<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Ivey, of course, is not a new face to the national swimming scene, having represented the U.S. internationally with the National Junior Team, and she arrived at Cal midyear. She arrived in Austin seeded 10th in the 200 IM, eighth in the 100 fly and 44th in the 100 back. She ended up finishing ninth in the 200 IM, sixth in the 100 fly and fourth in the 100 back.<\/p>\n

Yes, fourth. After being seeded 44th. Ivey capped off Cal\u2019s massive eight-up individual performance Friday morning with a 50.88 in the 100 back, annihilating her previous lifetime best of 52.19. And then in finals, just 40 minutes after finishing sixth in the 100 fly, Ivey took fourth in the 100 back, dropping another four tenths with a 50.42. Later that evening, she filled in for Bilquist leading off Cal\u2019s 200 medley relay, which went on to finish second.<\/p>\n

Rajic, meanwhile, came to Cal from Urbana, Ill., having never broken 1:00 in the 100 breast. Seeded 26th in the 100 breast entering the meet at 59.68, Rajic qualified for the A-final and finished eighth after swimming a time of 58.97 in prelims. Her 58.53 split on Cal\u2019s 400 medley relay gave McLaughlin and Weitzeil a chance on the last two legs.<\/p>\n

\"brooke-forde-\"

Brooke Forde — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div>\n

So far for the Cardinal, Brooke Forde<\/strong> has delivered a shocking win in the 500 free, and Eastin and Forde finished first and third, respectively, in the 400 IM, with freshman Allie Raab also pitching in with a key seventh-place finish. Coming off her breakthrough 2018 at the Commonwealth Games and Pan Pacific Championships, freshman Taylor Ruck<\/strong> has been excellent as advertised.<\/p>\n

But Ruck is also the closest thing Stanford has to a pure sprinter, so she took on anchor duties on the 400 medley relay. Eastin, hardly known for her backstroke abilities, has been forced into duty leading off the medley relays. Freshman Amalie Fackenthal<\/strong>, who finished 42nd in the 100 fly, is the Cardinal\u2019s top sprint butterflyer.<\/p>\n

Yes, Stanford misses Manuel, but just as glaring are the holes left by the graduations of Howe and Hu. At each of the last four NCAA championships, Howe led off both medley relays and Hu swam fly. Raab, Grace Zhao<\/strong> and Zoe Bartel<\/strong> have all taken turns at breaststroke duty, but Stanford hasn\u2019t had a consistent force there since Sarah Haase graduated in 2016. The Cardinal ended up sixth in the 400 medley relay and seventh in the 200.<\/p>\n

Additionally, Katie Drabot<\/strong>, Stanford\u2019s second-highest returning scorer from last year, has struggled. After finishing second in the 500 free and fourth in the 200 free last year, she ended up 11th in the 500 and 18th in the 200.<\/p>\n

And yet, despite all that has swung this meet in Cal\u2019s favor, Stanford still has a great chance to end up national champions again. Psych sheet projections for Saturday show the Cardinal out-scoring the Bears by 70 points. Key to that run will be Ruck and Lucie Nordmann<\/strong> in the 200 back, where both are seeded in the top-five, and the trio of Eastin, Drabot and Forde in the 200 fly.<\/p>\n

\"teri-mckeever-\"

Cal coach Teri McKeever with freshman Cassidy Bayer — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div>\n

But Cal has some room to improve based on the psych sheet. Swimmers in position to outscore their projections include Keaton Blovad<\/strong> in the 200 back, Robin Neumann<\/strong> in the 100 free, Rajic in the 200 breast and McLaughlin in the 200 fly. Friday set up to be Cal\u2019s best day, but it will take another big morning performance to hold off Stanford.<\/p>\n

The Cardinal and the Golden Bears meet three times each spring, in an early-February dual meet, at the Pac-12 championships and at the NCAA championships. That means this year\u2019s Stanford\u2019s three seniors, two-time national champions and one-time national runners-up, have beaten Cal in all 11 previous meetings.<\/p>\n

But for the first time in three years, the Stanford women will have work to do Saturday to secure a championship, and the Cal women will have a chance. On Saturday, expect plenty of drama in the battle for the NCAA title.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Stanford women will walk through the doors of the Lee and Joe Jamail Swim Center Saturday morning at the women’s NCAA swimming championships in an unusual spot\u2014second place. Only<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":359897,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,6,17],"tags":[73141,31769,50229,36913,57237,28929,41020,34417,53429,37274,27847,75337,26466,41703,25031,26463,32980,38025,25504,39594,25136,40656,25400,32614,3136,40839],"class_list":["post-359862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-college","category-commentary","tag-2019-ncaa-division-i-womens-swimming-and-diving-championships","tag-abbey-weitzeil","tag-allie-raab","tag-ally-howe","tag-amalie-fackenthal","tag-amy-bilquist","tag-brooke-forde","tag-ella-eastin","tag-ema-rajic","tag-grace-zhao","tag-greg-meehan","tag-izzy-ivey","tag-janet-hu","tag-katie-drabot","tag-katie-ledecky","tag-katie-mclaughlin","tag-keaton-blovad","tag-kim-williams","tag-leah-stevens","tag-lucie-nordmann","tag-missy-franklin","tag-robin-neumann","tag-simone-manuel","tag-taylor-ruck","tag-teri-mckeever","tag-zoe-bartel"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nWill 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